Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in range trading and despite news that China could be in the US in a matter of days to sign the Phase One agreement with the T8rump administration. The agreement promises to help move Cotton from the US to China in the short and long-term. China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has been trending higher on the daily charts but has done so very slowly.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers on Thursday and Southeast should see mostly dry weather except for some rain on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 65.13 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 9,127 bales, from 9,221 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6880, 6730, and 6780 March, with resistance of 6970, 7030, and 7330 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower, with some strength seen in the January contract that goes into delivery on Thursday. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers through this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 March, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 102.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in both markets. Funds were on both sides of the market and the commercials were mostly absent. The Brazilian crop is developing well after recent rains but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America and that has hurt exporters ability to offer. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras. Peru is dry. The Asian harvest is underway but producers are not selling. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.032 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.97 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms into next week with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 March, and resistance is at 135.00, 141.00 and 144.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1340 and 1260 March. Support is at 1360, 1330, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1460 March.
General Comments: The markets closed mostly a little lower. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers and storms later in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1360, 1370, and 1380 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 359.00, 355.00, and 352.00 March, and resistance is at 363.00, 366.00, and 369.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in both markets as the harvest activities continue in West Africa. Reports of political problems in West Africa supported the market. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in southern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.726 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2560 March. Support is at 2470, 2430, and 2380 March, with resistance at 2550, 2580, and 2600 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 March. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, with resistance at 1840, 1860, and 1890 March.