Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on follow through speculative buying. The market doubts that China will take that much Cotton from the US even though they have in fact been buying. Traders also turned bearish on the coronavirus that could hamper two-way trade with the US and just about everyone else. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as no one inside the country is shopping for anything new. People in many big cities in China are afraid to go outside due to fears of contracting the virus.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some significant mixed precipitation through the middle of this week and Southeast areas could get big amounts of rain as well. Drier starting on Thursday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have scattered showers today, then drier weather. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.76 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 31,008 bales, from 28,224 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6710, 6680, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6840, 6910, and 6990 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was higher and moved back to the top end of the trading range. No real change was noted in the fundamentals of big supplies and bad demand. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Consumer demand has been lacking on the ideas of higher prices for FCOJ and on health concerns.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 92.00, and 91.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and slightly lower in London on a lack of news and despite ideas of good growing conditions in Brazil. The chart trends remain down in New York and in London due to the big production ideas. However, the ICO noted that demand remains very strong as well and that demand could outstrip supply in the next few weeks. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas over the weekend. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to be strong from the country due to the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to below normal temperatures through Thursday and near to above normal temperatures after that. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 97.00, 96.00, and 93.00 March, and resistance is at 103.00, 106.00 and 110.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1230 and 1160 March. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300, and 1320 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher as short Asian production continued to be the main feature. Trends are up in both markets. Current tight supplies, especially of White Sugar, are helping the market to rally. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand will also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol. That could change after Petrobras announced it was cutting the price of gasoline in its filling stations this week.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal through Thursday, then near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1560 and 1640 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1440 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 431.00 and 445.00 March. Support is at 420.00, 415.00, and 411.00 March, and resistance is at 434.00, 437.00, and 440.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher on ideas of less supplies available to the market. Ivory Coast said that arrivals are now 1.435 million tons, down slightly from last year. Arrivals have been consistently ahead of last year until now. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big main crop harvest is possible in the region, but there are questions about how big the mid crop can be. The weather in Ivory Coast is now dry and increasingly warm. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa with Harmatan winds possibly increasing. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 3.310 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3100 March. Support is at 2850, 2820, and 2770 March, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 3010 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2120 and 2240 March. Support is at 1990, 1950, and 1940 March, with resistance at 2030, 2060, and 2090 March.