About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. February Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range January 2018-19
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA
Average Range January 2018-19
Corn 1,856 1,667-2,017 1,892 2,221
Soybeans 448 320-586 475 909
Wheat 953 900-999 965 1080
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,800 425 940
Allendale 1,832 320 958
DC Analysis 1,667 450 900
Doane 1,917 450 960
EDF Man 1,892 450 940
Futures INTL 1,847 420 940
Grain Cycles 1,812 400 940
Hueber Report 1,817 350 965
INTL FCStone 1,870 586 934
Sid Love Consulting 1,917 495 975
Midland Research 1,917 450 965
North Star 1,920 480 965
Prime Ag 1,850 450 950
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,910 475 965
RJ O’Brien 1,762 495 960
US Commodities 1,902 475 960
VantageRM 1,792 415 945
Western Milling 2,017 479 999
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,832 450 945

DJ February World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Tuesday at noon ET.
World 2019-20 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
USDA
Average Range January 2018-19
Corn 297.5 295.0-299.5 297.8 320.4
Soybeans 97.2 94.2-102.9 96.7 110.3
Wheat 287.2 280.0-288.8 288.1 278.1
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 295.0 98.0 286.0
Allendale 296.4 94.3 287.6
Doane 297.5 97.0 288.0
EDF Man 298.0 96.0 287.0
Futures INTL 297.9 94.2 287.3
Grain Cycles 297.0 95.5 288.0
Hueber Report 297.8 96.2 288.1
INTL FCStone 297.4 102.9 288.8
North Star 299.0 98.0 288.1
Prime-Ag 297.0 97.0 288.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 299.5 96.7 288.1
US Commodities 298.5 97.3 288.5
Western Milling 299.0 98.0 280.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 295.4 99.3 286.7

DJ February Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Tuesday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range
Corn 100.8 99.0-101.0
Soybeans 123.8 122.5-125.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 101.0 124.0
Allendale 101.0 123.0
DC Analysis 101.0 125.0
Doane 101.0 124.0
EDF Man 101.0 125.0
Futures INTL 101.0 124.0
Grain Cycles 101.0 123.0
Hueber Report 101.0 122.5
INTL FCStone 99.0 124.0
Midland Research 101.0 124.0
North Star 101.0 124.0
Prime Ag 101.0 123.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 101.0 123.0
US Commodities 101.0 123.5
Western Milling 100.0 125.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 100.5 123.5
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range
Corn 49.8 48.0-51.0
Soybeans 53.1 52.5-54.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 50.0 53.0
Allendale 50.0 53.0
DC Analysis 48.0 53.0
Doane 50.0 53.0
EDF Man 50.0 53.0
Futures INTL 51.0 53.0
Grain Cycles 50.0 53.0
Hueber Report 50.0 53.0
INTL FCStone 49.5 52.5
Midland Research 50.0 53.0
North Star 50.0 53.5
Prime Ag 50.0 53.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 50.0 53.0
US Commodities 51.0 53.5
Western Milling 48.0 54.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 50.0 53.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 10
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING FEB 06, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 02/06/2020 01/30/2020 02/07/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 5,337 1,796 122 24,795 6,852
CORN 769,390 562,380 752,758 11,494,229 23,249,026
FLAXSEED 24 100 24 520 242
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 400 0 2,766 1,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 77,553 18,092 84,378 1,226,620 680,762
SOYBEANS 603,852 1,373,502 1,150,863 27,217,697 22,728,608
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 523,713 435,720 562,706 17,185,178 15,390,307
Total 1,979,969 2,391,990 2,550,851 57,151,805 62,057,790
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Brazil Raises 2019-2020 Soybean Forecast to 123.2M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecasts for soybean and corn production for the 2019-2020 growing season amid an improved outlook for productivity helped by good weather in some areas.
Brazilian farmers will grow a record 123.2 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting is close to complete, an increase from the 122.2 million forecast in January. The country grew 115 million tons of soybeans in the 2018-2019 season.
Conab estimated an increase in productivity of 4.4% from the 2018-2019 season. The improved efficiency, plus favorable weather in some states will result in Brazil’s seventh record crop in 10 years. The country’s farmers have increased the area planted with soybeans in 13 consecutive seasons.
That history, combined with rising productivity and the trade conflict between the U.S. and China, will push Brazil ahead of the U.S. as the world’s biggest producer of soybeans for only the second time in history. Chinese buyers have been favoring Brazilian exports since the trade dispute began, and American output of soybeans has declined as a result.
Brazil’s corn production is forecast to increase slightly from last year, after Conab raised its forecast from January. The country’s farmers will grow 100.5 million metric tons of corn in the 2019-2020 season, compared with 100 million tons a year earlier, according to Conab. In January the agency forecast a total corn crop of 98.7 million tons.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower in very slow trading. Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia offered lower prices that got traded in the world market. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling. European prices have held better because of uncertain weather conditions in much of the continent, but overall have trended lower as well. Conditions continue to improve in Australia and Argentina.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get light precipitation today and then dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see snow in the west today, then light to moderate snow in the north late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 529 and 498 March. Support is at 551, 545, and 539 March, with resistance at 566, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 466, 464, and 459 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 531, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 540, 541, and 543 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher and made initial targets for the up move in the March contract. The trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals suggest higher prices are coming. Prices are profitable for producers, but not many are selling as they are holding out for even higher prices. Some are selling the next crop locking in 1200 plus prices on the Board. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1386 and 1417 March. Support is at 1355, 1343, and 1335 March, with resistance at 1374, 1386, and 1400 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower. It was another very quiet session. Both markets have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. However, the light test weights of the crop this year are forcing more bushels of Corn into feed rations and into ethanol processing. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report that showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 379, 377, and 375 March, and resistance is at 385, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 289 and 286 March. Support is at 298, 295, and 292 March, and resistance is at 304, 310, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans and Soybean Meal trading higher and Soybean Oil trading lower. There were some reports of Chinese buying interest to support futures yesterday. They might have bought up to 3 shipments of US Soybeans. These were not confirmed by USDA. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is expected to get rains in the near term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 876, 869, and 866 March, and resistance is at 889, 891, and 910 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 305.00 and 311.00 March Support is at 289.00, 287.00, and 286.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3170, and 3190 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little higher on short covering from speculators. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 457.00, 448.00, and 445.00 March, with resistance at 463.00, 465.00, and 466.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2700, 2630, and 2580 April, with resistance at 2800, 2890, and 2910 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow over the middle of the week, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +48 Mar
+162 Mar
+100 Mar +54 Mar
+12 Mar N/A
March +54 Mar
+105 Mar
+55 Mar

April +54 May +105 May
+45 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 10
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 10 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, February 10.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 431.06 -30.24 March 2020 up 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 469.80 10.00 March 2020 dn 1.50
Track Vancouver 480.80 21.00 March 2020 dn 1.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 705.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 702.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 650.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 707.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 705.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 680.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Aug/Sep 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 712.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,840.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 206.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1346)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,704 lots, or 6.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,438 3,445 3,377 3,420 3,429 3,432 3 162 1,257
May-20 4,165 4,204 4,148 4,157 4,132 4,171 39 147,263 114,974
Jul-20 4,127 4,140 4,127 4,140 4,140 4,133 -7 2 26
Sep-20 4,045 4,088 4,045 4,063 4,044 4,067 23 7,044 19,802
Nov-20 3,938 3,938 3,925 3,925 3,905 3,932 27 4 236
Jan-21 3,940 3,970 3,935 3,950 3,927 3,950 23 229 691
Corn
Turnover: 372,603 lots, or 7.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,900 1,901 1,893 1,897 1,903 1,897 -6 6,669 32,476
May-20 1,924 1,929 1,920 1,923 1,930 1,925 -5 265,358 583,845
Jul-20 1,944 1,944 1,936 1,937 1,944 1,940 -4 13,058 38,305
Sep-20 1,969 1,972 1,962 1,963 1,972 1,966 -6 82,325 219,098
Nov-20 1,986 1,986 1,980 1,983 1,988 1,984 -4 1,768 2,014
Jan-21 2,000 2,000 1,991 1,993 1,998 1,994 -4 3,425 3,384
Soymeal
Turnover: 762,162 lots, or 20.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,614 2,615 2,571 2,597 2,605 2,589 -16 12,701 20,032
May-20 2,665 2,667 2,644 2,657 2,653 2,653 0 455,725 1,299,023
Jul-20 2,683 2,697 2,678 2,689 2,684 2,685 1 124,812 55,217
Aug-20 2,726 2,726 2,713 2,726 2,717 2,719 2 7,137 2,520
Sep-20 2,738 2,747 2,732 2,744 2,736 2,738 2 151,873 1,099,872
Nov-20 2,771 2,771 2,756 2,770 2,763 2,763 0 5,756 1,906
Dec-20 2,785 2,791 2,782 2,788 2,786 2,786 0 327 296
Jan-21 2,797 2,801 2,788 2,796 2,790 2,793 3 3,831 18,586
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,215,324 lots, or 69.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 6,168 6,168 6,168 0 0 0
Mar-20 6,236 6,236 6,066 6,066 6,232 6,150 -82 326 193
Apr-20 6,062 6,062 5,986 5,986 6,056 6,010 -46 8 9
May-20 5,784 5,826 5,678 5,690 5,838 5,760 -78 1,111,110 431,220
Jun-20 5,720 5,720 5,720 5,720 5,766 5,720 -46 1 5
Jul-20 5,744 5,744 5,688 5,688 5,724 5,716 -8 2 303
Aug-20 – – – 5,634 5,704 5,634 -70 0 6
Sep-20 5,622 5,672 5,564 5,578 5,678 5,628 -50 102,638 82,719
Oct-20 – – – 5,576 5,624 5,576 -48 0 3
Nov-20 – – – 5,570 5,656 5,570 -86 0 6
Dec-20 5,556 5,556 5,556 5,556 5,654 5,556 -98 1 157
Jan-21 5,492 5,532 5,440 5,450 5,550 5,484 -66 1,238 3,038
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 424,781 lots, or 26.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 6,160 6,186 6,160 -26 0 19
May-20 6,162 6,188 6,088 6,096 6,200 6,146 -54 352,664 397,387
Jul-20 6,152 6,152 6,152 6,152 6,212 6,152 -60 1 415
Aug-20 – – – 6,086 6,086 6,086 0 0 2
Sep-20 6,214 6,248 6,172 6,174 6,244 6,216 -28 68,272 169,255
Nov-20 6,284 6,284 6,284 6,284 6,246 6,284 38 1 205
Dec-20 6,292 6,292 6,288 6,288 6,294 6,290 -4 3 6
Jan-21 6,310 6,354 6,280 6,280 6,348 6,324 -24 3,840 7,305
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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