About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 07, 2020 1357 Jan 03, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 07, 2020 282 Jan 02, 2020
SOYBEAN January Jan. 07, 2020 214 Dec 31, 2019

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were slightly lower for the week in Chicago SRW and lower for the week in Chicago HRW and Minneapolis Spring. It was a mixed news week and that led to the lower closes. The US weather improved over the week with additional precipitation in the Great Plains and Midwest. But what really drove prices lower was news on Friday that the US had killed an Iranian general who was called the second most powerful man inside Iran. Ideas are that UD Wheat demand from the Middle East will take a hit. The news hit the market on Friday and some speculative profit taking was seen. Wheat had become overbought, anyway on ideas that China would buy US Wheat to cover potential production problems inside the country. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have strengthened but are now turning more sideways. The Australian problem is very serious as record heat with almost no rain was noted in important growing areas. There is no relief in sight. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts suggest that trends are still up but that further corrective trading lower is possible this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 552, 545, and 539 March, with resistance at 564, 567, and 573 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 471, 467, and 464 March, with resistance at 484, 497, and 510 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 546, 539, and 533 March, and resistance is at 557, 566, and 567 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower for the week. The tone remains firm but some speculators and producers have been selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Prices are profitable for producers at this time. Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further rally attempts. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was strong. The export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1305, 1198, and 1188 March, with resistance at 1332, 1344, and 1356 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats moved a little higher last week. The main driver remains demand or rather the lack of identified demand over the short-term. Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand remains unknown but has been disappointing over the last couple of years given the increase in animal numbers seen in the US. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 288, 283, and 276 March, and resistance is at 293, 295, and 301 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were slightly higher for the week. The news that the US and China had reached agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish. A signing ceremony will be held in the US on January 15 and then new buying from China is expected. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans and those from Brazil and Argentina. Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South America. Many US producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 937, 934, and 923 March, and resistance is at 956, 961, and 965 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 300.00, 298.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3580 March. Support is at 3480, 3440, and 3420 March, with resistance at 3550, 3570, and 3600 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and on news that the Iranian general had been killed. The US-China Phase One trade deal was considered bullish for Canola. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was sharply lower on speculative selling tied to long liquidation. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there, but the tariffs are now gone and reports indicate that demand has sharply increased.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 March, with resistance at 482.00, 485.00, and 490.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3140 March. Support is at 3020, 3000, and 2920 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry except for some rain and snow on Friday and again by the middle of next week. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +47 Mar +170 Mar +104 Mar +50 Jan +12 Mar N/A
February +52 Mar +110 Mar +49 Mar
March +57 Mar +110 Mar +49 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 3
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Jan. 3 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, Jan. 3.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 449.00 -31.00 March 2020 dn 1.10
Track Thunder Bay 485.30 7.00 March 2020 N/A
Track Vancouver 493.30 15.00 March 2020 N/A
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan. 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 782.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 787.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 787.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 762.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 785.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 790.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 790.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 765.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 765.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 670.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,090 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 262.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1030)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 51,410 lots, or 2.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,390 3,390 3,371 3,375 3,379 3,379 0 461 420
Mar-20 3,436 3,455 3,405 3,429 3,419 3,420 1 55 1,198
May-20 3,873 3,911 3,864 3,909 3,879 3,887 8 47,803 79,011
Jul-20 3,926 3,941 3,896 3,941 3,935 3,928 -7 6 23
Sep-20 3,911 3,944 3,902 3,944 3,924 3,926 2 3,070 11,959
Nov-20 3,798 3,800 3,798 3,800 3,799 3,799 0 15 98
Corn
Turnover: 244,076 lots, or 4.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,818 1,818 1,806 1,808 1,826 1,811 -15 120 750
Mar-20 1,871 1,871 1,865 1,869 1,867 1,866 -1 19,843 297,261
May-20 1,918 1,918 1,910 1,913 1,920 1,913 -7 192,497 726,670
Jul-20 1,944 1,945 1,939 1,941 1,948 1,942 -6 297 5,701
Sep-20 1,977 1,977 1,967 1,969 1,975 1,970 -5 30,053 161,942
Nov-20 1,984 1,990 1,981 1,984 1,990 1,984 -6 1,266 1,471
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,374,796 lots, or 37.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,640 2,640 2,602 2,602 2,643 2,609 -34 205 4,612
Mar-20 2,676 2,681 2,650 2,650 2,689 2,664 -25 58,302 283,035
May-20 2,757 2,762 2,728 2,739 2,774 2,744 -30 1,002,411 1,656,826
Jul-20 2,781 2,787 2,758 2,767 2,799 2,777 -22 1,461 3,014
Aug-20 2,813 2,827 2,812 2,814 2,850 2,816 -34 15 89
Sep-20 2,842 2,850 2,818 2,827 2,862 2,832 -30 312,111 1,035,053
Nov-20 2,876 2,876 2,850 2,859 2,887 2,856 -31 216 1,274
Dec-20 2,888 2,895 2,872 2,889 2,900 2,881 -19 75 108
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,886,187 lots, or 11.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,414 6,460 6,394 6,402 6,444 6,418 -26 443 4,704
Feb-20 6,586 6,798 6,530 6,588 6,562 6,674 112 88 268
Mar-20 6,504 6,694 6,504 6,612 6,548 6,590 42 74 409
Apr-20 6,512 6,526 6,460 6,484 6,496 6,500 4 9 21
May-20 6,346 6,426 6,296 6,328 6,370 6,356 -14 1,831,934 825,404
Jun-20 6,248 6,314 6,188 6,188 6,302 6,240 -62 6 17
Jul-20 – – – 6,162 6,162 6,162 0 0 305
Aug-20 – – – 6,092 6,092 6,092 0 0 7
Sep-20 6,038 6,104 5,996 6,016 6,056 6,044 -12 53,619 82,223
Oct-20 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 6,012 6,022 6,012 -10 0 9
Dec-20 6,100 6,106 5,930 5,930 6,012 6,000 -12 14 11
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 503,229 lots, or 34.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,800 6,812 6,724 6,812 6,756 6,800 44 31 1,171
Mar-20 6,818 6,822 6,818 6,822 6,762 6,820 58 3 412
May-20 6,850 6,898 6,796 6,826 6,852 6,848 -4 467,983 644,747
Jul-20 – – – 6,700 6,700 6,700 0 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,662 6,664 6,662 -2 0 0
Sep-20 6,682 6,742 6,648 6,672 6,708 6,696 -12 35,212 131,649
Nov-20 – – – 6,608 6,608 6,608 0 0 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,690 6,700 6,690 -10 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322