About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday but recovered from the lowest part of the day to close with only minor losses. Futures generally held as world market conditions remain firm, but a top has formed in Chicago and trends have started to turn down in Minneapolis. The markets have run a long way on news of world production problems and firm world prices. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. The Ruble has also been firmer against the US Dollar and this has also caused Russian prices to form in the world market. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. US farmers planted less Wheat than any time in the last 100 years so no real change in the world scenario of less supply is indicated.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation today and then dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 529 and 498 March. Support is at 551, 545, and 539 March, with resistance at 566, 576, and 579 March. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 463, 457, and 451 March, with resistance at 477, 481, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 522 and 516 March. Support is at 533, 526, and 520 March, and resistance is at 540, 543, and 549 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower in response to a poor weekly export sales report. Export sales were down significantly from the previous week. In addition, the trade was worried about how the corona virus could expand and hurt Asian demand, but the US sell into the west and not into the east. Stocks in the west are tight and stocks are called tight in the US. The daily charts have turned mixed but the weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1348, 1335, and 1326 March, with resistance at 1374, 1388, and 1400 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower in part in response to the coronavirus that could affect world demand and world economics. Ideas of lost demand hurt the market. Ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand was strong in the USDA reports released on Friday, but the trading world wants to see much more of these kinds of weekly sales before getting too excited. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 134,000 tons of optional origin Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 371 March, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 303, 299, and 295 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 317 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower once again on ideas of demand losses in part due to big production potential in Brazil and in part due to the effects of the corona virus now spreading through China and other countries. In fact, five cases have now been confirmed in the US, mostly from travelers coming back for Wuhan in China. WHO yesterday said that the spread of the virus was an international emergency. Soybeans have left a well-defined top with and also has indicated a second group of targets after some sideways trade this week. The news that the US and China had reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish but already part of the market. New buying from China is expected but US prices will need to be competitive with those from South America. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil as the harvest of a huge crop is underway and as the US Dollar is showing signs of working much higher. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and more dryness is expected, so conditions and production potential are down there. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 876 and 861 March. Support is at 866, 856, and 842 March, and resistance is at 891, 900, and 903 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 290.00 and 285.00 March Support is at 289.00, 286.00, and 283.00 March, and resistance is at 295.00, 296.00, and 299.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3060, 2980, and 2930 March, with resistance at 3130, 3210, and 3260 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. The fallout from the coronavirus affected this market as well as those in the US. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was lower on demand ideas being lower due to the virus.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.220 million tons in January, from 1.325 million in December. AmSpec said that exports were 1.231 million tons, from 1.349 million in December.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 456.00, 453.00, and 451.00 March, with resistance at 461.00, 463.00, and 466.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2580, 2530, and 2480 April, with resistance at 2700, 2800, and 2860 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow off and on all week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +50 Mar +166 Mar +112 Mar +51 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +50 Mar +100 Mar +53 Mar
March +55 Mar +105 Mar +48 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 31
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 426.46 -35.24 Mar 2020 dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay 463.40 7.00 Mar 2020 dn 5.30
Basis: Vancouver 476.40 20.00 Mar 2020 dn 5.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 687.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 687.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 657.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 627.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 690.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 690.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 630.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 690.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,700.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 200.00 -08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0920)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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