About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher last week. The weekly charts still show bullish trends and ideas are that further price gains are coming. A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has also been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. It did not really buy last week but will probably resume buying once the new trade deal is signed on January 15. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over and certified stocks are now leveling off.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see frequent periods of precipitation. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 9,038 bales, from 9,038 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6850, 6780, and 6700 March, with resistance of 6970, 7030, and 7330 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 3
As of Dec 27. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 19 0 0 0 0 12 -12
Mar 20 36,168 36,577 -409 23,901 24,227 -326
May 20 18,416 18,244 172 2,577 1,963 614
Jul 20 22,458 22,366 92 3,477 3,417 60
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 15,466 14,602 864 17,328 17,904 -576
Mar 21 5,674 5,521 153 967 967 0
May 21 2,414 2,415 -1 147 147 0
Jul 21 4,445 4,448 -3 220 220 0
Dec 21 1,093 1,093 0 1,445 1,445 0
Mar 22 440 440 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 106,574 105,706 868 50,076 50,316 -240
Open Change
Int
Dec 19 0 0 0
Mar 20 119,594 118,771 823
May 20 46,533 42,651 3,882
Jul 20 20,536 18,379 2,157
Oct 20 7 7 0
Dec 20 28,271 26,884 1,387
Mar 21 1,261 1,214 47
May 21 195 179 16
Jul 21 514 520 -6
Dec 21 223 221 2
Mar 22 2 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 217,136 208,828 8,308

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower for the week and the situation remains bearish. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range but is ready to trend lower once again. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 38% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to BOVE normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 98.00, and 95.00 March, with resistance at 102.00, 104.00, and 105.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower for the week in New York and in London. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas. The Brazilian crop is developing well but some exporters are out of previous crop supplies to sell. They might have found some more to sell in the last week as offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.032 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 114.89 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms into next week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 100.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 March, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 March. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1460 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/31/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
112,247 67,156 52,726 10,752 15,468 1,193
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.8% 47.0% 9.6% 13.8% 1.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
144 51 38 11 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
5,143 19,928 6,027 3,803 1,872 11,042
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 17.8% 5.4% 3.4% 1.7% 9.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 26 17 14 11 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,130 3,991
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.4% 3.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: The markets closed lower for the week on what appeared to be speculative selling based on currency relationships. Recent weakness in the Real has encouraged selling of Sugar into the world market even though the prices for Sugar are not all that high. Now the US Dollar has turned weaker and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers and storms later in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1310 and 1270 March. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1270 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 350.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 358.00, 360.00, and 362.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/31/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
83,580 28,854 56,995 13,099 2,536 2,985
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 34.5% 68.2% 15.7% 3.0% 3.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
128 43 38 12 4 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,130 7,662 4,458 3,346 1,892 4,211
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.3% 9.2% 5.3% 4.0% 2.3% 5.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 11 12 7 8 13
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,497 2,842
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.6% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in London and higher in New York last week despite a lower close on Friday. Prices have been cheaper lately based on ideas of very good production potential in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.796 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2560 March. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2430 March, with resistance at 2580, 2610, and 2650 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 March. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, with resistance at 1860, 1890, and 1910 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/31/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
366,959 182,861 263,904 50,803 12,037 15,985
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.8% 71.9% 13.8% 3.3% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 50 48 13 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
47,948 11,464 22,653 5,077 1,053 38,576
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.1% 3.1% 6.2% 1.4% 0.3% 10.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
34 14 17 11 11 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,057 1,289
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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