About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on price pressure from the world market. Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia has offered lower prices but it has become difficult to buy from Russian producers who are holding out for higher internal prices. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling. European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well. Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light to moderate snow. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March. Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 463, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 469, 477, and 481 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 526, 520, and 517 March, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 540 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on follow through selling. The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals still suggest higher prices are coming, even with the increased ending stocks estimates. Some producers are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The export sales report today was considered very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1328 and 1299 March. Support is at 1316, 1308, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1335, 1343, and 1350 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower. Corn have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was solid last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 286, 284, and 281 March. Support is at 293, 288, and 283 March, and resistance is at 302, 307, and 310 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher and Soybean Oil was lower. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, USDA has kept away from showing how much buying is anticipated and news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. China is now reporting fewer new cases of the virus by the day so hopes are around that the country will keep to its economic commitments. That changed yesterday as China changed reporting requirements and reports of new cases of the virus took a big jump. Deaths from the virus also increased. Factories are now open and people are working again. Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina is expected to get rains in the near term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 908 and 917 March. Support is at 889, 878, and 8676 March, and resistance is at 902, 910, and 913 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was higher after holding supportareas on the daily charts. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 457.00, and 448.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2530, and 2480 April, with resistance at 2710, 2750, and 2800 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Snow today, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +48 Mar
+155 Mar
+100 Mar +57 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +54 Mar
+105 Mar
+57 Mar

April +54 May
+105 May
+49 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 11.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 429.56 -30.24 March 2020 dn 2.20
Track Thunder Bay 469.40 10.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
Track Vancouver 480.40 21.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 650.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 652.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Feb 2,700.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M200.1350)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 93,351 lots, or 3.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,425 3,487 3,425 3,467 3,464 3,448 -16 54 1,265
May-20 4,149 4,157 4,121 4,139 4,188 4,139 -49 85,899 112,661
Jul-20 – – – 4,151 4,168 4,151 -17 0 26
Sep-20 4,120 4,120 4,072 4,078 4,109 4,083 -26 7,233 20,732
Nov-20 3,960 3,960 3,950 3,958 3,961 3,956 -5 4 268
Jan-21 3,977 3,998 3,971 3,980 3,998 3,984 -14 161 1,135
Corn
Turnover: 374,796 lots, or 7.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,882 1,894 1,874 1,887 1,882 1,877 -5 14,377 14,978
May-20 1,924 1,927 1,916 1,919 1,925 1,919 -6 271,673 580,101
Jul-20 1,945 1,945 1,937 1,940 1,944 1,940 -4 13,050 45,340
Sep-20 1,970 1,971 1,962 1,967 1,971 1,966 -5 69,016 226,463
Nov-20 1,986 1,987 1,980 1,981 1,987 1,982 -5 2,360 2,997
Jan-21 1,998 1,998 1,991 1,995 1,997 1,994 -3 4,320 4,943
Soymeal
Turnover: 904,446 lots, or 24.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,640 2,653 2,631 2,642 2,614 2,643 29 5,913 12,442
May-20 2,687 2,689 2,657 2,668 2,670 2,671 1 603,097 1,305,205
Jul-20 2,715 2,718 2,689 2,697 2,702 2,702 0 36,801 64,292
Aug-20 2,742 2,746 2,724 2,737 2,731 2,734 3 1,814 2,447
Sep-20 2,763 2,767 2,742 2,747 2,750 2,751 1 248,563 1,164,028
Nov-20 2,786 2,787 2,767 2,772 2,773 2,776 3 4,482 1,801
Dec-20 2,804 2,810 2,795 2,798 2,801 2,800 -1 28 288
Jan-21 2,817 2,818 2,799 2,801 2,803 2,805 2 3,748 18,166
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,480,788 lots, or 81.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 6,182 6,168 6,182 14 0 0
Mar-20 5,960 5,960 5,850 5,902 5,956 5,888 -68 10 109
Apr-20 5,758 5,758 5,758 5,758 5,784 5,758 -26 1 3
May-20 5,576 5,576 5,474 5,508 5,592 5,516 -76 1,358,460 435,051
Jun-20 – – – 5,492 5,498 5,492 -6 0 5
Jul-20 5,418 5,418 5,418 5,418 5,480 5,418 -62 1 304
Aug-20 – – – 5,514 5,588 5,514 -74 0 6
Sep-20 5,504 5,520 5,434 5,436 5,534 5,470 -64 120,334 102,070
Oct-20 – – – 5,496 5,496 5,496 0 0 3
Nov-20 5,298 5,454 5,298 5,454 5,544 5,376 -168 2 5
Dec-20 – – – 5,522 5,540 5,522 -18 0 159
Jan-21 5,420 5,442 5,376 5,376 5,424 5,410 -14 1,980 3,069
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 463,035 lots, or 27.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,940 5,954 5,854 5,854 5,846 5,920 74 4 16
May-20 5,968 5,974 5,900 5,904 6,000 5,926 -74 390,280 381,351
Jul-20 5,988 5,988 5,960 5,960 6,076 5,978 -98 3 418
Aug-20 6,056 6,056 6,056 6,056 6,086 6,056 -30 2 2
Sep-20 6,100 6,114 6,034 6,038 6,138 6,064 -74 71,595 176,575
Nov-20 6,142 6,148 6,142 6,148 6,198 6,144 -54 5 215
Dec-20 6,216 6,216 6,176 6,176 6,254 6,196 -58 2 8
Jan-21 6,228 6,240 6,162 6,162 6,274 6,186 -88 1,144 8,227
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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