About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337


The USDA surprised traders on Friday at 11am with a bearish report – higher across the board – yield, production & carry-out!  But the good news is the mkt took it very well rallying a quick dime – from a spike-lower opening – to close 2 ½ cents higher! The mkt has already dialed in “much bad” & was looking ahead to the trade signing on Wed!


  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections – 460,307 (450-600) – Fri Sales – 161,000 (350-700)
  • JAN CROP REPORT- definitely was a bearish surprise with all but one # coming in over expectations

Production –  13.692   (est – 13.513   Nov – 13.661)

Yield                168        (est –   166.2    Nov –  167.0)

12-1 Qtly        11389    (est –   11511   Dec     11.937)

US Stocks        1.892     (est  –  1.757   Dec      1.910)

Global Stk        297.8    (est  –   296.6   Dec –   300.5)

  • SIGNING OF US/CHINA PHASE ONE – The Chinese VP arrived Sunday –
  • The actual signing is scheduled for Wednesday
  • SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – has been bearish with frequent rains & no oppressive heat – this fundamental will take center stage after Wed’s signing
  • PRODUCER SELLING – still very little farmer movement of grain
  • US DRONE ATTACK ON IRAN – things have calmed down considerably – one mitigating factor is Iran’s admission that they accidentally shot down an Iraqi commercial airliner
  • STILL HISTORICALLY CHEAP – we don’t necessarily recommend “buying price” just because it’s low –  but it’s hard to ignore a mkt on a 10-year low! Trade deals with Japan, Mexico, Canada & China are precisely what the Dr. ordered – those coupled with a competitive world price should “Grease the export skids” in 2020!!



A near-vertical 80 cent rally (880-960) since 12/1 has been tested multiple times in the past few weeks – and impressively has help 75% of the rally! First, consistently bearish weather in South America promises a record Bean crop – Second, The Iran airstrike rattled geo-political nerves & Third, the Jan  USDA Report last Friday reflected higher production – 3,558 (est – 3519) – yield 47.4 (est – 46.6) – US Stocks 475.0  (est – 432).  So that mkt action tells us a lot of bearishness is already built in – and that any “good news” should be met with substantially positive mkt action!!



Since Sept 1, Mar Wht has clearly been the upside leader in the grain complex rallying over $1.00 (457 – 567) – coming close to testing the June highs!  And the USDA Jan Report issued Friday at 11am – may be providing a good reason why!! While the report was widely regarded as a bearish disappointment for corn & Beans, this was not the case for the wht #’s!  First the total acreage is predicted to be the lowest in 100 years – second, the stock number were all in line or less than estimates – 12/1 Qtly –  1.834 (est – 1.917) US Stocks – .9658 & Global Stks – 288.1 (est – 287.3).  In addition, the “cool-down” of the Iran incident would imply a resumption of the Iraqi Wht business – a welcome boon to exports!!



Unlike what many are saying, the Feb Cat contract looks more like a mkt which is temporarily stalling out – after a sustained run – readying itself for the next leg up – versus a mkt getting ready to capitulate!  A strong cash mkt on Friday led to the futures 2nd highest close of the year! So despite big placements in the past 3 months & the likelihood of a big production increase from the 2nd to 3rd Qtr, the “OLD BULL” still has a lot of life in her yet!!



Feb Hogs directional narrative falls conveniently under the category of “WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY”?  Whereas the longer term export potential of US Pork to China seems to be a foregone conclusion, nothing has been “signed on the dotted line” – so the mkt has been left to focus on the short-term bearishness of record daily slaughters & record average weights – leading to lower highs & lower lows in the past two weeks!!


141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920  Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.



Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337