About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and trends are down in the market. A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic. The Coronavirus has the chance to hurt trade in Cotton between the two countries. Chinese buyers might need less Cotton now as no one inside the country is shopping for anything new. People in many big cities in China are afraid to go outside due to fears of contracting the virus.
Overnight News: The Delta should see some mixed precipitation over the middle of this week and the Southeast should get precipitation buy the end of next week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions today, but mixed precipitation tomorrow and then drier weather again. Temperatures will trend to near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.04 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 bales, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6710, 6620, and 6480 March, with resistance of 6910, 6990, and 7090 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 315,318
: Positions :
: 41,881 25,389 90,358 68,472 171,861 99,295 17,772 300,007 305,380: 15,311 9,938
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 11,809) :
: 2,961 1,768 2,246 6,279 6,490 1,937 986 13,423 11,491: -1,614 318
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 8.1 28.7 21.7 54.5 31.5 5.6 95.1 96.8: 4.9 3.2
: Total Traders: 317 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 76 106 54 65 52 25 266 231:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher for the week in narrow range trading. Futures act as if it could work higher despite bearish fundamentals. Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on the weekly charts. The range has held together for about a year now. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 24,236 :
: Positions :
: 10,651 7,612 1,329 0 68 1,039 9,196 515 1,996 1,085 2,908 :
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 :
: 511 118 -26 0 0 -8 546 54 17 -14 -54 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 43.9 31.4 5.5 0.0 0.3 4.3 37.9 2.1 8.2 4.5 12.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 97 :
: 22 12 6 0 . 4 29 6 21 6 13 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week in New York and higher in London. The weekly charts in New York suggest that the current price weakness is about to run out of steam, and London could find a bottom at current prices. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.176 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 101.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers through this week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 100.00 March. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 93.00 March, and resistance is at 106.00, 110.00 and 114.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1230 and 1160 March. Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1240 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 371,430
: Positions :
: 33,214 26,685 118,970 126,932 195,824 79,611 23,214 358,727 364,692: 12,703 6,738
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 16,655) :
: -1,563 5,616 8,090 12,415 2,213 -1,501 1,298 17,441 17,218: -786 -563
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 7.2 32.0 34.2 52.7 21.4 6.2 96.6 98.2: 3.4 1.8
: Total Traders: 438 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 96 153 125 118 51 25 385 331:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher after testing support areas. It was a positive week and London posted an outside week up which has bullish connotations. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. Farmers have been selling to mills but the harvest is now almost over so the supplies will start to tail off. Brazil mills continue to favor ethanol in the production mix, but current higher prices for Sugar make it economic to open more processing to Sugar instead of ethanol at this time.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers through this week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1410, and 1380 March, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 405.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 416.00, 419.00, and 422.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,419,532
: Positions :
: 195,406 109,813 325,678 462,052 843,199 340,611 85,014 1,323,747 1,363,704: 95,785 55,828
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 63,298) :
: 8,852 -5,748 7,931 40,072 58,152 9,701 5,586 66,556 65,921: -3,258 -2,622
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 7.7 22.9 32.5 59.4 24.0 6.0 93.3 96.1: 6.7 3.9
: Total Traders: 298 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 51 103 91 84 45 26 277 223:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher after a see saw week that saw prices trade on both sides of unchanged. Maybe the market is about done with the current rally. Funds and other speculators were more two-sided in trading. Producers were sellers in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern and eastern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 3.003 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2920 and 3100 March. Support is at 2740, 2670, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2890 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1890 March, with resistance at 2020, 2040, and 2070 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 28, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 393,290
: Positions :
: 71,283 39,806 128,248 101,679 185,565 75,534 27,068 376,744 380,688: 16,546 12,602
: Changes from: January 21, 2020 (Change in open interest: 10,578) :
: 9,218 559 2,960 1,169 3,930 -2,652 2,083 10,695 9,532: -117 1,047
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.1 10.1 32.6 25.9 47.2 19.2 6.9 95.8 96.8: 4.2 3.2
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 52 100 42 45 43 22 238 181:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322