Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was mixed yesterday as nearby months closed unchanged to higher and deferred months closed a little lower. The market is waiting for new about the Chinese trade agreement and when it could be in force. China joined the US in stating that the agreement is with the lawyers and the translators now and was moving along well. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers this weekend and will be dry next week and Southeast should see mostly dry weather except for some rain on Sunday. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions after rain today. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,699 bales, from 11,699 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6780, 6700, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6930, 7030, and 7330 March.
General Comments: FCOJ was a little lower yesterday and the potential move higher came to a halt. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish but now are part of the market. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions through this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and scattered showers next week and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 91.00 January, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in New York as London was closed. The market has entered into a correction of the big rally that ended about a week ago. However, the price positive fundamentals are still around and are not going away for the next couple of months. The problem for the bulls is not that the current situation is not bullish, but that the bull needs news each day to keep the rally going. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 2.030 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 117.00 and 104.00 March. Support is at 124.00, 121.00, and 119.00 March, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1280 January. Support is at 1290, 1270, and 1230 January, and resistance is at 1350, 1400, and 1420 January.
General Comments: New York closed a little higher yesterday with London closed. Futures mostly remain in a trading range but have had trouble lately trying to rally despite ideas of lower production in India and Thailand and despite reduced exports from Brazil. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales. Thailand has reported smaller crops due to reduced planted area and lower prices.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers until dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 360.00, 363.00, and 366.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York with London closed. The market still acts weak as the next main crop harvest is a reality in West Africa. However, futures have become more stable in the last week or so. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.687 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2320 March. Support is at 2380, 2280, and 2240 March, with resistance at 2450, 2510, and 2550 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1730 and 1690 March. Support is at 1740, 1730, and 1710 March, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 March.