Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. December Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Feb 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Dec 2019—- —-Nov 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 116,920,207 257,809,056 100,094,049 220,707,378
coffee, roasted 8,132,455 17,932,063 7,962,955 17,558,316
instant 3,815,914 8,414,090 3,937,878 8,683,021
cocoa beans 37,786,020 83,318,174 5,553,751 12,246,021
10 lbs or over 1,766,238 3,894,555 2,083,381 4,593,855
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,795,952 21,600,074 8,502,605 18,748,244
not defatted 2,971,305 6,551,728 4,006,519 8,834,374
defatted 3,465,852 7,642,204 4,708,132 10,381,431
unsweetened 8,304,306 18,310,995 8,475,324 18,688,089
sweetened 464,120 1,023,385 54,243 119,606
coating 3,921,661 8,647,263 3,587,618 7,910,698
chocolate 8,859,513 19,535,226 10,276,983 22,660,748
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday but trends are down in the market. The market doubts that China will take that much Cotton from the US even though they have in fact been buying. Traders also turned bearish on the coronavirus that could hamper two-way trade with the US and just about everyone else. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as no one inside the country is shopping for anything new. People in many big cities in China are afraid to go outside due to fears of contracting the virus.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some significant mixed precipitation over the middle of this week and Southeast areas could get big amounts of rain as well. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have drier weather. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 62.89 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 27,599 bales, from 12,709 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 6690 and 6390 March. Support is at 6680, 6620, and 6480 March, with resistance of 6820, 6910, and 6990 March.
DJ U.S. December Cotton Exports-Feb 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 10,646,492 8,359,281 9,779,641 12,588,320
1 to 1 1/8 inch 113,517,286 64,298,190 48,059,348 75,198,002
upland 1 1/8 and over 155,753,550 104,412,209 96,674,221 114,741,456
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 7,478,294 6,115,896 4,778,421 9,948,468
All cotton 287,395,622 183,185,576 159,291,631 212,476,246
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 48,899 38,394 44,918 57,818
1 to 1 1/8 inch 521,381 295,319 220,735 345,382
upland 1 1/8 and over 715,370 479,561 444,021 527,003
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 34,348 28,090 21,947 45,693
All cotton 1,319,997 841,364 731,620 975,895
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and broke through the bottom of a year-long trading range. Trends turned back down and the charts suggest that lower prices will be the feature of the market for quite a while. No real change was noted in the fundamentals of big supplies and bad demand. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 91.00 and 89.00 March. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 96.00, 98.00, and 99.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were slightly higher in New York and lower in London. The chart trends remain down in New York and are now down in London. The fundamentals of big production continue. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.165 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.73 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers through this week and drier weather this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions in the south and some light to moderate showers in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 96.00, 93.00, and 90.00 March, and resistance is at 103.00, 106.00 and 110.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1230 and 1160 March. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower but trends are still trying to turn up in both markets. Current tight supplies, especially of White Sugar, are helping the market to rally. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers through this week and drier conditions this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1560 and 1640 March. Support is at 1470, 1440, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 426.00 and 445.00 March. Support is at 405.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 420.00, 422.00, and 425.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher in consolidation trading. Futures are seeking the direction of the next move after an extended up move and an extended correction down. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are forecast for West Africa with Harmatan winds possibly increasing. Temperatures will be above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 3.178 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2770, 2830, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1840 and 1730 March. Support is at 1910, 1890, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2020, and 2040 March.