Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
of estimates of estimates
On-feed January 1 102.2 101.6- 102.5
Placed in December 103.2 100.5- 105.3
Marketed in December 105.2 103.9- 105.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan. 1 in December in December
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 103.5 105.8
Allendale Inc. 102.5 104.1 103.9
HedgersEdge 102.4 104.4 105.7
Linn Group 102.2 105.3 104.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.6 101.8 105.4
NFC Markets 101.8 100.5 104.8
Texas A&M Extension 102.0 102.0 105.7
U.S. Commodities 102.3 103.5 105.0
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jan 24
For the week ended Jan 16, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 696.0 46.0 20280.9 17908.8 4795.6 225.9
hrw 284.3 20.9 7434.1 5578.8 1608.9 80.9
srw 5.3 0.0 2129.8 2277.1 437.2 4.2
hrs 220.1 14.2 5804.3 5504.2 1430.6 59.0
white 182.9 10.9 4098.5 4128.8 1128.5 20.9
durum 3.3 0.0 814.2 419.9 190.4 61.0
corn 1006.9 2.0 20308.1 32287.4 10481.8 1024.6
soybeans 790.0 120.7 31203.4 30369.1 6977.5 304.3
soymeal 641.9 0.0 6629.9 6909.7 3373.8 87.3
soyoil 55.6 0.0 520.0 405.9 197.3 0.5
upland cotton 307.8 13.2 12167.2 10878.8 7446.0 1030.7
pima cotton 20.2 0.0 408.3 467.2 221.5 35.3
sorghum 11.1 0.0 1140.4 476.6 508.4 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 59.7 58.3 29.8 0.0
rice 78.6 0.0 2293.1 1907.5 726.1 0.0
General Comments: Wheat markets were sideways to lower yesterday in correction trading. Only Chicago SRW closed sideways to higher. Speculators keep buying based on the stronger world prices but the more commercial markets of HRW and Minneapolis could only maintain recent strength and not add onto gains. Chart patterns are bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets remain strong in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the Russian supply situation. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. The Ruble has also been firmer against the US Dollar and this has also caused Russian prices to form in the world market. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. US farmers planted less Wheat than any time in the last 100 years so no real change in the world scenario of less supply is indicated.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week and then into the weekend. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 595 and 610 March. Support is at 575, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 583, 587, and 592 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 488, 481, and 477 March, with resistance at 504, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 553, 551, and 549 March, and resistance is at 560, 563, and 566 March.
General Comments: Rice was higher in active trading. Speculators have also been the best buyers. Prices are profitable for producers at this time so producers are selling some Rice into the cash market. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are having to battle it out now for supplies with almost all of the Rice in Texas and Louisiana spoken for. That makes Arkansas as the lone provider of Rice in volume for the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1379, 1390, and 1438 March. Support is at 1347, 1335, and 1326 March, with resistance at 1370, 1380, and 1392 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and moved above what had been strong resistance at 390 to 392 March. Speculators were strong buyers. Oats closed a little higher yesterday. It was a positive trade in both markets but especially in Corn. Demand and the lack of identified demand over the short-term is partly dictating the price action. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. However, ideas are that export demand is about to improve. Southeast Asia has been a reluctant buyer due to quality concerns of Corn shipped from the PNW, but Ukraine prices have been getting stronger and Corn from that origin might start to price out of the market sooner rather than later. China is also expected to buy once the Lunar New Year holiday is over. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding and not selling.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 397, 398, and 407 March. Support is at 389, 385, and 382 March, and resistance is at 394, 396, and 400 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 317, 319, and 321 March. Support is at 312, 309, and 308 March, and resistance is at 318, 320, and 324 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower. Soybean Meal was higher on spreads against Soybean Oil. Soybeans were down on the lack of fresh demand from China and on good crop conditions in Brazil. China might not buy Soybeans until after the Lunar New Year holiday. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. Lower prices are possible as Brazil appears to have a bumper crop being harvested. Initial results from northern areas suggest improved yields. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 894 and 884 March. Support is at 903, 890, and 883 March, and resistance is at 915, 922, and 934 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 297.00 and 291.00 March Support is at 296.00, 293.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 301.00, 304.00, and 307.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3190 March. Support is at 3240, 3200, and 3160 March, with resistance at 3360, 3410, and 3440 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was lower in consolidation trading before the Lunar New Year holiday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 474.00, and 473.00 March, with resistance at 481.00, 485.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2980 and 3070 April. Support is at 2890, 2820, and 2800 April, with resistance at 3000, 3040, and 3050 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow late in the week and into the weekend. Temperatures should average near normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +50 Mar +164 Mar +110 Mar +52 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +58 Mar +112 Mar +46 Mar
March +59 Mar +112 Mar +47 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 23
WINNIPEG – The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 23, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 443.90 -34.00 Mar 2020 up 1.10
Track Thunder Bay 480.10 7.00 Mar 2020 dn 4.80
Track Vancouver 493.10 20.00 Mar 2020 dn 4.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (email@example.com, or