About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 14, 2020 132 Jan 10, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 14, 2020 417 Jan 10, 2020
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 14, 2020 2 Jan 02, 2020
SOYBEAN January Jan. 14, 2020 55 Jan 09, 2020

DJ U.S. Total Prevented Acreage Data – Jan 13
U.S. acreage data for select crops reported as planted, failed and prevented
by farmers to the Farm Service Agency. Prevented acres is land
not planted due to poor conditions. Failed acres is land farmers planted
and abandoned. Farmers participating in various FSA programs are required
to submit a report on their cropland.
Source: USDA
In acres.
Sum of Sum of Sum of
Planted Acres Failed Acres Prevented Acres
ALL CORN 86,716,852 459,349 11,433,459
COTTON- ELS 164,439 2,485 24,781
COTTON- Upland 11,994,919 1,244,113 494,425
SOYBEANS 75,016,490 67,381 4,461,432
WHEAT 46,464,147 378,909 2,220,072

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Friday and how the
government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street
Journal Survey.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production
(Production in million bushels)
(Yield in bushels per acre)
(Harvested area in million acres)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn Production 13,692.0 13,494 13,030-13,701 13,661
Corn Yield 168.0 165.9 164.5-167.5 167.0
Harvested Acres 81.5 81.3 79.2-81.8 81.8
Soybean Production 3,558.0 3,519 3,457-3,591 3,550
Soybean Yield 47.4 46.6 45.9-47.2 46.9
Harvested Acres 75.0 75.6 75.0-77.2 75.6
****
U.S. 2019-20 Stockpiles (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range December
Corn 1,892.0 1,753 1,479-1,960 1,910
Soybeans 475.0 432 310-520 475
Wheat 965.0 972 930-1,000 974
****
World 2019-20 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA Dec.
Corn 297.8 297.3 290.5-301.0 300.6
Soybeans 96.7 95.7 91.7-97.5 96.4
Wheat 288.1 288.2 284.0-290.0 289.5

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Friday
and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2020-21 U.S. Winter Wheat Seedings Estimates
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range 2019-20
All Winter Wheat 30.8 30.7 30.0 – 32.2 31.2
Hard Red Winter 21.8 22.1 21.6 – 23.1 22.5
Soft Red Winter 5.64 5.1 4.6 – 5.6 5.2
White Winter 3.37 3.4 3.3 – 3.5 3.5

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Friday and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Dec. 1, 2019 (million bushels)
Friday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range Sept. 2019 Dec. 2018
Corn 11,389 11,416 10,926-11,660 2,221 11,937
Soybeans 3,252 3,179 3,023- 3,379 909 3,746
Wheat 1,834 1,922 1,835- 2,047 2,346 2,009

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jan 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD===================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19 17/18 : 19/20 18/19 17/18 : 19/20 18/19 17/18
Soybeans 475.0 909.0 438.0 :149.15 149.22 153.07 : 337.70 358.28 341.99
Brazil na na : 76.00 74.95 76.14 : 123.00 117.00 122.00
Argentina na na : 8.20 9.10 2.13 : 53.00 55.30 37.80
China na na : 0.13 0.12 0.13 : 18.10 15.97 15.28
Soyoil 1,446 1,776 1,995 : 11.84 11.05 10.54 : 56.86 55.85 55.15
Corn 1,892 2,221 2,140 :165.64 181.43 148.19 : 1,111 1,122 1,080
China na na : 0.02 0.02 0.02 : 260.77 257.33 259.07
Argentina na na : 33.50 36.00 22.47 : 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa na na : 1.50 1.10 2.07 : 14.00 11.80 13.10
Cotton 5.40 4.85 4.20 : 43.85 41.34 41.51 : 120.48 118.14 123.78
All Wheat 965 1,080 1,099 :181.07 173.06 182.47 : 764.39 731.45 762.88
China na na : 1.10 1.01 1.00 : 133.59 131.43 134.33
EU 27 na na : 31.00 23.31 23.38 : 154.00 136.86 151.13
Canada na na : 24.00 24.38 22.00 : 32.35 32.20 30.38
Argentina na na : 13.00 12.19 12.73 : 19.00 19.50 18.50
Australia na na : 8.20 9.01 13.85 : 15.60 17.30 20.94
Russia na na : 34.00 35.84 41.43 : 73.50 71.69 85.17
Ukraine na na : 20.50 16.02 17.78 : 29.00 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 45.0 64.0 35.0 : na na na
Barley 89.0 87.0 94.0 : na na na
Oats 36.0 38.0 41.0 : na na na : na na na
Rice 28.6 44.9 29.4 : 45.59 44.14 47.24 : 496.67 499.16 494.80

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Grain/Cotton Summary-Jan 10
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains 1/
Million metric tons
=========================================================================
Total Ending
Commodity Output Supply Trade 2/ Use 3/ Stocks
=========================================================================
World
Total grains 4/
2017/18 2619.04 3417.31 414.93 2600.70 816.61
2018/19 (Est.) 2625.96 3442.57 429.63 2642.79 799.79
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 2665.50 3462.95 426.56 2664.18 798.77
Jan 2662.86 3462.64 427.68 2669.81 792.83
Wheat
2017/18 762.88 1025.58 182.47 742.52 283.06
2018/19 (Est.) 731.45 1014.50 173.06 736.45 278.06
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 765.41 1043.26 179.81 753.76 289.50
Jan 764.39 1042.45 181.07 754.37 288.08
Coarse grains 5/
2017/18 1361.36 1746.99 185.23 1376.07 370.92
2018/19 (Est.) 1395.36 1766.27 212.43 1418.93 347.34
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 1401.70 1748.07 201.08 1416.59 331.48
Jan 1401.80 1749.14 201.03 1421.44 327.70
Rice, milled
2017/18 494.80 644.74 47.24 482.11 162.64
2018/19 (Est.) 499.16 661.80 44.14 487.41 174.39
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 498.40 671.63 45.67 493.83 177.80
Jan 496.67 671.05 45.59 494.00 177.05
United States
Total grains 4/
2017/18 437.43 541.29 94.57 357.95 88.76
2018/19 (Est.) 436.32 532.31 83.39 357.64 91.28
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 419.05 514.81 79.54 355.32 79.95
Jan 419.31 517.79 77.90 361.03 78.86
Wheat
2017/18 47.38 83.81 24.66 29.25 29.91
2018/19 (Est.) 51.31 84.89 25.48 30.02 29.39
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 52.26 84.50 26.54 31.46 26.51
Jan 52.26 84.50 26.54 31.71 26.26
Coarse grains 5/
2017/18 384.39 449.48 67.16 324.41 57.92
2018/19 (Est.) 377.91 438.46 54.94 323.05 60.47
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 360.82 421.98 49.91 319.70 52.37
Jan 361.19 425.05 48.26 325.10 51.69
Rice, milled
2017/18 5.66 8.00 2.76 4.30 0.93
2018/19 (Est.) 7.11 8.96 2.97 4.57 1.42
2019/20 (Proj.)
Dec 5.97 8.33 3.10 4.16 1.08
Jan 5.86 8.24 3.11 4.22 0.91
=========================================================================
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See
individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/
Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only
(excludes exports). 4/ Wheat coarse grains and milled rice. 5/
Corn sorghum barley oats rye millet and mixed grains (for U.S.
excludes millet and mixed grains).

BRIEF-Brazil’s 2019/2020 soybean output estimate upped to 122.225 mln T – Conab – Reuters
08-Jan-2020 06:06:14 AM
Jan 8 (Reuters) – ]
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 248.006 MILLION TNS VERSUS 246.634 MILLION TNS IN ESTIMATE AND 242.120 MILLION TONS IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 122.225 MILLION TNS VERSUS 121.092 MILLION TNS IN ESTIMATE AND 115.030 MILLION TNS IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 98.711 MILLIONTNS VERSUS 98.409 MILLION TNS IN ESTIMATE AND 100.046 MILLION TNS IN 2018/2019 ESTIMATE – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 FIRST-CORN CROP SEEN AT 26.617 MILLION TNS VERSUS 26.313 MILLION TNS IN ESTIMATE AND 25.647 IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 70.936 MILLION TNS VERSUS 70.936 MILLION TNS IN ESTIMATE AND 73.178 MILLION TNS IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 TOTAL CORN AREA SEEN AT 17.536 MILLION HA VERSUS 17.544 MILLION HA IN ESTIMATE AND 17.496 MILLION HA IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN AREA SEEN AT 36.798 MILLION HA VERSUS 36.791 MILLION HA IN ESTIMATEAND 35.874 MILLION HA IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT MILLION TNS VERSUS 34 MILLION TNS IN FORECAST AND 41.5 MILLION TNS IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL’S 2019/2020 SECOND-CORN AREA SEEN AT 12.878 MILLION HA VERSUS 12.878 MILLION HA IN ESTIMATE AND 12.878 MILLION HA IN 2018/2019 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 SOYBEAN YIELDS SEEN AT 3,322 KG/HA VERSUS 3,291 KG/HA IN DEC FORECAST AND 3,206 KG/HA IN 2018/19 – CONAB
• BRAZIL 2019/2020 TOTAL CORN YIELDS SEEN AT 5,629 KG/HA VERSUS 5,609 KG/HA IN DEC FORECAST AND 5,718 KG/HA IN 2018/19- CONAB

DJ China Seeking Food Security Amid Push to Relax Grain Imports: INTL FCStone — Market Talk
0240 GMT – China is in a difficult position of trying to balance poverty elimination and food security with the broader global push for it to liberalize its grain imports, says Darin Friedrichs, senior Asia commodity analyst at INTL FCStone. China’s Ministry of Commerce has said it will improve regulatory management of its quotas for corn, rice, and wheat, operate the quota system in line with WTO rules and likely increase grain imports, he notes. China had agreed to administer the quota system when it joined the World Trade Organization nearly 20 years ago, so if China does not expand the quotas, it would be a pretty hollow victory for the U.S, he says. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher and closed near the highs of the week. Chart patterns are bullish in all three markets and all are looking forward to increased demand for US Wheat. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. USDA released its monthly supply and demand updates and Winter Wheat plantings. All were in line with trade estimated but were considered bullish anyway. The Winter Wheat seedings report was especially bullish as it indicated that US farmers had planted less Wheat than at any time in the last 100 years.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation over the middle of the week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 570, 573, and 595 March. Support is at 555, 551, and 545 March, with resistance at 568, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 511 and 525 March. Support is at 485, 477, and 467 March, with resistance at 498, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 565 and 579 March. Support is at 550, 547, and 542 March, and resistance is at 566, 567, and 570 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 553,359
: Positions :
: 86,285 86,543 200,570 75,006 163,825 160,448 54,521 522,308 505,459: 31,050 47,899
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 28,582) :
: 5,600 7,465 19,245 1,474 490 3,361 1,956 29,680 29,157: -1,098 -575
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 15.6 36.2 13.6 29.6 29.0 9.9 94.4 91.3: 5.6 8.7
: Total Traders: 403 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 113 127 68 116 49 23 299 318:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 293,158
: Positions :
: 44,906 49,752 85,572 59,348 118,503 73,793 19,677 263,619 273,503: 29,539 19,655
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,019) :
: -1,792 -37 1,794 1,125 3,392 2,081 -1,862 3,208 3,287: 810 731
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 17.0 29.2 20.2 40.4 25.2 6.7 89.9 93.3: 10.1 6.7
: Total Traders: 292 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 49 89 79 82 35 14 249 202:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 62,787 :
: Positions :
: 32,247 33,578 1,128 0 28 4,720 9,029 3,685 5,085 793 2,797 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 :
: -57 2,941 62 0 -9 48 -4,059 536 -297 -314 -61 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.4 53.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 7.5 14.4 5.9 8.1 1.3 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 88 :
: 43 40 . 0 . 8 6 6 7 4 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 16,829 :
: Positions :
: 6,170 13,862 1,325 7 2,029 5,229 0 220 1,329 0 469 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 :
: -2,083 -1,504 206 7 -218 395 0 0 -155 0 61 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 36.7 82.4 7.9 0.0 12.1 31.1 0.0 1.3 7.9 0.0 2.8 :
: Number of raders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 10 19 . . . 4 0 . . 0 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher for the week and held within the recent trading range. The tone remains firm but some speculators and producers have been selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered. USDA issued its annual production reports along with its monthly supply and demand estimates. Production and ending stocks were cut and this should provide a bullish input for the trade this week.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and rains tomorrow and again late in the week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1350 March. Support is at 1307, 1297, and 1288 March, with resistance at 1340, 1344, and 1349 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,326 :
: Positions :
: 3,411 7,511 166 0 0 4,821 845 10 450 1,022 379 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 :
: 31 138 -1 0 0 619 28 0 -129 -15 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.1 66.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 42.6 7.5 0.1 4.0 9.0 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 12 15 . 0 0 20 . . 7 8 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats moved a little higher last week. The main driver remains demand or rather the lack of identified demand over the short-term. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report. That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices. USDA also issued its monthly supply and demand estimates along with its annual production report. Production was greater than expected but the demand, especially feed demand, was improved as well. The trade chose to concentrate on the improved demand as USDA still does not have a real handle on production. It will resurvey again in northern states to try to finally put the production estimates to rest for the extreme year of 2019.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 137,000 tons of optional origin Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 382, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 387, 388, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 317 and 319 March. Support is at 301, 295, and 288 March, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 318 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,783,463
: Positions :
: 138,627 247,314 431,806 497,354 745,895 406,567 160,944 1,474,353 1,585,959: 309,110 197,504
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 27,084) :
: -4,917 -5,453 22,228 465 2,634 4,080 993 21,856 20,402: 5,228 6,682
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 13.9 24.2 27.9 41.8 22.8 9.0 82.7 88.9: 17.3 11.1
: Total Traders: 792 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 158 115 174 376 367 51 30 665 615:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,721 :
: Positions :
: 1,167 3,742 132 0 0 528 217 0 1,376 0 0 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.7 79.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 11.2 4.6 0.0 29.1 0.0 0.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 7 8 . 0 0 . . 0 . 0 0 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were slightly higher for the week. It was a narrow trading range in Soybeans. The news that the US and China had reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish. A signing ceremony will be held in the US on January 15 and then new buying from China is expected. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. USDA issued its annual product ion report along with its monthly supply and demand estimates. Production was a little higher than expected for the same reasons as in Corn. USDA will resurvey some states in an effort to find the true production at least in the Spring. No real changes were made to demand but demand is expected to increase with the Chinese purchases.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 934, and 923 March, and resistance is at 950, 954, and 966 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 299.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 304.00, 308.00, and 312.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3320 and 3190 March. Support is at 3420, 3380, and 3360 March, with resistance at 3500, 3550, and 3570 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 859,039
: Positions :
: 67,555 91,387 234,135 284,499 407,217 206,443 54,098 792,632 786,837: 66,407 72,201
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 10,809) :
: -6,427 949 10,763 2,114 3,717 4,991 -4,324 11,442 11,105: -633 -296
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 10.6 27.3 33.1 47.4 24.0 6.3 92.3 91.6: 7.7 8.4
: Total Traders: 582 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 121 201 185 217 51 27 481 478:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 558,935
: Positions :
: 113,939 31,734 117,374 114,658 346,750 173,169 32,669 519,140 528,527: 39,795 30,408
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 18,744) :
: -126 3,165 4,691 5,631 2,160 2,880 476 13,076 10,492: 5,668 8,252
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.4 5.7 21.0 20.5 62.0 31.0 5.8 92.9 94.6: 7.1 5.4
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 62 110 81 79 43 19 297 227:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2020
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 469,191
: Positions :
: 51,874 81,981 80,049 160,629 245,704 128,710 32,456 421,262 440,190: 47,929 29,001
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 (Change in open interest: 14,715) :
: 2,200 6,688 702 2,456 568 6,557 4,376 11,914 12,335: 2,801 2,381
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 17.5 17.1 34.2 52.4 27.4 6.9 89.8 93.8: 10.2 6.2
: Total Traders: 319 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 77 82 101 83 40 17 255 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher. The Canadian Dollar was a little weaker and Canadian producers have slowed sales recently. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Trends are turning up in the market. Palm Oil was higher on news that Malaysia would implement B24 in its fuel blends. Indonesia has also announced plans to increase biofuels in its mixtures, including B48 and B50. India has improved its imports of Palm Oil and China has been buying. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there, but the tariffs are now gone and reports indicate that demand has sharply increased. Supplies could run short due to the demand and reuced production over the next couple of months.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 457,831 tons so far this month, up 21.6% from last month. AmSpec said that eexports are now 455,592 tons, up 24% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 491.00 and 500.00 March. Support is at 482.00, 478.00, and 476.00 March, with resistance at 485.00, 490.00, and 494.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3140 March. Support is at 3060, 3020, and 3000 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2020
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 182,116 :
: Positions :
: 144,714 105,372 5,474 1,958 424 3,118 36,670 7,331 5,858 13,947 14,300 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2019 :
: -1,666 8,135 2 -154 -4 1,251 -6,817 1,208 1,148 -640 2,940 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.5 57.9 3.0 1.1 0.2 1.7 20.1 4.0 3.2 7.7 7.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 219 :
: 39 59 4 4 . 18 35 11 31 53 21 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the south and east and near to below normal in the north and west.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +51 Mar +165 Mar +110 Mar +50 Mar +12 Mar N/A
February +56 Mar +112 Mar +48 Mar
March +57 Mar +112 Mar +50 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 449.20 -34.00 Mar 2020 up 2.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 491.00 7.00 Mar 2020 up 0.80
Basis: Vancouver 504.00 20.00 Mar 2020 up 0.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 792.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 792.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 792.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 765.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 795.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 795.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 795.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 767.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 777.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 692.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,130.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 251.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0610)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 133,987 lots, or 5.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 3,397 3,397 3,397 0 0 235
Mar-20 3,454 3,455 3,454 3,454 3,456 3,454 -2 11 1,269
May-20 4,088 4,148 4,079 4,111 4,079 4,117 38 127,479 115,826
Jul-20 – – – 4,093 4,093 4,093 0 0 29
Sep-20 4,040 4,076 4,009 4,038 4,047 4,039 -8 6,381 14,037
Nov-20 3,868 3,889 3,845 3,853 3,858 3,874 16 116 244
Corn
Turnover: 329,466 lots, or 6.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 1,811 1,811 1,811 0 0 0
Mar-20 1,870 1,878 1,866 1,878 1,870 1,870 0 62,012 267,626
May-20 1,912 1,919 1,908 1,918 1,912 1,913 1 231,845 727,629
Jul-20 1,941 1,947 1,938 1,947 1,941 1,940 -1 390 5,824
Sep-20 1,969 1,973 1,962 1,972 1,969 1,968 -1 35,092 190,164
Nov-20 1,980 1,985 1,975 1,985 1,983 1,978 -5 127 1,721
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,448,208 lots, or 38.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,533 2,533 2,522 2,528 2,607 2,528 -79 316 2,055
Mar-20 2,592 2,598 2,569 2,572 2,615 2,585 -30 91,636 266,620
May-20 2,667 2,682 2,651 2,655 2,692 2,666 -26 1,023,036 1,736,527
Jul-20 2,703 2,714 2,683 2,688 2,740 2,701 -39 670 5,087
Aug-20 2,752 2,764 2,740 2,740 2,776 2,746 -30 36 112
Sep-20 2,762 2,778 2,743 2,746 2,787 2,761 -26 331,265 1,132,424
Nov-20 2,796 2,800 2,770 2,773 2,815 2,793 -22 1,203 1,931
Dec-20 2,801 2,841 2,801 2,804 2,844 2,818 -26 46 202
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,791,998 lots, or 11.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,536 6,600 6,478 6,478 6,518 6,576 58 41 4,560
Feb-20 6,688 6,688 6,602 6,676 6,690 6,634 -56 10 262
Mar-20 6,676 6,676 6,544 6,618 6,618 6,614 -4 98 511
Apr-20 6,440 6,440 6,440 6,440 6,522 6,440 -82 1 12
May-20 6,466 6,466 6,318 6,384 6,404 6,400 -4 1,733,897 786,998
Jun-20 6,278 6,314 6,252 6,266 6,284 6,270 -14 8 20
Jul-20 – – – 6,162 6,162 6,162 0 0 305
Aug-20 6,102 6,102 6,102 6,102 6,074 6,102 28 2 7
Sep-20 6,100 6,102 5,968 6,032 6,054 6,044 -10 57,941 76,799
Oct-20 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 5,980 5,980 5,980 0 0 9
Dec-20 – – – 6,026 6,034 6,026 -8 0 39
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 658,574 lots, or 45.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,582 6,600 6,582 6,600 7,000 6,590 -410 2 0
Mar-20 – – – 6,856 6,856 6,856 0 0 415
May-20 6,930 6,938 6,780 6,872 6,902 6,870 -32 598,584 664,583
Jul-20 – – – 6,882 6,888 6,882 -6 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,784 6,814 6,784 -30 0 1
Sep-20 6,760 6,778 6,650 6,724 6,732 6,724 -8 59,987 151,401
Nov-20 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,666 6,668 6,666 -2 1 212
Dec-20 – – – 6,790 6,790 6,790 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322