About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 30
For the week ended Jan 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 646.3 1.0 20927.2 17908.8 5223.6 226.9
hrw 291.8 0.0 7726.0 5578.8 1824.5 80.9
srw 14.7 1.0 2144.5 2277.1 409.4 5.2
hrs 213.3 0.0 6017.5 5504.2 1589.9 59.0
white 126.5 0.0 4225.0 4128.8 1209.5 20.9
durum 0.0 0.0 814.2 419.9 190.4 61.0
corn 1234.7 143.6 21542.8 32287.4 11034.5 1168.2
soybeans 469.7 2.0 31673.1 30369.1 6215.9 306.3
soymeal 438.8 0.0 7068.7 6909.7 3623.4 87.3
soyoil 29.4 0.0 549.3 405.9 224.6 0.5
upland cotton 347.1 50.2 12514.3 10878.8 7466.0 1080.8
pima cotton 15.8 0.0 424.0 467.2 224.4 35.3
sorghum -0.3 0.0 1140.2 476.6 360.8 0.0
barley -11.0 9.0 48.7 58.3 17.9 9.0
rice 32.7 0.0 2325.8 1907.5 717.6 0.0

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday. Futures generally held as world market conditions remain firm, but futures are starting to look like a top could be forming. The markets have run a long way on news of world production problems and firm world prices. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. The Ruble has also been firmer against the US Dollar and this has also caused Russian prices to form in the world market. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. US farmers planted less Wheat than any time in the last 100 years so no real change in the world scenario of less supply is indicated.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation today and then dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 564, 560, and 557 March, with resistance at 576, 583, and 587 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 481, 477, and 467 March, with resistance at 491, 500, and 504 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 537, 522, and 516 March. Support is at 540, 539, and 533 March, and resistance is at 549, 556, and 560 March.

General Comments: Rice was higher on tight domestic supplies and good export demand for US Rice. The trade was worried about how the corona virus could expand and hurt Asian demand, but the US sell into the west and not into the east. Stocks in the west are tight and stocks are called tight in the US. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1335, 1326, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1370, 1380, and 1392 March.

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower. Ideas of lost demand hurt the market. Ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand was strong in the USDA reports released on Friday, but the trading world wants to see much more of these kinds of weekly sales before getting too excited. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 370, 368, and 350 March. Support is at 377, 373, and 371 March, and resistance is at 394, 396, and 400 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 305, 303, and 299 March, and resistance is at 312, 315, and 317 March.

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower once again on ideas of demand losses in part due to big production potential in Brazil and in part due to the effects of the corona virus now spreading through China and other countries. In fact, five cases have now been confirmed in the US, mostly from travelers coming back for Wuhan in China. Soybeans have left a well-defined top with second swing objectives of 883 basis the March futures contract. The news that the US and China had reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish but already part of the market. New buying from China is expected but US prices will need to be competitive with those from South America. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in Brazil as the harvest of a huge crop is underway and as the US Dollar is showing signs of working much higher. Brazil is harvesting now and yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and more dryness is expected, so conditions and production potential are down there. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 884 March. Support is at 888, 883, and 872 March, and resistance is at 903, 911, and 915 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 291.00 March Support is at 296.00, 293.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 301.00, 304.00, and 307.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3110, 3070, and 3040 March, with resistance at 3200, 3260, and 3300 March.

General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. The fallout from the coronavirus affected this market as well as those in the US. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was lower in consolidation trading before the Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 456.00, 453.00, and 451.00 March, with resistance at 468.00, 473.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2530, 2480, and 2360 April, with resistance at 2650, 267600, and 2760 April.

DJ Indonesia Palm Oil Exports Expected to Remain Sluggish — Market Talk
0201 GMT – Indonesian palm oil exports are expected to remain sluggish over the coming months as prices continue to climb, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. The USDA notes Indonesia’s palm oil exports for October and November were down 6% on year, and adds that the nationwide implementation of biodiesel containing 30% palm-based fuel in January has been a major factor driving palm oil prices and domestic consumption higher. The benchmark contract for April delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange on Wednesday rose MYR153 to MYR2,728 a metric ton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow off and on all week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +50 Mar +166 Mar +110 Mar +51 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +49 Mar +112 Mar +52 Mar
March +56 Mar +112 Mar +52 Mar

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 29
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
*Par Region 426.56 -35.24 Mar 2020 up 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 468.70 7.00 Mar 2020 dn 0.10
Basis: Vancouver 481.70 20.00 Mar 2020 dn 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 697.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 697.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 632.50 -25.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 700.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 635.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 685.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,720.00 -130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 208.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322