About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and trends could be turning down in the market. A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed. Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price on the daily charts for the last month as the harvest has been wrapping up amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over and certified stocks are now down.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather except for some mixed precipitation later tomorrow. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions or light precipitation. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.94 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 bales, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March, with resistance of 7000, 7140, and 7170 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 303,509
: Positions :
: 38,921 23,621 88,112 62,192 165,371 97,359 16,786 286,584 293,889: 16,926 9,620
: Changes from: January 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 3,952) :
: -76 2,643 2,598 3,679 -493 -162 -89 6,038 4,659: -2,086 -707
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 7.8 29.0 20.5 54.5 32.1 5.5 94.4 96.8: 5.6 3.2
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 73 100 51 63 52 24 259 224:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher for the week and the situation remains bearish. Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on the weekly charts. The range has held together for about a year now. There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions after some heavy rain today. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 23,758 :
: Positions :
: 10,140 7,493 1,355 0 68 1,047 8,650 461 1,979 1,100 2,962 :
: Changes from: January 14, 2020 :
: 123 237 55 0 0 33 112 35 67 1 -22 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.7 31.5 5.7 0.0 0.3 4.4 36.4 1.9 8.3 4.6 12.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 94 :
: 22 12 6 0 . 4 27 4 19 8 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week in New York and higher in London. The weekly charts in New York suggest that further price weakness is possible, but London could find a bottom at current prices. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well. Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.145 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 104.58 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier weather this weekend with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 105.00 and 100.00 March. Support is at 110.00, 106.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 116.00, 120.00 and 123.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1410 and 1450 March. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 354,775
: Positions :
: 34,777 21,068 110,880 114,517 193,611 81,112 21,916 341,286 347,475: 13,489 7,300
: Changes from: January 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: -6,990) :
: -2,840 159 -4,731 1,009 -4,554 -384 2,293 -6,946 -6,833: -44 -158
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 5.9 31.3 32.3 54.6 22.9 6.2 96.2 97.9: 3.8 2.1
: Total Traders: 431 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 87 150 125 121 51 26 380 328:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
132,738 80,168 59,688 12,209 14,600 1,510
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.4% 45.0% 9.2% 11.0% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 58 41 11 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,491 31,750 9,186 5,154 1,222 10,708
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 23.9% 6.9% 3.9% 0.9% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 32 22 15 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,311 4,074
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little lower while London closed higher. The US Dollar has turned firmer and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1510 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 398.00, 394.00, and 387.00 March, and resistance is at 403.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,356,234
: Positions :
: 186,553 115,562 317,748 421,981 785,046 330,910 79,428 1,257,191 1,297,784: 99,043 58,450
: Changes from: January 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 32,174) :
: 17,575 -17,431 1,322 -1,702 40,644 14,127 2,160 31,321 26,695: 853 5,479
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8 8.5 23.4 31.1 57.9 24.4 5.9 92.7 95.7: 7.3 4.3
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 44 102 86 78 44 25 272 212:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
115,299 35,989 86,153 12,893 1,949 5,519
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 31.2% 74.7% 11.2% 1.7% 4.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 41 49 10 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,134 1,734 8,433 3,708 2,491 6,738
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
31.3% 1.5% 7.3% 3.2% 2.2% 5.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
43 3 15 7 10 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,884 2,282
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 2.0%

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Cane Crush Drops as Most Mills Close Between Harvests
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of January compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 128,000 metric tons of cane in the period, a decline of 77.1% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 4,000 tons of sugar, down 66.9%, and made 96 million liters of ethanol, an increase of 32.8%.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane. Most mills in the region have closed in the period between cane harvests. Activity should start to increase again toward the end of March and the beginning of April.
The production mix for the first half of January month was 24.7% sugar to 75.3% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 23.05% sugar and 76.95% ethanol.
In the season from April 1 through Jan. 16, mills in the region crushed 578.7 million tons of cane, up 2.8% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 0.5% to 26.5 million tons, and ethanol output rose 6.6% to 32.2 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Jan. 16 was 34.5% sugar to 65.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 35.5% sugar and 64.5% ethanol.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower after making new highs for the move. Maybe the market is about done with the current rally. Funds and other speculators were more two-sided in trading. Producers were sellers in both markets. Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is good. The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.037 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2680, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900 March. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 382,712
: Positions :
: 62,065 39,247 125,289 100,509 181,635 78,186 24,985 366,049 371,156: 16,663 11,556
: Changes from: January 14, 2020 (Change in open interest: 48,047) :
: 13,811 3,743 20,666 6,053 20,191 5,986 2,369 46,516 46,969: 1,531 1,078
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 10.3 32.7 26.3 47.5 20.4 6.5 95.6 97.0: 4.4 3.0
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 102 52 96 42 47 43 24 234 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
403,029 187,547 274,929 30,537 15,705 30,425
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.5% 68.2% 7.6% 3.9% 7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
161 52 49 13 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
63,719 348 31,336 6,888 494 48,230
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 0.1% 7.8% 1.7% 0.1% 12.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 5 20 19 8 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,347 1,562
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322