About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 3
For the week ended Dec 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 312.9 20.4 18854.6 17777.7 4705.5 70.3
hrw 107.3 0.0 6908.6 5552.8 1489.4 0.0
srw 11.2 0.4 2092.1 2237.2 560.1 4.5
hrs 86.9 0.0 5293.5 5491.0 1363.1 4.8
white 84.3 0.0 3770.0 4076.7 1123.8 0.0
durum 23.3 20.0 790.4 419.9 169.1 61.0
corn 531.4 8.6 18354.6 31827.6 9979.6 815.6
soybeans 330.3 1.7 29491.6 30981.1 8570.8 180.1
soymeal 94.7 1.5 5538.6 6784.9 2915.6 87.3
soyoil -1.9 0.0 425.7 403.7 154.9 0.5
upland cotton 246.2 19.4 11474.5 10579.0 7549.0 997.5
pima cotton 15.3 0.9 348.6 461.2 181.5 35.3
sorghum 0.4 0.0 1087.3 464.7 569.9 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 58.9 58.3 30.2 0.0
rice 45.9 0.0 2149.9 1825.0 779.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 06, 2020 1503 Jan 02, 2020
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 06, 2020 359 Dec 31, 2019
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 06, 2020 27 Dec 31, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 06, 2020 275 Dec 31, 2019

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed. New highs for the move were posted in all three markets before the buying gave out and prices retreated. World markets remained stronger in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. Russia has less Wheat this year as prices there have increased now for seven weeks in a row. The Ruble has also been stronger. The Australian problem is very serious as record heat with almost no rain was noted in important growing areas. There is no relief in sight. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more sideways movement as futures have rallied a lot so fr and might need a rest.
General Comments:
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 570 March. Support is at 545, 539, and 537 March, with resistance at 567, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 525 March. Support is at 471, 467, and 464 March, with resistance at 497, 510, and 513 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 566 and 579 March. Support is at 553, 546, and 539 March, and resistance is at 567, 570, and 571 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower as some speculative long liquidation hit the pit. There could have been some producer selling as prices are relatively high right now in both the cash market and the futures market, but this was mostly speculators going out and selling recent longs. The weekly charts still display a bullish market, but the trends on the daily charts re mixed and could be turning down. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive. The export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and producers not interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.

Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1305, 1198, and 1188 March, with resistance at 1332, 1344, and 1356 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats also closed higher. It was a great move for Corn as it basically rallied on its own. USDA reported increased use in November to help lead the way, but Corn was higher on mostly speculative buying tied to short covering. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices. It was a thin trade over the holiday.
Overnight News: USDA said that Corn used for industrial purposes totaled 506.7 million bushels, including 456.7 million for ethanol.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 296, 293, and 289 March, and resistance is at 303, 309, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were slightly higher and the products were higher. Soybean Oil led the way once again and rallied on the back of Palm Oil. The US crush was strong, but below the amount crushed in October. Many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. Word most of the last week that a Phase One deal was done and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support the market. President Trump expects to sign the agreement on January 15. China has also agreed to accept one more strain of Soybeans GMO. China joined the US in stating that the agreement is in ready to be signed and that a Chinese delegation would be arriving in the US for a signing ceremony as soon as this week.
Overnight News: USDA said that US crushers used 174.5 million bushels of Soybeans in November.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 962 and 974 March. Support is at 945, 939, and 937 March, and resistance is at 965, 968, and 970 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 303.00, 300.00, and 298.00 March, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3580 March. Support is at 3440, 3420, and 3380 March, with resistance at 3570, 3600, and 3660 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in range trading. Ideas are that Canola can finally break out of its range and trade to higher prices now. The US-China Phase One trade deal was considered bullish for Canola as was the weakness in the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar yesterday. Demand from crushers is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower in holiday market trading. It looks like the speculators were taking some profits on Friday. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there. Demand has also been weaker in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 467.00 March, with resistance at 481.00, 492.00, and 485.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3140 March. Support is at 3020, 2920, and 2880 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry except for some rain and snow on Friday and again by the middle of next week. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +48 Mar +170 Mar +104 Mar +62 Jan +12 Mar N/A
February +57 Mar +110 Mar +48 Mar
March +58 Mar +110 Mar +53 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 2
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Jan .2 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, Jan. 2.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 439.10 -29.80 Jan 2020 dn 1.10
Track Thunder Bay N/A N/A N/A N/A
Track Vancouver N/A N/A N/A N/A
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan. 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 787.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 792.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 792.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 772.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 790.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 795.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 795.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 775.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 772.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 670.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,120 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 265.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1002)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 44,336 lots, or 1.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,375 3,380 3,375 3,380 3,326 3,379 53 66 361
Mar-20 3,404 3,428 3,404 3,425 3,375 3,419 44 13 1,190
May-20 3,861 3,893 3,860 3,877 3,864 3,879 15 41,752 78,390
Jul-20 3,935 3,935 3,935 3,935 3,930 3,935 5 1 27
Sep-20 3,918 3,939 3,911 3,916 3,913 3,924 11 2,493 12,344
Nov-20 3,799 3,800 3,799 3,799 3,795 3,799 4 11 86
Corn
Turnover: 305,683 lots, or 5.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,830 1,830 1,818 1,829 1,819 1,826 7 373 1,106
Mar-20 1,865 1,873 1,863 1,872 1,863 1,867 4 47,396 298,672
May-20 1,920 1,925 1,916 1,918 1,915 1,920 5 213,786 750,386
Jul-20 1,943 1,952 1,942 1,947 1,941 1,948 7 1,620 5,633
Sep-20 1,971 1,981 1,968 1,976 1,966 1,975 9 41,217 162,320
Nov-20 1,983 1,994 1,980 1,988 1,979 1,990 11 1,291 1,540
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,161,083 lots, or 32.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,638 2,656 2,633 2,653 2,638 2,643 5 1,786 4,657
Mar-20 2,685 2,703 2,677 2,679 2,689 2,689 0 65,580 281,112
May-20 2,772 2,785 2,760 2,761 2,774 2,774 0 851,662 1,647,025
Jul-20 2,797 2,808 2,784 2,790 2,796 2,799 3 677 2,786
Aug-20 2,843 2,860 2,843 2,849 2,848 2,850 2 16 90
Sep-20 2,865 2,872 2,847 2,847 2,870 2,862 -8 241,269 1,008,209
Nov-20 2,890 2,899 2,876 2,876 2,896 2,887 -9 74 1,315
Dec-20 2,905 2,913 2,889 2,889 2,901 2,900 -1 19 112
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,071,785 lots, or 13.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,454 6,470 6,402 6,404 6,482 6,444 -38 985 4,712
Feb-20 6,386 6,598 6,386 6,566 6,508 6,562 54 63 281
Mar-20 6,556 6,642 6,502 6,516 6,492 6,548 56 55 408
Apr-20 6,546 6,546 6,466 6,486 6,412 6,496 84 5 17
May-20 6,378 6,418 6,306 6,314 6,316 6,370 54 2,002,282 824,520
Jun-20 6,358 6,358 6,258 6,290 6,206 6,302 96 3 14
Jul-20 – – – 6,162 6,162 6,162 0 0 305
Aug-20 – – – 6,092 6,092 6,092 0 0 7
Sep-20 6,062 6,100 5,996 6,012 6,006 6,056 50 68,388 80,665
Oct-20 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 6,022 5,974 6,022 48 0 9
Dec-20 6,086 6,086 5,938 5,938 5,992 6,012 20 4 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 683,963 lots, or 46.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 – – – 6,756 6,658 6,756 98 1,128 2,190
Mar-20 6,732 6,904 6,550 6,774 6,744 6,762 18 22 414
May-20 6,820 6,900 6,802 6,812 6,768 6,852 84 638,026 653,413
Jul-20 – – – 6,700 6,700 6,700 0 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,664 6,584 6,664 80 0 0
Sep-20 6,666 6,756 6,662 6,668 6,636 6,708 72 44,787 128,799
Nov-20 – – – 6,608 6,538 6,608 70 0 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,700 6,630 6,700 70 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322