About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Monday, December 30, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
jslsa@comcast.net

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week. China has also been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers this weekend and will be dry next week and Southeast should see mostly dry weather except for some rain on Sunday. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions after rain today. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.46 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,699 bales, from 11,699 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6780, 6700, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6930, 7030, and 7330 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower for the week. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions through this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 January, with resistance at 99.00, 100.00, and 102.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher for the week in New York and lower in London. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.031 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 March, and resistance is at 135.00, 141.00 and 144.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1290, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/24/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
109,576 65,573 51,892 11,003 15,353 911
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 59.8% 47.4% 10.0% 14.0% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 52 40 12 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,984 18,005 6,335 3,039 2,388 10,892
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 16.4% 5.8% 2.8% 2.2% 9.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 25 17 15 10 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,840 3,800
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 3.5%

SUGAR
General Comments: The markets closed unchanged in New York and a little higher in London. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers until dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 355.00, 352.00, and 350.00 March, and resistance is at 363.00, 366.00, and 369.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/24/2019
Reportable Positions
=============================================================================== Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
79,679 30,294 53,953 10,829 2,332 3,119
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 38.0% 67.7% 13.6% 2.9% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
124 45 39 11 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,575 7,708 4,231 3,551 2,001 3,579
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.3% 9.7% 5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 4.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 10 12 7 8 12
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,500 2,755
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.9% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York with London closed. The market still acts weak as the next main crop harvest is a reality in West Africa. However, futures have become more stable in the last week or so. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.698 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2560 March. Support is at 2430, 2380, and 2280 March, with resistance at 2510, 2550, and 2580 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1880 March. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 March, with resistance at 1830, 1860, and 1890 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/24/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
365,515 181,195 264,315 54,146 12,247 13,406
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 49.6% 72.3% 14.8% 3.4% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
150 48 48 15 4 9
Reportable Positions
==============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
47,759 10,200 23,845 4,010 1,385 38,580
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.1% 2.8% 6.5% 1.1% 0.4% 10.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
31 14 14 12 11 27
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,574 1,538
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.7% 0.4%

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
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