About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in range trading and on follow through buying tied to news that China could be in the US in a matter of days to sign the Phase One agreement with the Trump administration. The agreement promises to help move Cotton from the US to China in the short and long-term. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has been trending higher on the daily charts but has done so very slowly.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers on Thursday and Southeast should see mostly dry weather except for some rain on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.81 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 9,033 bales, from 9,127 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 246,200 bales this year and 19,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 15,300 bales this year and 900 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6880, 6730, and 6780 March, with resistance of 6970, 7030, and 7330 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly higher, with only January lower as it enters its delivery period. Overall chart patterns still suggest that the market is in a trading range. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 38% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers through this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 March, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 102.00 March.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jan 2
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
12/14/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/14/2019 12/15/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 285.26 207.30 37.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.25 5.16 21.0%
Total 291.51 212.46 37.2%
Pack
Bulk 6.83 4.12 65.9%
Retail/Institutional 1.13 1.62 -30.2%
Total Pack 7.96 5.74 38.8%
Reprocessed -3.04 -2.96 2.6%
Pack from Fruit 4.93 2.78 77.4%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.07 -0.08 -17.2%
Imports – Foreign 2.78 3.48 -20.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.15 -100.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.36 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.03 0.01 165.3%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 292.16 212.03 37.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.38 6.78 8.8%
Total 299.54 218.81 36.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.17 5.41 -4.4%
Exports 0.00 0.25 -100.0%
Total (Bulk) 5.17 5.66 -8.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.56 1.49 4.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.56 1.49 4.5%
Total Movement 6.73 7.15 -5.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 286.99 206.37 39.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.81 5.29 10.0%
Ending Inventory 292.81 211.66 38.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
14-Dec-19 15-Dec-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 15.66 18.69 -16.2%
Retail/Institutional 13.70 12.74 7.6%
Total Pack 29.36 31.42 -6.6%
Reprocessed -18.69 -20.88 -10.5%
Pack from Fruit 10.67 10.55 1.2%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.38 -0.95 -60.1%
Imports – Foreign 18.59 27.49 -32.4%
Domestic Receipts 1.56 0.36 337.9%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.13 0.04 257.3%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 6.15 0.24 2514.6%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.17 0.19 -8.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 335.13 262.37 27.7%
Retail/Institutional 19.53 18.65 4.7%
Total 354.66 281.02 26.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 44.91 53.12 -15.5%
Domestic 3.23 2.88 12.4%
Exports 48.14 56.00 -14.0%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 13.71 13.37 2.6%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 13.71 13.37 2.6%
Total Movement 61.85 69.37 -10.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 286.99 206.37 39.1%
Retail/Institutional 5.81 5.29 10.0%
Ending Inventory 292.81 211.66 38.3%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets and daily chart trend started to turn down. Funds and other speculators had not been able to pound prices much higher so they became sellers as currency relationships favored selling rather than buying. Ideas are that Brazilian producers are making sales again after the Real dropped against the Dollar. The Brazilian crop is developing well after recent rains but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America and that has hurt exporters ability to offer. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. Peru is dry. The Asian harvest is underway but producers are not selling. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.032 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.18 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms into next week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 117.00 and 100.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 March, and resistance is at 133.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 March. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1460 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: The markets closed lower on what appeared to be speculative selling based on currency relationships. Recent weakness in the Real has encouraged selling of Sugar into the world market even though the prices for Sugar are not all that high. Now the US Dollar has turned weaker and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers and storms later in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1310 and 1270 March. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1270 March, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1370 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 350.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 358.00, 360.00, and 362.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in London and mixed to mostly a little higher in New York yesterday. Reports of political problems in West Africa supported the market and futures mostly ignored the stronger US Dollar. Prices have been cheaper lately based on ideas of very good production potential in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.765 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2560 March. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2550, 2580, and 2600 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 March. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1890 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322