Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday after holding well in the face of general selling pressure seen in Ag markets on Monday. It was another remarkable close given that all anyone was talking about was the coronavirus and how much it could affect demand for a whole host of commodities. It also was a solid close due to the potential for reduced demand from China. A catalyst for the recent rally has been the trade deal between the US and China, which is where the virus got started. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather except for some mixed precipitation today and the Southeast should get precipitation today and again about Friday. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. The USDA average price is now 65.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 bales, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March, with resistance of 7140, 7170, and 7190 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday and remains in the recent trading range. The longer term trading range has held together for about a year now. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions but some rain is possible late today and late on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers through this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 100.00 March. Support is at04.00, 101.00, and 98.00 March, and resistance is at 110.00, 111.00 and 114.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1270 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed higher and climbed back into the middle of the recent trading range. There is a shortage of White Sugar in the cash market right now to support the bulls and to negate the start of a down trend from Monday. Brazil could produce more Sugar and less Ethanol due to the current weakness in Crude Oil and Ethanol prices, but the mills need cash and have supported the move by Brazil to produce more Ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers through this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 399.00, 393.00, and 387l.00 March, and resistance is at 412.00, 415.00, and 418.00 March.
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower as the US Dollar held firm. The weather remains unfavorable in West Africa. The hot and dry conditions are bringing ideas of smaller crops to the market. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is generally good, although it has turned hot and dry there. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern and eastern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.998 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2650, and 2600 March, with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900 March. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.