About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed January 1 102.2 101.6- 102.5
Placed in December 103.2 100.5- 105.3
Marketed in December 105.2 103.9- 105.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan. 1 in December in December
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 103.5 105.8
Allendale Inc. 102.5 104.1 103.9
HedgersEdge 102.4 104.4 105.7
Linn Group 102.2 105.3 104.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.6 101.8 105.4
NFC Markets 101.8 100.5 104.8
Texas A&M Extension 102.0 102.0 105.7
U.S. Commodities 102.3 103.5 105.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 21

CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/16/2020 01/09/2020 01/17/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 318 168 343 17,246 6,534
CORN 345,859 483,559 1,127,279 9,431,246 20,615,492
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 396 218
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 48 100 0 2,066 1,793
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 18,875 20,319 65,845 976,556 564,622
SOYBEANS 1,199,136 1,149,404 1,130,306 24,169,056 19,540,223
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 435,129 560,976 524,942 15,917,942 14,016,732
Total 1,999,365 2,214,526 2,848,715 50,514,508 54,745,614

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday with Chicago SRW the leader to the upside. Speculators keep buying based on the stronger world prices and they buy in Chicago as a matter of course. Chart patterns are bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the Russian supply situation. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. The Ruble has also been firmer against the US Dollar and this has also caused Russian prices to form in the world market. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. US farmers planted less Wheat than any time in the last 100 years so no real change in the world scenario of less supply is indicated.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation over the middle of the week and on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 591, 595, and 610 March. Support is at 572, 560, and 557 March, with resistance at 583, 587, and 593 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 488, 481, and 477 March, with resistance at 504, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 553, 551, and 549 March, and resistance is at 563, 566, and 567 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on the lack of Chinese buying yesterday. The tone remains firm but some speculators and producers have been selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. Mills and exporters are having to battle it out now for supplies with almost all of the Rice in Texas and Louisiana spoken for. That makes Arkansas as the lone provider of Rice in volume for the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1379, 1390, and 1438 March. Support is at 1335, 1326, and 1316 March, with resistance at 1364, 1368, and 1380 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.92 9.52 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.59 9.77 0.00
Brokens 9.00 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats closed a little higher yesterday. Demand and the lack of identified demand over the short-term is partly dictating the price action. Corn also moved a little lower in sympathy with Soybeans that moved significantly lower. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. The weekly chart patterns are bullish for both markets. Corn could trade to 405 and then 420 based off the weekly charts and basis the nearby futures contract.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 382, and 379 March, and resistance is at 390, 392, and 393 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 317, 319, and 321 March. Support is at 308, 304, and 301 March, and resistance is at 316, 318, and 320 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and the products were also lower. Soybean Oil was the leader to the downside in the products and was lower along with the recent weakness in Palm Oil. Soybean Meal held rather well, but Soybeans were down on the lack of fresh demand from China. China might not buy Soybeans until after the Lunar New Year holiday. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 911, 907, and 894 March. Support is at 916, 911, and 903 March, and resistance is at 934, 936, and 939 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. To down with objectives of 298.00, 297.00, and 291.00 March Support is at 299.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 307.00, and 308.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3190 March. Support is at 3240, 3200, and 3160 March, with resistance at 3360, 3410, and 3440 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago Soybeans and Soybean Oil. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil was higher on news that MPOA had estimated production down on the month. SGS showed less export demand for Palm Oil so far this month.
Overnight News: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association said that production fell 17% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 477.00, 474.00, and 473.00 March, with resistance at 485.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2820 April. Support is at 2800, 2760, and 2700 April, with resistance at 2900, 3000, and 3040 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow late in the week. Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +50 Mar +164 Mar +110 Mar +50 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +57 Mar +112 Mar +47 Mar
March +57 Mar +112 Mar +47 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 21
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Jan. 21, 2020.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 447.00 -34.00 Mar 2020 unchanged
Track Thunder Bay 483.80 7.00 Mar 2020 dn 4.20
Track Vancouver 496.80 20.00 Mar 2020 dn 4.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 770.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 770.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 740.00 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 707.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 772.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 772.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 742.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 710.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 775.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 710.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,060.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 235.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0630)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 74,398 lots, or 3.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 3,402 3,459 3,402 3,459 3,452 3,449 -3 21 1,260
May-20 4,047 4,095 4,033 4,092 4,070 4,055 -15 69,631 111,154
Jul-20 – – – 4,043 4,057 4,043 -14 0 27
Sep-20 3,962 4,000 3,947 4,000 3,979 3,965 -14 4,600 16,133
Nov-20 3,806 3,830 3,804 3,829 3,832 3,818 -14 20 251
Jan-21 3,831 3,850 3,812 3,850 3,848 3,825 -23 126 422
Corn
Turnover: 554,128 lots, or 10.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 1,875 1,883 1,865 1,880 1,886 1,875 -11 97,534 96,019
May-20 1,928 1,933 1,909 1,924 1,935 1,919 -16 397,782 691,572
Jul-20 1,953 1,955 1,936 1,946 1,958 1,946 -12 540 4,724
Sep-20 1,978 1,978 1,959 1,968 1,981 1,967 -14 57,098 192,722
Nov-20 1,991 1,991 1,977 1,983 1,995 1,986 -9 379 1,290
Jan-21 2,005 2,005 1,993 1,998 2,009 1,999 -10 795 3,326
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,085,561 lots, or 29.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 2,668 2,668 2,591 2,611 2,624 2,613 -11 120,097 115,653
May-20 2,707 2,708 2,662 2,678 2,695 2,679 -16 741,132 1,430,932
Jul-20 2,739 2,739 2,695 2,707 2,724 2,712 -12 453 5,027
Aug-20 2,771 2,771 2,741 2,741 2,771 2,752 -19 7 102
Sep-20 2,788 2,788 2,748 2,764 2,777 2,761 -16 221,261 1,109,400
Nov-20 2,806 2,806 2,777 2,781 2,800 2,791 -9 56 1,987
Dec-20 2,821 2,821 2,796 2,806 2,822 2,800 -22 26 213
Jan-21 2,829 2,829 2,796 2,811 2,820 2,806 -14 2,529 6,984
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,465,423 lots, or 87.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20 6,594 6,606 6,508 6,606 6,504 6,534 30 24 157
Mar-20 6,236 6,398 6,232 6,292 6,274 6,306 32 43 491
Apr-20 6,076 6,076 6,044 6,064 6,228 6,060 -168 3 9
May-20 5,964 6,076 5,888 6,068 6,006 5,974 -32 1,405,408 505,692
Jun-20 5,906 5,906 5,864 5,904 5,838 5,882 44 16 6
Jul-20 – – – 5,936 5,892 5,936 44 0 304
Aug-20 – – – 5,806 5,764 5,806 42 0 6
Sep-20 5,722 5,804 5,666 5,796 5,776 5,734 -42 59,689 65,354
Oct-20 – – – 5,762 5,762 5,762 0 0 4
Nov-20 5,682 5,734 5,682 5,734 5,708 5,714 6 3 6
Dec-20 5,758 5,758 5,650 5,650 5,674 5,704 30 2 85
Jan-21 5,624 5,668 5,560 5,662 5,634 5,616 -18 235 1,321
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 466,720 lots, or 30.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20 – – – 6,514 6,514 6,514 0 0 23
May-20 6,452 6,548 6,378 6,530 6,518 6,460 -58 428,484 523,769
Jul-20 – – – 6,450 6,506 6,450 -56 0 418
Aug-20 – – – 6,416 6,472 6,416 -56 0 2
Sep-20 6,388 6,464 6,318 6,446 6,428 6,382 -46 38,118 157,110
Nov-20 6,290 6,350 6,290 6,350 6,486 6,314 -172 7 204
Dec-20 – – – 6,380 6,552 6,380 -172 0 0
Jan-21 6,438 6,514 6,382 6,508 6,520 6,444 -76 111 901
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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