About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT:
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher for the week and built on the gains from the previous week. World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for Australia and the new tax regime for Argentina. In addition, it seems that Russia has less Wheat this year. The Australian problem is very serious as record heat with almost no rain was noted in important growing areas. There is no relief in sight. World prices have been stronger in the last couple of weeks. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.
General Comments:
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week and the weekend. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible in northern areas tomorrow and in all areas late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the middle of this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 561 and 570 March. Support is at 545, 537, and 534 March, with resistance at 567, 573, and 576 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 525 March. Support is at 467, 464, and 456 March, with resistance at 482, 485, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 566 and 579 March. Support is at 546, 539, and 533 March, and resistance is at 558, 563, and 567 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher for the week. The weekly charts still display a bullish market. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was strong. The export sales pace in general has been very good. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1292, 1283, and 1280 January, with resistance at 1312, 1324, and 1336 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats moved a little lower. There is little Corn available to the domestic cash market. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there is very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices. It was a thin trade over the holiday.
Overnight News: Ethanol production was 1.083 million barrels per day this week, from .064 million last week and 1.042 million last year. Stocks were 21.5 million barrels, from 21.8 million last week and 23.1 million last year. Ethanol production used 106.3 million bushels of Corn this week, from 104.4 million last week and 103.9 million last year. Year to date corn use is now 1.583 million bushels, down 80 million bushels from last year. Taiwan bought 65,00-0 tons of Argentine Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 398 and 411 March. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 283, 276, and 273 March, and resistance is at 293, 295, and 297 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower. The rally was led higher by Soybean Oil which reacted to the breakout higher in Palm Oil yesterday. Many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic demand was strong in the NOPA data. The market was also affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. Word most of the week that a Phase One deal was done and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support futures for much of the week. China joined the US in stating that the agreement is in front of the lawyers and the translators for final review and analysis.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 941 and 952 January. Support is at 929, 921, and 917 January, and resistance is at 942, 947, and 953 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 293.00 and 287.00 January. Support is at 293.00, 290.00, and 287.00 January, and resistance is at 298.00, 300.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3550 and 3600 January. Support is at 3390, 3350, and 3320 January, with resistance at 3490, 3520, and 3550 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but the daily chart price trends are mostly up. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was higher in holiday market trading. The rally came on the back of ideas that December production will drop 15% from the previous month. Such production would be bullish given the demand potential for Palm Oil. Outside market strength also helped Palm Oil futures. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there. Demand has also been weaker in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 463.00, 461.00, and 459.00 January, with resistance at 469.00, 471.00, and 473.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3140 March. Support is at 3020, 2920, and 2880 March, with resistance at 3100, 3120, and 3150 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +42 Mar +165 Mar +100 Mar +59 Jan +12 Jan N/A
January +48 Mar +105 Mar +56 Jan
February +57 Mar +110 Mar +33 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 27
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Dec. 27 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Thursday, December 27.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 439.00 -29.70 Jan 2020 up 1.20
Track Thunder Bay 481.20 7.00 Jan 2020 dn 3.80
Track Vancouver 489.20 15.00 Jan 2020 dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT on Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Jan 782.50 +17.50
Feb 787.50 +20.00
Mar 787.50 +20.00
Apr/May/Jun 770.50 +20.50
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Jan 785.00 +17.50
Feb 790.00 +20.00
Mar 790.00 +20.00
Apr/May/Jun 772.50 +20.00
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Jan 775.00 +15.00
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Jan 665.00 +10.00
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change
Jan 3,100 +60.00
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change
Jan 270.00 +7.00
($1=MYR4.1275)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 90,430 lots, or 3.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,362 3,368 3,345 3,360 3,347 3,357 10 9,218 20,152
Mar-20 3,406 3,420 3,405 3,413 3,405 3,412 7 54 2,254
May-20 3,815 3,850 3,815 3,841 3,828 3,835 7 78,754 153,570
Jul-20 – – – 3,885 3,871 3,885 14 0 58
Sep-20 3,876 3,897 3,873 3,890 3,880 3,886 6 2,394 22,976
Nov-20 3,781 3,791 3,773 3,791 3,771 3,781 10 10 142
Corn
Turnover: 560,608 lots, or 10.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,830 1,835 1,827 1,831 1,836 1,831 -5 12,916 31,658
Mar-20 1,867 1,871 1,861 1,866 1,869 1,866 -3 56,044 587,540
May-20 1,911 1,919 1,909 1,915 1,916 1,913 -3 431,042 1,439,388
Jul-20 1,938 1,944 1,937 1,941 1,941 1,939 -2 1,076 9,166
Sep-20 1,963 1,970 1,960 1,965 1,968 1,965 -3 56,770 290,468
Nov-20 1,972 1,983 1,972 1,978 1,981 1,978 -3 2,760 3,152
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,723,464 lots, or 10.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,673 2,678 2,644 2,669 2,673 2,665 -8 32,396 38,890
Mar-20 2,676 2,703 2,660 2,703 2,672 2,681 9 169,322 521,758
May-20 2,737 2,776 2,733 2,775 2,737 2,755 18 2,871,306 3,362,554
Jul-20 2,766 2,802 2,760 2,802 2,763 2,773 10 558 3,364
Aug-20 2,804 2,818 2,804 2,818 2,809 2,813 4 8 178
Sep-20 2,815 2,860 2,812 2,858 2,816 2,836 20 649,072 1,790,374
Nov-20 2,836 2,882 2,836 2,871 2,837 2,855 18 484 470
Dec-20 2,851 2,910 2,851 2,898 2,841 2,873 32 318 156
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,954,536 lots, or 18.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,382 6,432 6,350 6,410 6,304 6,382 78 32,474 49,130
Feb-20 6,304 6,398 6,242 6,396 6,248 6,348 100 100 560
Mar-20 6,444 6,444 6,394 6,440 6,330 6,416 86 152 690
Apr-20 6,286 6,330 6,286 6,330 6,268 6,308 40 4 12
May-20 6,326 6,326 6,270 6,312 6,228 6,298 70 2,833,334 1,638,964
Jun-20 6,280 6,280 6,200 6,200 6,102 6,240 138 4 32
Jul-20 – – – 6,220 6,084 6,220 136 0 612
Aug-20 – – – 6,116 5,982 6,116 134 0 14
Sep-20 6,000 6,000 5,950 5,978 5,920 5,974 54 88,460 131,650
Oct-20 – – – 5,964 5,944 5,964 20 0 8
Nov-20 5,948 5,948 5,912 5,912 5,896 5,926 30 6 18
Dec-20 6,068 6,068 6,068 6,068 5,914 6,068 154 2 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,029,868 lots, or 69.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,666 6,718 6,652 6,682 6,626 6,674 48 4,776 12,660
Mar-20 6,816 6,816 6,698 6,808 6,736 6,786 50 16 888
May-20 6,774 6,792 6,730 6,764 6,714 6,760 46 943,040 1,323,102
Jul-20 – – – 6,684 6,684 6,684 0 0 832
Aug-20 – – – 6,576 6,532 6,576 44 0 0
Sep-20 6,672 6,674 6,616 6,648 6,614 6,644 30 82,034 243,578
Nov-20 6,536 6,536 6,536 6,536 6,542 6,536 -6 2 422
Dec-20 – – – 6,608 6,614 6,608 -6 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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