About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

“a substantial amount of crops likely remained unharvested at the time of the survey. Farmers were asked to include only crops harvested and currently in storage when reporting stocks of principal field crops. Crops harvested after the collection period for the December survey will be included in later surveys..”
Alerts History
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA TOTAL WHEAT STOCKS 25.0 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, DOWN 0.5 % FROM 25.1 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER – STATSCAN
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA DURUM WHEAT CANADA TOTAL WHEAT STOCKS 4.5 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, DOWN 17.6% FROM 5.5 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA OAT STOCKS 2.7 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, UP 11.0% FROM 2.4 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA BARLEY STOCKS 6.0 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, UP 20.6% FROM 4.9 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA CANOLA STOCKS 14.3 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, DOWN 2.4% FROM 14.6 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER
• 05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM – CANADA PEA STOCKS 2.6 MLN TONNES ON DEC 31, UP 3.2% FROM 2.6 MLN TONNES A YR EARLIER
Canada canola and wheat stocks down year over year – Reuters News
05-Feb-2020 07:30:15 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
OTTAWA, Feb 5 (Reuters) – Stocks of oats, barley and dry peas were up at the end of December 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, according to a farm survey by Statistics Canada released on Wednesday. Stocks of wheat, canola, corn for grain, lentils and soybeans were down year over year.
StatCan noted because of poor weather conditions during harvest, a substantial amount of crop likely remained unharvested. Crops harvested after the December survey collection period will be included in later surveys, the agency said.
The survey of approximately 8,600 Canadian farms was conducted from December 13, 2019 until January 15, 2020.
Total stocks of principal field crops at March 31
Dec 2017 Dec 2018 Dec 2019 Dec 2017-2018 Dec 2018-2019
thousands of tonnes % change
Total wheat 24236 25109 24982 3.6 -0.5
Durum wheat 4781 5478 4516 14.6 -17.6
Wheat ex durum 19454 19631 20467 0.9 4.3
Barley 6033 4943 5959 -18.1 20.6
Canola 13938 14618 14271 4.9 -2.4
Corn for grain 12420 11628 10686 -6.4 -8.1
Dry field peas 2823 2550 2632 -9.7 3.2
Flaxseed 521 410 380 -21.3 -7.3
Lentils 2111 2116 1801 0.2 -14.9
Oats 2883 2406 2671 -16.5 11.0
Rye 335 169 187 -49.6 10.7
Soybeans 4365 4277 3874 -2.0 -9.4
NOTE: Analysts and traders surveyed by Reuters on average estimated stockpiles as of December 31, 2019 at 24.6 mln tonnes of all wheat, 4.2 mln tonnes of durum wheat, 14.4 mln tonnes of canola, 2.7 mln tonnes of oats, and 6.3 mln tonnes of barley. (Reporting by Dale Smith; editing by Kelsey Johnson)((Reuters Ottawa bureau: 1-613-235-6745; kelsey.johnson@tr.com))

DJ U.S. December Grain Imports-Feb 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Dec 2019—- —-Nov 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 449,703 991,595 92,053 202,977
spring wheat 3,002,343 6,620,166 5,673,067 12,509,113
winter wheat 328,063 723,379 264,300 582,782
wheat/meslin 31,755,902 70,021,764 20,238,023 44,624,841
TOTAL WHEAT 35,536,011 78,356,904 26,267,443 57,919,712
barley 8,473,172 18,683,344 5,286,465 11,656,655
oats 335,664 740,139 115,558 254,805
corn 56,686,204 124,993,080 36,476,254 80,430,140
other corn 11,233,903 24,770,756 7,328,554 16,159,462
TOTAL CORN 67,920,107 149,763,836 43,804,808 96,589,602

DJ U.S. Dec Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Feb 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Dec 2019—- —-Nov 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 44,835,704 98,862,727 35,100,236 77,396,020
palm kernel oil 27,198,421 59,972,518 27,305,072 60,207,684
palm oil 159,494,170 351,684,645 152,813,936 336,954,729
soybean 35,418,269 78,097,283 11,016,001 24,290,282
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 16,048,581 35,387,121 11,106,095 24,488,939
rapeseed oil
edible 158,130,030 348,676,716 145,302,165 320,391,274
rapeseed oil,
inedible 15,834 34,914 0 0

DJ U.S. December Grain Exports-Feb 5
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
Barley 3,549,000 3,204,384 3,723,645 5,964,000
Corn /1 2,508,110,000 2,473,759,000 2,303,948,000 4,345,190,000
Sorghum 429,017,000 284,147,000 134,528,000 149,277,000
Oats 2,108,645 2,356,541 1,917,875 2,511,816
Rye 191,000 114,601 414,600 20,000
Wheat /1 2,161,218,136 1,814,104,673 2,150,889,083 2,270,804,711
wheat flour /1 19,393,854 22,539,306 26,716,748 24,620,501
Malt 33,837,887 33,513,454 29,079,611 39,083,069
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
Barley 163,003 147,175 171,024 273,922
Corn /1 98,738,916 97,386,591 90,701,495 171,060,819
Sorghum 16,889,480 11,186,258 5,296,079 5,876,716
Oats 145,272 162,351 132,130 173,048
Rye 7,519 4,512 16,322 787
Wheat /1 79,410,358 66,656,252 79,030,834 83,436,934
wheat flour /1 427,561 496,907 589,004 542,789
Malt 74,599,784 73,884,531 64,109,579 86,163,433
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. December Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Feb 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
soybeans 5,570,376,324 7,005,296,109 5,944,598,146 4,105,844,610
soyoil 83,597,599 112,200,119 114,550,236 77,342,510
crude 63,337,525 93,464,898 101,935,850 67,662,426
refined 26,618 168,085 105,555 216,942
other/1 20,064,091 18,337,287 12,234,566 9,108,195
hydrogenated 169,365 229,849 274,265 354,947
cottonseed oil 2,995,985 6,330,822 3,147,658 2,053,259
crude 436,031 2,090,513 0 217,837
refined 1,175,021 1,261,995 1,262,155 629,377
other/1 1,360,432 2,978,314 1,885,503 1,206,045
hydrogenated 24,501 0 0 0
sunseeds 95,844 57,787 83,950 19,958
sunseed oil 3,547,768 5,709,363 3,979,619 4,059,947
rapeseed 16,936,345 27,302,991 24,235,254 27,511,384
rapeseed oil 10,661,340 6,807,545 9,715,989 8,197,428
crude 6,671,711 2,805,849 5,415,156 4,010,875
refined 3,989,629 4,001,696 4,300,833 4,186,553
linseed meal 150,303 74,674 56,353 151,185
cottonseed meal 7,004,919 10,795,817 15,840,888 8,749,661
soymeal 787,612,454 860,831,849 778,679,879 818,505,061
soymeal/flour 219,553,686 254,959,594 240,199,947 243,343,307
soymeal hulls 9,703,000 3,633,000 14,393,000 20,874,000
lard 2,193,897 2,249,238 1,648,638 1,600,916
edible tallow 11,565,601 10,290,873 12,128,267 8,775,604
inedible tallow 38,124,785 33,967,318 23,269,003 33,720,350
ch white grease 36,421 0 14,248 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Dec 19 Nov 19 Oct 19 Dec 18(*)
soybeans 204,674,192 257,397,928 218,424,349 150,862,416
soyoil 184,301,190 247,358,963 252,540,085 170,511,076
crude 139,635,364 206,054,864 224,730,119 149,170,141
refined 58,683 370,564 232,709 478,275
other/1 44,233,756 40,426,805 26,972,606 20,080,136
hydrogenated 373,386 506,730 604,651 782,524
cottonseed oil 6,605,017 13,957,076 6,939,399 4,526,662
crude 961,284 4,608,793 0 480,248
refined 2,590,478 2,782,223 2,782,576 1,387,539
other/1 2,999,240 6,566,060 4,156,823 2,658,875
hydrogenated 54,015 0 0 0
sunseeds 211,300 127,399 185,078 44,000
sunseed oil 7,821,491 12,586,993 8,773,560 8,950,653
rapeseed 37,338,256 60,192,802 53,429,598 60,652,230
rapeseed oil 23,504,235 15,008,070 21,420,093 18,072,238
crude 14,708,608 6,185,839 11,938,377 8,842,467
refined 8,795,628 8,822,231 9,481,715 9,229,771
linseed meal 166 82 62 167
cottonseed meal 7,722 11,900 17,461 9,645
soymeal 868,185 948,895 858,339 902,238
soymeal flour/me 242,014 281,042 264,772 268,237
soymeal hulls 10,696 4,005 15,865 23,009
lard 4,836,716 4,958,722 3,634,625 3,529,416
edible tallow 25,497,790 22,687,495 26,738,256 19,346,898
inedible tallow 84,050,778 74,885,131 51,299,379 74,340,659
ch white grease 80,295 0 31,411 0

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher in the Chicago Winter Wheat markets and lower in Minneapolis. Prices are weaker in recent days in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia, but these prices seem more stable now. Futures are also working off an oversold status on the charts in Chicago. Russia offered lower prices that got traded in the world market. Egypt bought at prices lower than those seen in recent weeks. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer in Russia. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to below normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal in the west and below normal in the east.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 529 and 498 March. Support is at 551, 545, and 539 March, with resistance at 566, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 456 and 432 March. Support is at 464, 459, and 457 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 531, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 540, 541, and 543 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in consolidation trading. Futures appear to be comfortable in a range for now but the trends longer term are still up and US fundamentals suggest higher prices are coming. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1348, 1335, and 1326 March, with resistance at 1374, 1388, and 1400 March.

DJ Thai Rice Production May Fall on Bad Weather: USDA — Market Talk
0129 GMT – Thai rice production in 2019-20 may fall to the second-lowest level in a decade due to adverse weather conditions, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. It is forecasting Thai rice production of 18 million metric tons in the period, compared with 20.3 million metric tons in 2018-19. It adds that as a result, rice exports for the period are expected to have declined to 7.6 million tons in 2019 and will likely decline further in 2020. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.82 9.36 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.52 9.97 0.00
Brokens 9.40 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher and held to the recent trading range. Both markets have been holding despite of all the troubles in China as China has never been a big buyer of Corn in the US. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. Petroleum prices managed to rally a little yesterday as well. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report that showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 370, 368, and 350 March. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 298, 295, and 293 March, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 317 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans and Soybean Oil trading higher and Soybean Meal trading lower. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. China has already asked for more flexible terms due to the virus outbreak. Future demand for US Soybeans will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry but is expected to get rains in the near term. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 861 March. Support is at 869, 866, and 856 March, and resistance is at 887, 889, and 891 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00 March Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 March, and resistance is at 292.00, 295.00, and 296.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2910 and 2760 March. Support is at 3040, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3100, 3130, and 3210 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little higher on short covering from speculators. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 443.00 March, with resistance at 456.00, 461.00, and 463.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2630, 2580, and 2530 April, with resistance at 2700, 2800, and 2860 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow over the middle of the week, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February +47 Mar +165 Mar +100 Mar +50 Mar +12 Mar N/A
March +55 Mar +112 Mar +53 Mar
April +54 May +110 May +45 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 4
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 4 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, February 4.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 422.26 -30.24 March 2020 up 6.55
Track Thunder Bay 461.90 7.00 March 2020 up 2.40
Track Vancouver 474.90 20.00 March 2020 up 2.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 690.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 690.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 632.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 692.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,800.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 65,542 lots, or 2.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,370 3,413 3,370 3,392 3,375 3,405 30 60 1,257
May-20 3,963 4,035 3,962 4,024 3,964 4,007 43 60,565 93,043
Jul-20 4,048 4,048 4,048 4,048 3,993 4,048 55 1 27
Sep-20 3,909 3,971 3,880 3,963 3,893 3,941 48 4,824 16,897
Nov-20 3,849 3,850 3,830 3,830 3,779 3,844 65 4 244
Jan-21 3,733 3,842 3,731 3,824 3,743 3,813 70 88 456
Corn
Turnover: 650,044 lots, or 12.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,920 1,927 1,907 1,921 1,911 1,918 7 34,164 56,561
May-20 1,926 1,948 1,926 1,944 1,923 1,937 14 496,609 620,825
Jul-20 1,947 1,960 1,944 1,957 1,943 1,952 9 11,055 12,091
Sep-20 1,960 1,984 1,959 1,981 1,959 1,974 15 103,768 184,538
Nov-20 1,978 1,996 1,974 1,995 1,973 1,986 13 1,965 1,703
Jan-21 1,985 2,006 1,983 2,003 1,984 1,997 13 2,483 3,131
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,127,400 lots, or 29.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,543 2,621 2,543 2,621 2,525 2,592 67 28,900 57,658
May-20 2,589 2,653 2,588 2,649 2,570 2,628 58 764,551 1,319,991
Jul-20 2,610 2,687 2,610 2,683 2,608 2,664 56 21,933 16,181
Aug-20 2,708 2,725 2,700 2,724 2,666 2,713 47 2,190 377
Sep-20 2,695 2,745 2,681 2,742 2,656 2,723 67 295,186 999,915
Nov-20 2,699 2,772 2,699 2,770 2,696 2,754 58 7,300 1,793
Dec-20 2,770 2,794 2,767 2,794 2,715 2,774 59 20 227
Jan-21 2,734 2,800 2,734 2,799 2,710 2,784 74 7,320 15,140
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,244 lots, or 44.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 5,896 6,188 5,896 -292 0 36
Mar-20 5,982 6,092 5,970 6,018 6,018 6,030 12 119 444
Apr-20 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,886 5,474 -412 1 8
May-20 5,510 5,730 5,510 5,650 5,676 5,640 -36 730,053 351,393
Jun-20 5,552 5,670 5,542 5,558 5,570 5,592 22 20 7
Jul-20 – – – 5,572 5,572 5,572 0 0 302
Aug-20 5,510 5,584 5,424 5,508 5,490 5,480 -10 9 6
Sep-20 5,416 5,532 5,380 5,468 5,446 5,466 20 68,450 60,416
Oct-20 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,402 5,538 136 1 3
Nov-20 5,384 5,498 5,382 5,444 5,358 5,418 60 5 7
Dec-20 5,354 5,466 5,306 5,466 5,310 5,368 58 14 83
Jan-21 5,190 5,402 5,190 5,364 5,314 5,342 28 572 1,507
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 469,248 lots, or 28.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 6,138 6,142 6,052 6,052 6,060 6,126 66 8 20
May-20 6,000 6,116 5,982 6,050 6,060 6,048 -12 371,756 402,222
Jul-20 5,784 6,256 5,784 6,024 6,022 6,000 -22 7 415
Aug-20 – – – 5,972 5,992 5,972 -20 0 2
Sep-20 5,998 6,106 5,966 6,038 6,020 6,044 24 96,557 153,495
Nov-20 – – – 6,016 6,016 6,016 0 0 203
Dec-20 – – – 6,080 6,080 6,080 0 0 0
Jan-21 6,038 6,160 6,036 6,106 6,038 6,110 72 920 1,360
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322