About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
5 YR TREASURY NOTE December Jan. 03, 2020 434 Dec 09, 2019
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 03, 2020 1485 Dec 31, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan. 03, 2020 605 Dec 30, 2019
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 03, 2020 78 Dec 30, 2019
SOYBEAN January Jan. 03, 2020 597 Dec 30, 2019

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little higher. New highs for the move were posted in Chicago HRW and Minneapolis Spring nearby contracts. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. In addition, Russia has less Wheat this year as prices there have increased now for seven weeks in a row. The Ruble has also been stronger. The Australian problem is very serious as record heat with almost no rain was noted in important growing areas. There is no relief in sight. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up moves in prices this week.
General Comments:
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light precipitation late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 570 March. Support is at 545, 539, and 537 March, with resistance at 567, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 525 March. Support is at 471, 467, and 464 March, with resistance at 490, 496, and 510 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 566 and 579 March. Support is at 553, 546, and 539 March, and resistance is at 563, 567, and 570 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly higher as more speculative buying hit the pit. There could have been some producer selling as prices are relatively high right now in both the cash market and the futures market. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive. The export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and producers not interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1331 and 1350 March. Support is at 1316, 1312, and 1305 March, with resistance at 1332, 1344, and 1356 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats closed mixed in consolidation trading. The news of the day did not seem to affect feedgrains very much although the signing of the accord with China will bring renewed demand for feed one way or another. It could be domestic, it could be export, or a combination of the two. China has also said that it will permit the import of another GMO Corn strain. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices. It was a thin trade over the holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 284, 283, and 276 March, and resistance is at 293, 295, and 297 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were slightly higher and Soybean Oil was sharply lower and Soybean Meal was higher. Many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. The market was also affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. Word most of the week that a Phase One deal was done and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support the market. China has also agreed to accept one more strain of Soybeans GMO. China joined the US in stating that the agreement is in ready to be signed and that a Chinese delegation would be arriving in the US for a signing ceremony as soon as this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 959, 962, and 974 March. Support is at 945, 939, and 937 March, and resistance is at 958, 965, and 968 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 298.00, 297.00, and 291.00 March. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 298.00 March, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00, and 315.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3430, 3380, and 3360 March, with resistance at 3550, 3600, and 3660 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in range trading. The US-China Phase One trade deal was considered bullish for Canola as well. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but the daily chart price trends are mostly up. Demand from crushers is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower in holiday market trading. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there. Demand has also been weaker in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 470.00, and 467.00 March, with resistance at 481.00, 492.00, and 485.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3140 March. Support is at 3020, 2920, and 2880 March, with resistance at 3150, 3180, and 3210 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry except for some rain and snow on Friday and again by the middle of next week. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January +48 Mar +165 Mar +105 Mar +61 Jan +12 Mar N/A
February +57 Mar +110 Mar +47 Mar
March +558 Mar +110 Mar +50 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 27
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Dec. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, December 27.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 439.00 -29.70 Jan 2020 up 1.20
Track Thunder Bay 481.20 7.00 Jan 2020 dn 3.80
Track Vancouver 489.20 15.00 Jan 2020 dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan. 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 785.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 787.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 787.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 770.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 787.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 772.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 777.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 670.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,110 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 266.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0870)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 33,138 lots, or 1.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,266 3,355 3,266 3,346 3,352 3,326 -26 2,238 1,447
Mar-20 3,360 3,404 3,357 3,404 3,406 3,375 -31 24 1,188
May-20 3,856 3,876 3,847 3,861 3,863 3,864 1 29,163 77,255
Jul-20 – – – 3,930 3,930 3,930 0 0 28
Sep-20 3,911 3,922 3,897 3,911 3,913 3,913 0 1,713 12,213
Nov-20 – – – 3,795 3,795 3,795 0 0 79
Corn
Turnover: 235,159 lots, or 4.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,800 1,830 1,800 1,830 1,814 1,819 5 1,341 1,279
Mar-20 1,863 1,868 1,861 1,865 1,863 1,863 0 40,878 300,005
May-20 1,911 1,920 1,910 1,918 1,911 1,915 4 171,359 745,137
Jul-20 1,939 1,946 1,938 1,946 1,939 1,941 2 180 4,581
Sep-20 1,963 1,971 1,962 1,969 1,964 1,966 2 21,300 154,129
Nov-20 1,976 1,983 1,976 1,981 1,976 1,979 3 101 1,444
Soymeal
Turnover: 912,340 lots, or 25.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,488 2,656 2,488 2,647 2,646 2,638 -8 4,890 6,440
Mar-20 2,688 2,699 2,682 2,686 2,693 2,689 -4 50,148 280,253
May-20 2,780 2,786 2,766 2,771 2,773 2,774 1 631,920 1,675,406
Jul-20 2,807 2,811 2,790 2,795 2,801 2,796 -5 1,540 2,862
Aug-20 2,853 2,853 2,845 2,846 2,842 2,848 6 8 89
Sep-20 2,870 2,877 2,862 2,866 2,861 2,870 9 222,734 986,519
Nov-20 2,885 2,902 2,885 2,894 2,883 2,896 13 1,079 1,295
Dec-20 2,911 2,911 2,898 2,901 2,914 2,901 -13 21 99
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,075,242 lots, or 67.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,870 6,870 6,420 6,450 6,484 6,482 -2 3,670 5,573
Feb-20 6,542 6,542 6,456 6,512 6,528 6,508 -20 15 283
Mar-20 6,406 6,516 6,406 6,514 6,500 6,492 -8 97 415
Apr-20 6,410 6,440 6,386 6,440 6,440 6,412 -28 5 16
May-20 6,278 6,356 6,268 6,352 6,352 6,316 -36 1,034,459 835,350
Jun-20 6,232 6,232 6,186 6,186 6,240 6,206 -34 3 15
Jul-20 6,174 6,174 6,150 6,150 6,188 6,162 -26 2 305
Aug-20 – – – 6,092 6,116 6,092 -24 0 7
Sep-20 5,976 6,052 5,952 6,042 6,024 6,006 -18 36,991 74,189
Oct-20 – – – 6,018 6,018 6,018 0 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 5,974 5,974 5,974 0 0 9
Dec-20 – – – 5,992 5,992 5,992 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 357,403 lots, or 24.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 7,140 7,140 6,440 6,724 6,736 6,658 -78 560 3,327
Mar-20 – – – 6,744 6,744 6,744 0 0 417
May-20 6,722 6,804 6,712 6,800 6,808 6,768 -40 324,793 650,936
Jul-20 – – – 6,700 6,684 6,700 16 0 416
Aug-20 – – – 6,584 6,622 6,584 -38 0 0
Sep-20 6,602 6,660 6,574 6,656 6,668 6,636 -32 32,050 128,335
Nov-20 – – – 6,538 6,568 6,538 -30 0 211
Dec-20 – – – 6,630 6,630 6,630 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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