About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 15, 2020 235 Jan 13, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 15, 2020 281 Jan 13, 2020
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 15, 2020 10 Jan 13, 2020
SOYBEAN January Jan. 15, 2020 18 Jan 13, 2020

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 13
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 09, 2020
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/09/2020 01/02/2020 01/10/2019 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 24 0 0 16,784 6,191
CORN 460,307 550,930 1,013,970 9,062,135 19,488,213
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 396 218
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 100 2,018 1,793
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 20,319 67,388 8,262 957,681 498,777
SOYBEANS 1,136,304 1,039,014 1,100,334 22,956,159 18,409,917
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 473,960 420,653 550,798 15,395,552 13,491,790
Total 2,091,014 2,077,985 2,673,464 48,390,725 51,896,899
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed to lower yesterday with all of the weakness seen in the nearby months. Chart patterns are still bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. Black Sea prices were reported to be higher yesterday. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation over the middle of the week and on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 570, 573, and 595 March. Support is at 557, 551, and 545 March, with resistance at 568, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 511 and 525 March. Support is at 485, 477, and 467 March, with resistance at 498, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 565 and 579 March. Support is at 550, 547, and 542 March, and resistance is at 566, 567, and 570 March.

DJ Rising Prices For Wheat to Egypt Boost CBOT Futures — Market Talk
08:25 ET – The latest offers for tenders to Egypt for a shipment in March 1st through the 10th are higher than the country’s previous booking — with the lowest offer being $3 per metric ton higher than the booking Egypt’s grain authority made last week for Russian, Ukrainian, and Romanian wheat at $232.23 per ton, according to AgResource. The higher offers spurred wheat futures on the CBOT higher overnight, with the March contract currently trading up 1.2%. “The world wheat market took the offers as validation of a further rise in value,” says AgResource. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on speculative selling and perhaps a little bit of producer selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time and that has caused many to sell a little Rice into the market. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal. Mexico might have bought 100,000 tons of Texas Rice yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1350 March. Support is at 1316, 1307, and 1297 March, with resistance at 1340, 1344, and 1349 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats moved a little higher. The main driver remains demand or rather the lack of identified demand over the short-term. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 397, 398, and 407 March. Support is at 387, 382, and 380 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 317 and 319 March. Support is at 301, 295, and 288 March, and resistance is at 318, 320, and 324 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and Soybean Meal were slightly higher. Soybean Oil was lower. It was a narrow trading range in Soybeans and for Soybean Meal but Soybean Oil did make new lows for the move. The US and China have reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods. A signing ceremony will be held in the US on January 15 and then new buying from China is expected. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused firm basis levels in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 936, and 934 March, and resistance is at 950, 954, and 956 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 299.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 308.00, and 312.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3320 and 3190 March. Support is at 3380, 3360, and 3290 March, with resistance at 3450, 3500, and 3550 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower in nearby months and a little higher in new crop months. The weakness came on the back of the price action in Chicago, but Canola held better than Soybeans or Soybean Oil. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower on news that India is reducing it buying from Malaysia due to a political dispute. Supplies could run short due to the demand and reduced production over the next couple of months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 491.00 and 500.00 March. Support is at 478.00, 476.00, and 473.00 March, with resistance at 485.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3060, 3020, and 3000 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the south and east and near to below normal in the north and west.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +51 Mar +164 Mar +110 Mar +51 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +56 Mar +112 Mar +47 Mar
March +56 Mar +112 Mar +50 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 449.20 -34.00 Mar 2020 up 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 491.00 7.00 Mar 2020 up 0.80
Basis: Vancouver 504.00 20.00 Mar 2020 up 0.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 780.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 780.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 777.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 750.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 782.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 782.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 780.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 752.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 772.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 690.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,090.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 240.00 -11.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0677)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 84,191 lots, or 3.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 3,397 3,397 3,397 0 0 0
Mar-20 3,455 3,458 3,422 3,434 3,454 3,431 -23 33 1,269
May-20 4,116 4,139 4,095 4,138 4,117 4,118 1 78,412 124,933
Jul-20 – – – 4,093 4,093 4,093 0 0 29
Sep-20 4,043 4,048 4,019 4,039 4,039 4,032 -7 5,703 14,956
Nov-20 3,834 3,870 3,834 3,863 3,874 3,859 -15 43 244
Corn
Turnover: 357,873 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 1,811 1,811 1,811 0 0 0
Mar-20 1,877 1,884 1,875 1,875 1,870 1,880 10 36,164 252,870
May-20 1,918 1,928 1,917 1,919 1,913 1,922 9 267,652 736,336
Jul-20 1,947 1,956 1,945 1,945 1,940 1,950 10 1,046 5,525
Sep-20 1,972 1,981 1,968 1,971 1,968 1,973 5 52,914 191,082
Nov-20 1,985 1,992 1,983 1,985 1,978 1,987 9 97 1,737
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,154,437 lots, or 30.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,523 2,571 2,520 2,533 2,528 2,538 10 275 1,955
Mar-20 2,571 2,595 2,567 2,583 2,585 2,577 -8 147,355 256,757
May-20 2,654 2,673 2,651 2,659 2,666 2,659 -7 802,524 1,719,176
Jul-20 2,690 2,706 2,688 2,697 2,701 2,693 -8 425 5,351
Aug-20 2,760 2,760 2,738 2,750 2,746 2,745 -1 10 108
Sep-20 2,746 2,767 2,743 2,754 2,761 2,753 -8 203,770 1,138,294
Nov-20 2,771 2,789 2,771 2,782 2,793 2,777 -16 65 1,960
Dec-20 2,828 2,828 2,818 2,820 2,818 2,822 4 13 200
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,035,729 lots, or 12.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,588 6,588 6,500 6,500 6,576 6,506 -70 23 4,537
Feb-20 6,600 6,634 6,500 6,500 6,634 6,616 -18 122 159
Mar-20 6,584 6,592 6,506 6,508 6,614 6,540 -74 113 524
Apr-20 6,370 6,414 6,358 6,358 6,440 6,380 -60 10 9
May-20 6,352 6,356 6,214 6,222 6,400 6,276 -124 1,964,663 708,733
Jun-20 6,154 6,154 6,116 6,118 6,270 6,144 -126 12 15
Jul-20 – – – 6,040 6,162 6,040 -122 0 305
Aug-20 – – – 5,980 6,102 5,980 -122 0 7
Sep-20 6,010 6,010 5,878 5,886 6,044 5,936 -108 70,779 73,997
Oct-20 – – – 5,912 6,018 5,912 -106 0 4
Nov-20 5,808 5,860 5,808 5,860 5,980 5,834 -146 2 9
Dec-20 6,002 6,002 5,850 5,850 6,026 5,916 -110 5 41
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 629,244 lots, or 42.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 6,590 6,590 6,590 0 0 0
Mar-20 6,734 6,790 6,734 6,790 6,856 6,762 -94 2 415
May-20 6,850 6,850 6,740 6,758 6,870 6,786 -84 554,460 626,683
Jul-20 – – – 6,798 6,882 6,798 -84 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,702 6,784 6,702 -82 0 1
Sep-20 6,714 6,714 6,622 6,636 6,724 6,664 -60 74,773 161,168
Nov-20 6,646 6,646 6,558 6,578 6,666 6,574 -92 9 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,698 6,790 6,698 -92 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322