About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

MAR CORN

The signing  of Phase One promised to deliver volatility & and it didn’t disappoint – last Thur Mar Corn plummeted 12 cents & the very next day exploded for a 14 cent gain – netting out to a 3 ½ cent gain for the week!  This mkt action is very promising and certainly a harbinger of better days ahead! US Corn is the cheapest in the world – it shows

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Tues Inspections – 345,000 (450-800) & Thur sales – 797,000 (200-5000
  • WED 1/15 PHASE ONE SIGNING – many thought it would never happen but alas it has – however, the mkt reacted quite negatively to the news – very much in a BUY THE RUMOR – SELL THE FACT mode! As the trade news has been bandied around for 2-3 weeks! But the very next day, Mar Corn recouped all the losses & then some – in an amazing display of solidarity for higher prices ahead!
  • JAN CROP REPORT –

Production –  13,692  (Nov – 13,661)

Yield                 168      (Nov – 167)

Qtly                  11389  (Dec – 11937)

US Stocks        1.892   (Dec  – 1.910)

Global Stk       297.8   (Dec –  300.5)

  • SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – a record Brazilian Crop has put continual pressure on prices – as frequent rains & lack of intense heat have nurtured their crops
  • GEO/POLITICAL ISSUES – have calmed down considerably – thank God!!

Whatever the mkt’s short-term reaction  to the  trade deals, The 10 year low price level will make exports very viable & prices should maintain an upward arc – however circuitous the route!!

 

MAR BEANS

What trade deal? Ever since the mkt “even sniffed the deal”, Mar Beans have dropped like a rock – losing 30 cents since last Wednesday (945-915)!  But the reasons for this plummet make sense!  First of all, a classic BUY THE RUMOR – SELL THE FACT!! And second, many pundits feel the Chinese can’t possibly fulfill their export expectations – given their trade mentality of buying the “cheapest available”! But we say, “when all the smoke clears” – having various trade deals is far superior to not having them – and that in time, especially from the current depressed price levels, good things will happen!!

 

MAR WHT

So what’s not to like?  Mar Wht is on 4 year highs – off a plethora of factors – 100 year low acreage – a French Labor/Transit Strike – Australian Bush Fires – limited Russian farm selling – production woes in the Black Sea Area & finally higher world vales in Egypt’s two more recent tenders!  It’s “all coming home to roost” – it doesn’t take much when a mkt hovers just over a 10-year low! And a possible “ace in the hole” – more Chinese buying off the PHASE ONE trade signing!!

 

FEB CAT

After a near-vertical upswing from Sept to Dec (105-127), The Feb Cat seems to be in “coil-mode” – consolidating for a potential move higher! The mkt has been feeding off the positive energy & demand from a stock mkt – which makes new record highs almost every day!  But in the “cautionary tale” department,  continued increasing placements on the 3 previous Cattle-On-Feed Reports (another report on Friday) & an anticipated increase in Beef production from the 1st to the 2nd Qtr – has the mkt “on notice” – for possibly forging a top –   late 1st Qtr/early 2nd /Qtr!

 

FEB HOGS

China has strong demand, high pork prices & “done trade deal”! So what’s wrong with this picture – the picture being a Feb Hog chart (above) which stubbornly clings To 6-month lows despite the obvious potential for prodigious US/China pork trade! It all boils down to the short-term bearishness– which yields record slaughter & avg hog weights – Day-after-day  but no confirmed US pork sales to China! But that can’t last – can it??

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920  Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337        
Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com