Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and trends are down in the market. The market doubts that China will take that much Cotton from the US despite the news that China was a buyer in the weekly export sales report released last week. Traders also turned bearish on the coronavirus that could hamper two-way trade with the US and just about everyone else. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as no one inside the country is shopping for anything new. People in many big cities in China are afraid to go outside due to fears of contracting the virus.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see some mixed precipitation over the middle of this week and Southeast areas could get big amounts of rain. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mixed precipitation today and tomorrow and then drier weather again. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 62.38 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 12,709 ba1es, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6620, 6480, and 6410 March, with resistance of 6800, 6910, and 6990 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and is now pressing against the lower end of the range. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower in New York and in London. The chart trends remain down in New York as that market took out 100.00 and closed in the 90’s. Trends in London are turning down. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.175 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 97.77 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers through this week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 96.00, 93.00, and 90.00 March, and resistance is at 103.00, 106.00 and 110.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1230 and 1160 March. Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1240 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 March.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and trends are trying to turn up again in both markets. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers through this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1560 and 1640 March. Support is at 1470, 1440, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 426.00 and 445.00 March. Support is at 405.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 419.00, 422.00, and 425.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed lower. Funds and other speculators were more two-sided in trading. Producers were sellers in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern and eastern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are sharply higher today at 3.128 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2710, 2670, and 2650 March, with resistance at 760, 2830, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1890, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2020, and 2040 March.