About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Tuesday and how the
government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street
Journal Survey.
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Tuesday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range January
Corn 1,892 1,856 1,667-2,017 1,892
Soybeans 425 448 320-586 475
Wheat 940 953 900-999 965
****
World 2019-20 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 296.8 297.5 295.0-299.5
Soybeans 98.9 97.2 94.2-102.9 Wheat 288.0 287.2 280.0-288.8
****
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
2019-20
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 101.0 100 8 99.0-101.0
Soybeans 125.0 123.8 122.5-125.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
2019-20
Tuesday’s
Estimate Average Range
Corn 50.0 49.8 48.0-51.0
Soybeans 53.0 53.1 52.5-54.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Feb 11
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18 : 19/20 18/19 17/18 : 19/20 18/19 17/18
Soybeans 425.0 909.0 438.0 :151.50 148.27 153.07 : 339.40 358.65 342.09
Brazil na na : 77.00 74.59 76.14 : 125.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na : 8.20 9.10 2.13 : 53.00 55.30 37.80
China na na : 0.13 0.12 0.13 : 18.10 15.97 15.28
Soyoil 1,515 1,775 1,995 : 11.85 10.97 10.54 : 56.95 55.74 55.12
Corn 1,892 2,221 2,140 :165.77 181.63 148.19 : 1,112 1,123 1,080
China na na : 0.02 0.02 0.02 : 260.77 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na : 33.50 36.00 22.47 : 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa na na : 2.00 1.10 2.07 : 14.50 11.80 13.10
Cotton 5.40 4.85 4.20 : 43.54 41.35 41.51 : 121.33 118.60 123.78
All Wheat 940 1,080 1,099 :182.82 173.54 182.47 : 763.95 731.45 762.88
China na na : 1.10 1.01 1.00 : 133.59 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na : 32.00 23.31 23.38 : 154.00 136.86 151.13
Canada na na : 23.50 24.40 22.00 : 32.35 32.20 30.38
Argentina na na : 13.00 12.19 12.73 : 19.00 19.50 18.50
Australia na na : 8.20 9.01 13.85 : 15.60 17.30 20.94
Russia na na : 34.00 35.84 41.43 : 73.50 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na : 20.50 16.02 17.78 : 29.00 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 40.0 64.0 35.0 : na na na
Barley 88.0 87.0 94.0 : na na na
Oats 36.0 38.0 41.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 30.0 44.9 29.4 : 44.81 43.71 47.22 : 496.22 499.18 494.83

DJ Brazil Raises 2019-2020 Soybean Forecast to 123.2M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecasts for soybean and corn production for the 2019-2020 growing season amid an improved outlook for productivity helped by good weather in some areas.
Brazilian farmers will grow a record 123.2 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting is close to complete, an increase from the 122.2 million forecast in January. The country grew 115 million tons of soybeans in the 2018-2019 season.
Conab estimated an increase in productivity of 4.4% from the 2018-2019 season. The improved efficiency, plus favorable weather in some states will result in Brazil’s seventh record crop in 10 years. The country’s farmers have increased the area planted with soybeans in 13 consecutive seasons.
That history, combined with rising productivity and the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, will push Brazil ahead of the U.S. as the world’s biggest producer of soybeans for only the second time in history. Chinese buyers have been favoring Brazilian exports since the trade dispute began, and American output of soybeans has declined as a result.
Brazil’s corn production is forecast to increase slightly from last year, after Conab raised its forecast from January. The country’s farmers will grow 100.5 million metric tons of corn in the 2019-2020 season, compared with 100 million tons a year earlier, according to Conab. In January the agency forecast a total corn crop of 98.7 million tons.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as the Egyptians bought from Romania at cheaper prices. Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia has also offered lower prices but it has become difficult to buy from Russian producers who are holding out for higher internal prices. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling. European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well. Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina. USDA made no real changes to its US supply and demand data and made very few production cuts in its monthly world data. It made no cuts in most major exporting countries.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see snow in the west today, then light to moderate snow in the north late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 532, 529, and 498 March. Support is at 539, 530, and 528 March, with resistance at 551, 556, and 566 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 466, 464, and 459 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 530, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 538, 540, and 541 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as selling developed in reaction to the USDA monthly supply and demand updates. USDA increased ending stocks for Rice and Long Grain and really increased ending stocks for medium and short grain Rice. The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals still suggest higher prices are coming, even with the increased ending stocks estimates. Prices are profitable for producers, but not many are selling as they are holding out for even higher prices. Some are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1386 and 1417 March. Support is at 1354, 1343, and 1335 March, with resistance at 1375, 1386, and 1400 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 12
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.82 9.36 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.52 9.97 0.00
Brokens 9.40 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower in reaction to the USDA reports. The monthly reports showed static production and increased ethanol demand against reduced export demand. Ending stocks were left unchanged. World data showed reduced ending stocks. Both markets have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 385, and 388 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 289 and 286 March. Support is at 298, 295, and 292 March, and resistance is at 304, 310, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans and Soybean Oil trading lower and Soybean Oil trading higher. Some selling developed in response to the USDA monthly supply and demand reports. USDA showed increased domestic crush and reduced ending stocks but also much larger production for Brazil. The domestic data was price positive but was offset by the world data. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, USDA has kept away from showing how much buying is anticipated and news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is expected to get rains in the near term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 878, 876, and 869 March, and resistance is at 889, 891, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower along with the price action in European Rapeseed Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little lower on selling from speculators. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much. Palm Oil is really in a liquidation mode right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 463.00, 465.00, and 466.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2700, 2630, and 2580 April, with resistance at 2800, 2890, and 2910 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow over the middle of the week, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +48 Mar
+160 Mar
+100 Mar +55 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +54 Mar
+105 Mar
+57 Mar

April +54 May +105 May
+45 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 11
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 11 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 11.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 429.56 -30.24 March 2020 dn 2.20
Track Thunder Bay 469.40 10.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
Track Vancouver 480.40 21.00 March 2020 dn 0.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 697.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 695.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 675.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 697.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 690.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change  Traded
Feb 2,780.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 203.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1355)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 113,074 lots, or 4.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,421 3,467 3,416 3,417 3,432 3,422 -10 36 1,257
May-20 4,160 4,184 4,122 4,159 4,171 4,157 -14 107,113 113,705
Jul-20 – – – 4,133 4,133 4,133 0 0 26
Sep-20 4,068 4,081 4,038 4,072 4,067 4,064 -3 5,712 20,089
Nov-20 3,926 3,936 3,886 3,900 3,932 3,920 -12 12 241
Jan-21 3,959 3,965 3,933 3,960 3,950 3,953 3 201 812
Corn
Turnover: 310,142 lots, or 6.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,895 1,903 1,873 1,873 1,897 1,895 -2 4,254 30,573
May-20 1,924 1,931 1,921 1,923 1,925 1,925 0 216,150 586,353
Jul-20 1,934 1,947 1,934 1,941 1,940 1,942 2 13,054 42,377
Sep-20 1,965 1,975 1,964 1,970 1,966 1,970 4 71,182 236,847
Nov-20 1,987 1,991 1,984 1,984 1,984 1,987 3 1,445 2,115
Jan-21 1,998 2,003 1,993 1,994 1,994 1,996 2 4,057 3,644
Soymeal
Turnover: 752,012 lots, or 20.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,618 2,618 2,585 2,597 2,589 2,598 9 6,332 17,752
May-20 2,658 2,664 2,637 2,641 2,653 2,650 -3 481,921 1,313,785
Jul-20 2,685 2,695 2,669 2,674 2,685 2,682 -3 65,759 61,893
Aug-20 2,723 2,728 2,699 2,699 2,719 2,715 -4 5,006 2,601
Sep-20 2,741 2,747 2,720 2,725 2,738 2,735 -3 184,646 1,111,889
Nov-20 2,767 2,771 2,747 2,750 2,763 2,761 -2 4,877 1,947
Dec-20 2,791 2,793 2,770 2,770 2,786 2,783 -3 88 281
Jan-21 2,796 2,799 2,779 2,781 2,793 2,789 -4 3,383 19,271
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,356,216 lots, or 76.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 6,168 6,168 6,168 0 0 0
Mar-20 5,984 6,110 5,950 5,960 6,150 6,040 -110 272 132
Apr-20 5,908 5,908 5,812 5,842 6,010 5,854 -156 6 7
May-20 5,700 5,718 5,552 5,592 5,760 5,620 -140 1,228,689 424,246
Jun-20 5,496 5,534 5,492 5,498 5,720 5,502 -218 5 8
Jul-20 5,460 5,516 5,460 5,474 5,716 5,480 -236 7 304
Aug-20 – – – 5,592 5,634 5,592 -42 0 6
Sep-20 5,554 5,610 5,488 5,518 5,628 5,546 -82 125,975 85,351
Oct-20 – – – 5,496 5,576 5,496 -80 0 3
Nov-20 – – – 5,490 5,570 5,490 -80 0 6
Dec-20 5,554 5,556 5,522 5,526 5,556 5,542 -14 5 159
Jan-21 5,460 5,490 5,374 5,402 5,484 5,426 -58 1,257 2,981
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 517,019 lots, or 31.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 5,950 5,950 5,950 5,950 6,160 5,950 -210 1 19
May-20 6,106 6,120 5,996 6,044 6,146 6,048 -98 434,520 368,280
Jul-20 – – – 6,054 6,152 6,054 -98 0 415
Aug-20 – – – 6,086 6,086 6,086 0 0 2
Sep-20 6,192 6,218 6,096 6,146 6,216 6,152 -64 80,616 170,737
Nov-20 – – – 6,284 6,284 6,284 0 0 205
Dec-20 6,284 6,284 6,284 6,284 6,290 6,284 -6 1 5
Jan-21 6,288 6,324 6,206 6,254 6,324 6,266 -58 1,881 7,639
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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