About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Feb 13
For the week ended Feb 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 643.1 44.0 21908.8 17908.8 5294.1 270.9
hrw 294.2 0.0 8169.1 5578.8 1908.1 80.9
srw 11.7 20.0 2202.3 2277.1 393.2 25.2
hrs 197.7 24.0 6308.8 5504.2 1576.6 83.0
white 132.4 0.0 4407.3 4128.8 1218.8 20.9
durum 7.0 0.0 821.2 419.9 197.4 61.0
corn 968.8 0.0 23759.4 32287.4 11869.4 1258.9
soybeans 644.8 6.3 32952.6 30369.1 5504.9 316.6
soymeal 234.2 0.0 7515.6 6909.7 3630.2 87.3
soyoil 39.1 0.0 641.5 405.9 298.6 0.5
upland cotton 350.9 57.3 13197.4 10878.8 7329.9 1142.9
pima cotton 10.9 0.0 440.5 467.2 227.8 35.0
sorghum 17.6 0.0 1173.2 476.6 284.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 48.8 58.3 15.8 30.5
rice 136.0 0.0 2538.2 1907.5 793.2 0.0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on chart considerations. There were some ideas that the markets had been oversold in reaction to the USDA reports. Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia has offered lower prices but it has become difficult to buy from Russian producers who are holding out for higher internal prices. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling. European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well. Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina. USDA made no real changes to its US supply and demand data and made very few production cuts in its monthly world data. It made no cuts in most major exporting countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light to moderate snow in the north late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 532, 529, and 513 March. Support is at 538, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 464, 459, and 453 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 528, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 538, 540, and 541 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as selling developed in a delayed reaction to the USDA monthly supply and demand updates. USDA increased ending stocks for Rice and Long Grain and really increased ending stocks for medium and short grain Rice. The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals still suggest higher prices are coming, even with the increased ending stocks estimates. Some producers are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1328 and 1299 March. Support is at 1335, 1326, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1357, 1374, and 1386 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher along with the outside markets. The monthly reports showed static production and increased ethanol demand against reduced export demand. Ending stocks were left unchanged. World data showed reduced ending stocks. Both markets have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 302, 298, and 295 March, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher. USDA showed increased domestic crush and reduced ending stocks but also much larger production for Brazil. The domestic data was price positive but was offset by the world data. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, USDA has kept away from showing how much buying is anticipated and news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. China is now reporting fewer new cases of the virus by the day so hopes are around tthat the country will keep to its economic commitments. Factories are now open and people are working again. Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina is expected to get rains in the near term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 908 and 912 March. Support is at 878, 876, and 869 March, and resistance is at 903, 910, and 913 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3170, 3190, and 3210 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher along with the price action in the outside markets. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little lower on selling from speculators. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 461.00, 457.00, and 448.00 March, with resistance at 465.00, 466.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2670, 2580, and 2530 April, with resistance at 2750, 2800, and 2890 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Snow today, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +48 Mar
+155 Mar
+100 Mar +55 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +55 Mar
+105 Mar
+50 Mar

April +55 May
+105 May
+45 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 11.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 429.56 -30.24 March 2020 dn 2.20
Track Thunder Bay 469.40 10.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
Track Vancouver 480.40 21.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 682.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 677.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 637.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 680.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 655.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 632.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change T raded
Feb 2,700.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=M200.1390)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 265,381 lots, or 11.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,465 3,487 3,421 3,445 3,422 3,464 42 110 1,269
May-20 4,166 4,238 4,138 4,149 4,157 4,188 31 245,247 111,932
Jul-20 4,167 4,190 4,140 4,140 4,133 4,168 35 5 26
Sep-20 4,040 4,150 4,040 4,087 4,064 4,109 45 19,060 21,430
Nov-20 3,940 3,993 3,925 3,961 3,920 3,961 41 70 269
Jan-21 3,965 4,022 3,959 3,977 3,953 3,998 45 889 1,090
Corn
Turnover: 217,519 lots, or 4.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,880 1,890 1,879 1,886 1,895 1,882 -13 6,568 26,933
May-20 1,924 1,928 1,921 1,926 1,925 1,925 0 147,053 586,741
Jul-20 1,940 1,948 1,940 1,945 1,942 1,944 2 11,051 43,033
Sep-20 1,970 1,973 1,968 1,972 1,970 1,971 1 48,360 233,446
Nov-20 1,984 1,990 1,984 1,990 1,987 1,987 0 918 2,024
Jan-21 1,997 2,000 1,994 1,999 1,996 1,997 1 3,569 3,827
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,283,983 lots, or 34.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,598 2,644 2,598 2,639 2,598 2,614 16 8,543 14,347
May-20 2,644 2,688 2,643 2,684 2,650 2,670 20 877,635 1,319,851
Jul-20 2,666 2,716 2,666 2,715 2,682 2,702 20 65,292 61,030
Aug-20 2,713 2,755 2,713 2,755 2,715 2,731 16 7,428 2,518
Sep-20 2,731 2,767 2,728 2,765 2,735 2,750 15 307,717 1,140,207
Nov-20 2,760 2,792 2,759 2,792 2,761 2,773 12 11,648 1,957
Dec-20 2,792 2,815 2,791 2,812 2,783 2,801 18 32 273
Jan-21 2,789 2,818 2,786 2,815 2,789 2,803 14 5,688 18,401
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,618,165 lots, or 90.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 6,168 6,168 6,168 0 0 0
Mar-20 5,960 6,010 5,910 5,958 6,040 5,956 -84 70 111
Apr-20 5,770 5,798 5,770 5,798 5,854 5,784 -70 6 4
May-20 5,630 5,652 5,522 5,578 5,620 5,592 -28 1,492,111 416,373
Jun-20 5,486 5,524 5,486 5,514 5,502 5,498 -4 5 5
Jul-20 – – – 5,480 5,480 5,480 0 0 304
Aug-20 – – – 5,588 5,592 5,588 -4 0 6
Sep-20 5,550 5,580 5,478 5,524 5,546 5,534 -12 124,238 89,894
Oct-20 – – – 5,496 5,496 5,496 0 0 3
Nov-20 5,544 5,544 5,544 5,544 5,490 5,544 54 1 6
Dec-20 5,480 5,584 5,480 5,546 5,542 5,540 -2 6 159
Jan-21 5,444 5,466 5,388 5,430 5,426 5,424 -2 1,728 3,031
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 614,522 lots, or 37.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,804 5,974 5,800 5,818 5,950 5,846 -104 8 16
May-20 6,074 6,076 5,942 5,974 6,048 6,000 -48 516,731 378,744
Jul-20 6,076 6,076 6,076 6,076 6,054 6,076 22 1 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,086 6,086 6,086 0 0 2
Sep-20 6,180 6,190 6,078 6,114 6,152 6,138 -14 96,414 177,258
Nov-20 6,196 6,204 6,196 6,204 6,284 6,198 -86 6 210
Dec-20 6,262 6,262 6,248 6,248 6,284 6,254 -30 2 7
Jan-21 6,270 6,308 6,206 6,244 6,266 6,274 8 1,360 8,092
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322