Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday despite the strongest weekly export sales report of the marketing year. Traders were more worried about the coronavirus and its potential to hurt Chinese demand and the world economy. A catalyst for the recent rally has been the trade deal between the US and China, which is where the virus got started. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather this weekend and some mixed precipitation nest week and the Southeast should get precipitation today and again by the middle of next week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 65.60 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 bales, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6850, 6800, and 6710 March, with resistance of 6990, 7090, and 7140 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower yesterday. The market remains in a range for the short-term and the long-term. The longer term trading range has held together for about a year now. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions but some rain is possible today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and mixed to lower in London. The Brazilian crop is developing well with frequent rains coming to major growing areas and a bumper crop is now forecast. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers are not selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago. The market anticipates bigger offers but it will take some type of rally to make that happen in the short-term. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.179 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 100.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers through this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 100.00 March. Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 93.00 March, and resistance is at 106.00, 110.00 and 114.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1230 and 1160 March. Support is at 1290, 1260, and 1240 March, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and the predominant trend is still up or sideways to up. The leader is still the White Sugar market in London. There is a shortage of White Sugar in the cash market right now. Brazil could produce more Sugar and less Ethanol due to the current weakness in Crude Oil and Ethanol prices, but the mills need cash and have supported the move by Brazil to produce more Ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers into next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1380, and 1340 March, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1550 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 426.00 and 445.00 March. Support is at 405.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, and resistance is at 416.00, 419.00, and 422.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and the New York market could have started a new leg higher after completing a bull flag. The weather remains unfavorable in West Africa. The hot and dry conditions are bringing ideas of smaller crops to the market. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is generally good, although it has turned hot and dry there. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern and eastern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 3.003 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2920 and 3100 March. Support is at 2740, 2670, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2830, 2860, and 2890 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1950, and 1920 March, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2100 March.