William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The signing of Phase One promised to deliver volatility & and it didn’t disappoint – last Thur Mar Corn plummeted 12 cents & the very next day exploded for a 14 cent gain – netting out to a 3 ½ cent gain for the week! This mkt action is very promising and certainly a harbinger of better days ahead! US Corn is the cheapest in the world – it shows
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Tues Inspections – 345,000 (450-800) & Thur sales – 797,000 (200-5000
- WED 1/15 PHASE ONE SIGNING – many thought it would never happen but alas it has – however, the mkt reacted quite negatively to the news – very much in a BUY THE RUMOR – SELL THE FACT mode! As the trade news has been bandied around for 2-3 weeks! But the very next day, Mar Corn recouped all the losses & then some – in an amazing display of solidarity for higher prices ahead!
- JAN CROP REPORT –
Production – 13,692 (Nov – 13,661)
Yield 168 (Nov – 167)
Qtly 11389 (Dec – 11937)
US Stocks 1.892 (Dec – 1.910)
Global Stk 297.8 (Dec – 300.5)
- SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – a record Brazilian Crop has put continual pressure on prices – as frequent rains & lack of intense heat have nurtured their crops
- GEO/POLITICAL ISSUES – have calmed down considerably – thank God!!
Whatever the mkt’s short-term reaction to the trade deals, The 10 year low price level will make exports very viable & prices should maintain an upward arc – however circuitous the route!!
What trade deal? Ever since the mkt “even sniffed the deal”, Mar Beans have dropped like a rock – losing 30 cents since last Wednesday (945-915)! But the reasons for this plummet make sense! First of all, a classic BUY THE RUMOR – SELL THE FACT!! And second, many pundits feel the Chinese can’t possibly fulfill their export expectations – given their trade mentality of buying the “cheapest available”! But we say, “when all the smoke clears” – having various trade deals is far superior to not having them – and that in time, especially from the current depressed price levels, good things will happen!!
So what’s not to like? Mar Wht is on 4 year highs – off a plethora of factors – 100 year low acreage – a French Labor/Transit Strike – Australian Bush Fires – limited Russian farm selling – production woes in the Black Sea Area & finally higher world vales in Egypt’s two more recent tenders! It’s “all coming home to roost” – it doesn’t take much when a mkt hovers just over a 10-year low! And a possible “ace in the hole” – more Chinese buying off the PHASE ONE trade signing!!
After a near-vertical upswing from Sept to Dec (105-127), The Feb Cat seems to be in “coil-mode” – consolidating for a potential move higher! The mkt has been feeding off the positive energy & demand from a stock mkt – which makes new record highs almost every day! But in the “cautionary tale” department, continued increasing placements on the 3 previous Cattle-On-Feed Reports (another report on Friday) & an anticipated increase in Beef production from the 1st to the 2nd Qtr – has the mkt “on notice” – for possibly forging a top – late 1st Qtr/early 2nd /Qtr!
China has strong demand, high pork prices & “done trade deal”! So what’s wrong with this picture – the picture being a Feb Hog chart (above) which stubbornly clings To 6-month lows despite the obvious potential for prodigious US/China pork trade! It all boils down to the short-term bearishness– which yields record slaughter & avg hog weights – Day-after-day but no confirmed US pork sales to China! But that can’t last – can it??
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