About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Feb 3
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 30, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/30/2020 01/23/2020 01/31/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,796 416 196 19,458 6,730
CORN 562,380 679,994 912,191 10,724,374 22,496,268
FLAXSEED 100 0 0 496 218
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 400 200 200 2,666 1,993
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 6,516 142,217 24,157 1,137,491 596,384
SOYBEANS 1,355,627 1,058,772 1,092,842 26,594,745 21,577,745
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 413,984 225,825 443,265 16,639,729 14,827,601
Total 2,340,803 2,107,424 2,472,851 55,118,959 59,506,939
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher at the close after trading lower for much of the session. Only Minneapolis closed slightly lower as the Chicago markets finished slightly higher. Trends might have turned down on the daily and weekly charts in all three markets just the same. Price charts look most negative in Minneapolis right now. Prices were weaker in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia in particular offered lower prices that got traded in the world market. Egypt bought at prices lower than those seen in recent weeks. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation today and tomorrow and then dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation early this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 529 and 498 March. Support is at 545, 539, and 530 March, with resistance at 560, 566, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 456 and 432 March. Support is at 459, 457, and 451 March, with resistance at 474, 477, and 481 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 531, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 540, 543, and 549 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in consolidation trading. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1348, 1335, and 1326 March, with resistance at 1374, 1388, and 1400 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved a little lower while Oats closed lower. The Coronavirus has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand is in trouble with weaker petroleum prices. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. There are many quality concerns about Corn loaded from PNW ports as this Corn comes from the northern and northwestern Midwest and the quality of Corn produced in these areas was called poor. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report that showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 370, 368, and 350 March. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 289 and 286 March. Support is at 298, 295, and 293 March, and resistance is at 307, 310, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed, with Soybeans and Soybean Oil trading higher and Soybean Meal trading lower. New buying from China is expected with a Phase One deal between the US and China now complete. However, news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. China has already asked for more flexible terms due to the virus outbreak. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and more dryness is expected, so conditions and production potential are down there. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 861 March. Support is at 869, 866, and 856 March, and resistance is at 883, 889, and 891 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 285.00 March Support is at 286.00, 283.00, and 280.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2910 and 2760 March. Support is at 2980, 2930, and 2870 March, with resistance at 3060, 3130, and 3210 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. A weaker Canadian Dollar was also supportive. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little higher on short covering from speculators. Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 443.00 March, with resistance at 456.00, 461.00, and 463.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2530, and 2480 April, with resistance at 2700, 2800, and 2860 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow over the middle of the week, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +48 Mar +164 Mar +112 Mar +53 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +55 Mar +112 Mar +52 Mar
March +55 Mar +110 Mar +45 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 3
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Feb. 3 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, February 3.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 415.17 -34.79 March 2020 dn 5.99
Track Thunder Bay 459.50 7.00 March 2020 up 2.00
Track Vancouver 472.50 20.00 March 2020 up 2.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 690.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 690.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 632.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 620.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 692.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,800.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 65,542 lots, or 2.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,370 3,413 3,370 3,392 3,375 3,405 30 60 1,257
May-20 3,963 4,035 3,962 4,024 3,964 4,007 43 60,565 93,043
Jul-20 4,048 4,048 4,048 4,048 3,993 4,048 55 1 27
Sep-20 3,909 3,971 3,880 3,963 3,893 3,941 48 4,824 16,897
Nov-20 3,849 3,850 3,830 3,830 3,779 3,844 65 4 244
Jan-21 3,733 3,842 3,731 3,824 3,743 3,813 70 88 456
Corn
Turnover: 650,044 lots, or 12.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,920 1,927 1,907 1,921 1,911 1,918 7 34,164 56,561
May-20 1,926 1,948 1,926 1,944 1,923 1,937 14 496,609 620,825
Jul-20 1,947 1,960 1,944 1,957 1,943 1,952 9 11,055 12,091
Sep-20 1,960 1,984 1,959 1,981 1,959 1,974 15 103,768 184,538
Nov-20 1,978 1,996 1,974 1,995 1,973 1,986 13 1,965 1,703
Jan-21 1,985 2,006 1,983 2,003 1,984 1,997 13 2,483 3,131
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,127,400 lots, or 29.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,543 2,621 2,543 2,621 2,525 2,592 67 28,900 57,658
May-20 2,589 2,653 2,588 2,649 2,570 2,628 58 764,551 1,319,991
Jul-20 2,610 2,687 2,610 2,683 2,608 2,664 56 21,933 16,181
Aug-20 2,708 2,725 2,700 2,724 2,666 2,713 47 2,190 377
Sep-20 2,695 2,745 2,681 2,742 2,656 2,723 67 295,186 999,915
Nov-20 2,699 2,772 2,699 2,770 2,696 2,754 58 7,300 1,793
Dec-20 2,770 2,794 2,767 2,794 2,715 2,774 59 20 227
Jan-21 2,734 2,800 2,734 2,799 2,710 2,784 74 7,320 15,140
Palm Oil
Turnover: 799,244 lots, or 44.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 – – – 5,896 6,188 5,896 -292 0 36
Mar-20 5,982 6,092 5,970 6,018 6,018 6,030 12 119 444
Apr-20 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,886 5,474 -412 1 8
May-20 5,510 5,730 5,510 5,650 5,676 5,640 -36 730,053 351,393
Jun-20 5,552 5,670 5,542 5,558 5,570 5,592 22 20 7
Jul-20 – – – 5,572 5,572 5,572 0 0 302
Aug-20 5,510 5,584 5,424 5,508 5,490 5,480 -10 9 6
Sep-20 5,416 5,532 5,380 5,468 5,446 5,466 20 68,450 60,416
Oct-20 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,538 5,402 5,538 136 1 3
Nov-20 5,384 5,498 5,382 5,444 5,358 5,418 60 5 7
Dec-20 5,354 5,466 5,306 5,466 5,310 5,368 58 14 83
Jan-21 5,190 5,402 5,190 5,364 5,314 5,342 28 572 1,507
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 469,248 lots, or 28.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 6,138 6,142 6,052 6,052 6,060 6,126 66 8 20
May-20 6,000 6,116 5,982 6,050 6,060 6,048 -12 371,756 402,222
Jul-20 5,784 6,256 5,784 6,024 6,022 6,000 -22 7 415
Aug-20 – – – 5,972 5,992 5,972 -20 0 2
Sep-20 5,998 6,106 5,966 6,038 6,020 6,044 24 96,557 153,495
Nov-20 – – – 6,016 6,016 6,016 0 0 203
Dec-20 – – – 6,080 6,080 6,080 0 0 0
Jan-21 6,038 6,160 6,036 6,106 6,038 6,110 72 920 1,360
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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