About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower for the week with Chicago SRW and Chicago HRW taking the brunt of the down move and Minneapolis Spring markets also lower. Trends might have turned down on the weekly charts in all three markets. Price charts look most negative in Minneapolis right now. Prices were weaker in the face of lower prices in Europe and Russia. Russia in particular offered lower prices that got traded in the world market. Egypt bought at prices lower than those seen in recent weeks. The situation there is changing as Spring comes closer. Spring means that the next Winter crop will break dormancy and start to grow. It is expected to be a good crop after good growing conditions were seen over the Winter. That means the producers will be much more interested in selling.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation today and tomorrow and then dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation early this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 529 and 498 March. Support is at 551, 545, and 539 March, with resistance at 566, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 463, 457, and 451 March, with resistance at 474, 477, and 481 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 533, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 540, 543, and 549 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 630,775
: Positions :
: 114,765 98,583 240,449 68,136 174,745 172,328 62,415 595,677 576,192: 35,098 54,583
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -14,697) :
: 2,997 4,024 -7,536 -11,076 -3,229 910 -7,162 -14,706 -13,903: 9 -794
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.2 15.6 38.1 10.8 27.7 27.3 9.9 94.4 91.3: 5.6 8.7
: Total Traders: 418 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 118 133 72 125 53 25 314 330:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 329,663
: Positions :
: 49,320 58,224 102,624 63,692 129,742 85,314 18,607 300,950 309,197: 28,713 20,466
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 9,214) :
: 2,340 4,782 6,075 698 -2,701 -69 1,339 9,045 9,495: 169 -281
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 17.7 31.1 19.3 39.4 25.9 5.6 91.3 93.8: 8.7 6.2
: Total Traders: 299 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 55 89 92 93 36 15 251 220:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 68,718 :
: Positions :
: 35,333 40,340 2,255 0 24 4,313 7,845 4,281 6,315 1,570 3,038 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 471 1,289 346 0 -13 -57 -173 173 894 718 630 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.4 58.7 3.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 11.4 6.2 9.2 2.3 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 93 :
: 45 40 4 0 . 8 7 7 7 6 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 21,649 :
: Positions :
: 7,228 18,403 3,225 110 2,018 6,356 0 286 1,401 0 578 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 1,125 1,516 138 110 -175 82 0 66 144 0 -153 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.4 85.0 14.9 0.5 9.3 29.4 0.0 1.3 6.5 0.0 2.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 11 21 . . . 5 0 . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher for the week and held the previous week’s lows while making new highs for the move. The tone remains firm but some speculators and producers have been selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish market as futures have traded to levels not seen since 2014 on the weekly continuation charts. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and through the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the end of the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1348, 1335, and 1326 March, with resistance at 1374, 1388, and 1400 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 13,757 :
: Positions :
: 4,441 8,782 108 0 0 4,965 1,028 10 576 1,116 1,167 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 810 764 0 0 0 107 19 -6 97 50 388 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 32.3 63.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 36.1 7.5 0.1 4.2 8.1 8.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 16 17 . 0 0 17 . . 8 8 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn moved a little lower last week while Oats managed to closed fractionally higher. Corn made a new move above previous resistance at 3.92 March the previous week before selling off last week. Oats were lower for most of the week and closed near the weekly lows. The main driver was the Coronavirus that has threatened world trade in all agricultural goods. Export demand has been disappointing, but it was great last week, and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand remains an open question despite the big sales last week and the trade deals consummated in the last couple of weeks with Canada, Mexico, and China. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report that showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 303, 299, and 295 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 317 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,823,044
: Positions :
: 151,474 231,388 440,434 488,480 775,898 447,212 165,319 1,527,600 1,613,041: 295,444 210,003
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: -28,572) :
: 1,922 -32,217 -8,678 -8,679 20,449 -3,092 -11,207 -18,527 -31,653: -10,045 3,081
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 12.7 24.2 26.8 42.6 24.5 9.1 83.8 88.5: 16.2 11.5
: Total Traders: 800 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 130 181 373 365 54 32 665 627:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,673 :
: Positions :
: 1,350 4,458 132 0 0 1,189 95 0 1,513 24 111 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 304 483 0 0 0 292 -15 0 75 24 111 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.8 78.6 2.3 0.0 0.0 21.0 1.7 0.0 26.7 0.4 2.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31 :
: 7 13 . 0 0 7 . 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Boost for South Africa GM Corn After Zimbabwe Lifts Import Ban – Market Talk — Market Talk
0837 GMT – Zimbabwe’s decision to lift a ban on genetically modified corn imports following a poor harvest is expected to benefit growers in South Africa, says Wandile Sihlobo chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber. South Africa has about 1.2 million tons of corn for export markets but produces roughly 80% of its grain from genetically modified seeds. Mr. Sihlobo notes that the ban had for years constrained South Africa’s capacity to supply the Zimbabwean corn market. “We believe that the lifting of the GM import ban will accelerate corn import activity into Zimbabwe in the coming months,” he says. Zimbabwe’s corn production halved last season to 800,000 tons, way below the consumption of up to 2 million tons due to drought. (Nicholas.Bariyo@wsj.com;@Nicholabariyo)

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower. The price action was especially weak in Soybeans and Soybean Oil and trends are down but the markets are over extended at this time. Soybean Meal trends turned down with additional room to drop further. The news that the US and China had reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish but already part of the market. New buying from China is expected. However, news that the Coronavirus had broken out in China and rapidly spread around the globe hurt demand ideas immediately as China might not buy or will buy a lot less than forecast. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and more dryness is expected, so conditions and production potential are down there. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 861 March. Support is at 866, 856, and 842 March, and resistance is at 883, 889, and 891 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 290.00 and 285.00 March Support is at 289.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2910 and 2760 March. Support is at 2980, 2930, and 2870 March, with resistance at 3060, 3130, and 3210 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 955,012
: Positions :
: 55,948 130,195 266,859 348,369 427,547 218,689 55,451 889,866 880,053: 65,146 74,959
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 40,872) :
: -645 31,069 14,369 31,334 -6,374 -1,732 4,720 43,327 43,784: -2,455 -2,912
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.9 13.6 27.9 36.5 44.8 22.9 5.8 93.2 92.2: 6.8 7.8
: Total Traders: 603 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 149 121 199 201 215 53 28 499 488:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 592,545
: Positions :
: 96,383 32,319 153,921 145,676 336,978 161,856 40,966 557,837 564,185: 34,709 28,361
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,036) :
: -6,666 -1,447 1,157 11,994 -482 -575 1,587 5,911 815: -2,874 2,221
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 5.5 26.0 24.6 56.9 27.3 6.9 94.1 95.2: 5.9 4.8
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 71 118 88 82 44 23 291 245:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 512,178
: Positions :
: 49,189 87,430 104,304 171,685 250,060 135,009 36,034 460,187 477,828: 51,992 34,351
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 11,904) :
: -2,353 -1,235 4,951 6,289 3,666 -71 2,358 8,817 9,741: 3,087 2,164
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 17.1 20.4 33.5 48.8 26.4 7.0 89.8 93.3: 10.2 6.7
: Total Traders: 320 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 84 85 108 89 38 19 263 231:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. The fallout from the coronavirus affected this market as well as those in the US. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was a little higher on short covering from speculators Production is lower so the demand loss will not be felt as much..
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.220 million tons in January, from 1.325 million in December. AmSpec said that exports were 1.231 million tons, from 1.349 million in December.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 448.00, 445.00, and 443.00 March, with resistance at 456.00, 461.00, and 463.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2530, and 2480 April, with resistance at 2700, 2800, and 2860 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 197,230 :
: Positions :
: 160,378 119,858 4,969 1,836 724 3,067 41,049 5,483 7,444 12,262 14,152 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 10,586 -5,776 -135 201 155 -3,265 14,060 -2,172 452 -252 -925 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.3 60.8 2.5 0.9 0.4 1.6 20.8 2.8 3.8 6.2 7.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 214 :
: 37 57 4 4 . 8 50 12 33 46 23 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow over the middle of the week, mostly south of Chicago. Temperatures should average near normal tomorrow, then trend to near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +53 Mar +170 Mar +112 Mar +53 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +56 Mar +112 Mar +52 Mar
March +55 Mar +110 Mar +45 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 31
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 426.46 -35.24 Mar 2020 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 463.40 7.00 Mar 2020 dn 5.30
Basis: Vancouver 476.40 20.00 Mar 2020 dn 5.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 627.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 615.00 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 687.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 687.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 660.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 617.50 — Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 680.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,730.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 201.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1125)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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