About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jan 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2019—- —-Oct 2019—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 100,094,049 220,707,378 104,542,838 230,516,958
coffee, roasted 7,962,955 17,558,316 9,041,464 19,936,428
coffee, soluble
instant 3,937,878 8,683,021 4,924,419 10,858,344
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 5,553,751 12,246,021 9,996,321 22,041,888
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,083,381 4,593,855 3,178,932 7,009,545
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 8,502,605 18,748,244 10,234,271 22,566,568
cocoa paste,
not defatted 4,006,519 8,834,374 4,782,589 10,545,609
cocoa paste
defatted 4,708,132 10,381,431 5,329,467 11,751,475
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 8,475,324 18,688,089 7,704,072 16,987,479
cocoa powder,
sweetened 54,243 119,606 98,275 216,696
confectioners
coating 3,587,618 7,910,698 3,551,546 7,831,159
candy containing
chocolate 10,276,983 22,660,748 10,624,669 23,427,395

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher and trends turned up again in the market The weekly charts also indicate bullish trends. A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has also been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It did not really buy last week but will probably resume buying once the new trade deal is signed on January 15. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over and certified stocks are now leveling off.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see frequent periods of precipitation late this week and this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 9,038 bales, from 9,038 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6960, 6880, and 6850 March, with resistance of 7030, 7330, and 7440 March.

DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Jan 7
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 19 Oct 19 Sep 19 Nov 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 8,359,281 9,779,641 11,899,443 4,849,847
1 to 1 1/8 inch 64,298,190 48,059,348 60,388,842 59,231,853
upland 1 1/8 and over 104,412,209 96,674,221 86,702,652 76,803,935
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 6,115,896 4,778,421 39,145,920 7,468,069
All cotton 183,185,576 159,291,631 198,136,857 148,353,704
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 19 Oct 19 Sep 19 Nov 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 38,394 44,918 54,654 22,275
1 to 1 1/8 inch 295,319 220,735 277,364 272,050
upland 1 1/8 and over 479,561 444,021 398,222 352,758
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 28,090 21,947 179,796 34,301
All cotton 841,364 731,620 910,035 681,383

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 261,085
: Positions :
: 32,593 26,374 67,229 54,615 141,109 88,718 16,469 243,155 251,181: 17,929 9,904
: Changes from: December 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: 10,512) :
: 241 -2,062 6,910 2,982 7,684 570 -2,176 10,702 10,356: -190 156
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 10.1 25.7 20.9 54.0 34.0 6.3 93.1 96.2: 6.9 3.8
: Total Traders: 302 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 72 87 53 62 49 24 242 211:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is ready to trend lower once again. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 38% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 98.00, 95.00, and 92.00 March, with resistance at 102.00, 104.00, and 105.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 20,827 :
: Positions :
: 9,735 7,671 1,116 0 70 935 7,309 150 1,935 1,099 2,483 :
: Changes from: December 24, 2019 :
: 72 -341 16 0 -2 38 -83 -180 -104 83 364 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.7 36.8 5.4 0.0 0.3 4.5 35.1 0.7 9.3 5.3 11.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 85 :
: 22 12 6 0 . . 21 . 15 10 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts. The Brazilian crop is developing well but some exporters are out of previous crop supplies to sell. They might have found some more to sell in the last week as offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. Peru is also too dry right now. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.028 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 112.12 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms into next week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 117.00, 115.00, and 105.00 March. Support is at 121.00, 119.00, and 116.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 130.00 and 133.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 March. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 358,238
: Positions :
: 41,260 19,632 114,132 114,530 203,083 77,049 12,776 346,971 349,622: 11,267 8,617
: Changes from: December 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: 2,838) :
: -74 -159 1,299 1,984 1,999 -140 -60 3,069 3,079: -231 -241
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 5.5 31.9 32.0 56.7 21.5 3.6 96.9 97.6: 3.1 2.4
: Total Traders: 435 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 100 153 118 120 51 26 377 333:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: The markets closed higher on reports of a drought in the central-south area of Brazil. The dry weather has also caused local Corn prices to move higher. The market appears to be tight around the globe. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers and storms later in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1390 and 1440 March. Support is at 1350, 1340, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1380, 1400, and 1410 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 350.00 March. Support is at 362.00, 358.00, and 356.00 March, and resistance is at 369.00, 371.00, and 373.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,167,028
: Positions :
: 146,841 157,399 256,596 369,153 629,259 295,658 66,225 1,068,248 1,109,479: 98,780 57,549
: Changes from: December 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: -3,936) :
: -3,221 4,624 411 5,350 -1,127 -10,277 -5,681 -7,737 -1,772: 3,801 -2,164
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 13.5 22.0 31.6 53.9 25.3 5.7 91.5 95.1: 8.5 4.9
: Total Traders: 273 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 59 90 81 81 39 27 242 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets. Trends are trying to turn down in London but are sideways in New York. Prices have been cheaper lately based on ideas of very good production potential in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.807 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2500, 2580, and 2610 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1810, 1730, and 1690 March. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1730 March, with resistance at 1830, 1860, and 1890 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 31, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 318,552
: Positions :
: 51,406 35,696 93,462 94,889 158,694 65,304 21,699 305,061 309,552: 13,491 9,000
: Changes from: December 24, 2019 (Change in open interest: -7,053) :
: -4,741 -2,185 -3,369 -1,103 -206 1,630 -1,067 -7,583 -6,827: 531 -226
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.1 11.2 29.3 29.8 49.8 20.5 6.8 95.8 97.2: 4.2 2.8
: Total Traders: 228 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 53 88 40 40 37 17 205 158:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322