About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 27
For the week ended Dec 19, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 715.0 41.0 18541.7 17184.7 4731.9 49.9
hrw 225.9 0.0 6801.3 5244.9 1489.2 0.0
srw 54.5 0.0 2081.0 2212.6 557.7 4.2
hrs 200.4 0.0 5206.6 5356.5 1385.5 4.8
white 167.9 0.0 3685.8 3952.4 1103.9 0.0
durum 66.4 41.0 767.1 418.4 195.6 41.0
corn 624.8 1.4 17823.2 31324.5 9895.6 807.0
soybeans 736.2 11.1 29161.2 29929.7 9316.9 178.4
soymeal 138.0 0.0 5443.9 6744.3 3022.0 85.8
soyoil 37.4 0.0 427.6 387.7 186.7 0.5
upland cotton 135.1 -9.3 11228.2 10350.8 7527.3 978.0
pima cotton 19.3 0.0 333.3 452.9 172.5 34.4
sorghum 43.6 0.0 1086.9 455.7 593.5 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 58.9 57.6 31.5 0.0
rice 62.3 0.0 2104.1 1758.5 762.5 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on ideas that China could become a major buyer of US Wheat. The potential demand has been a real shot in the arm for the markets and all three markets have shown a tendency to work higher over time. The rally came on the back of higher prices in Russia due to shorter supplies there. SRW is finding some support on reduced production but also faces poor demand. Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand. World prices have been weaker in the last couple of weeks and this was seen by the Egyptian tender where even the EU could not compete with Russia and eastern Europe. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions this week and some light and mixed precipitation at the end of the week and the weekend. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible in northern areas tomorrow and in all areas late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the middle of this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 553, 561, and 570 March. Support is at 545, 537, and 534 March, with resistance at 557, 567, and 573 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 459, 471, and 478 March. Support is at 467, 464, and 456 March, with resistance at 482, 485, and 490 March. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 566 and 579 March. Support is at 543, 541, and 533 March, and resistance is at 549, 551, and 558 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower again yesterday on what was called producer selling and speculative selling. The export sales report was moderately strong but good for the time of the year as most of the market has shut down for the holidays. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive as the western nations have been buying. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered. Brazil prices are sharply higher and this is supporting Chicago.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1280, 1272, and 1263 January, with resistance at 1296, 1312, and 1324 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher on fund buying. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding and speculators have been selling. They have been forced to cover these shorts due to the Chinese demand potential but have been selling as well in the last couple of days. Farmers are still holding onto the vast majority of their supplies although they did sell some before the Christmas holiday. There is still very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn. The charts show a new up move has started and the move could last until 395 or 400 March.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 390, 392, and 393 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 283, 276, and 273 March, and resistance is at 290, 293, and 297 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower. The rally was led higher by Soybean Oil which reacted to the breakout higher in Palm Oil yesterday. Many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic demand was strong in the NOPA data. The market was also affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. Word most of the week that a Phase One deal was done and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support futures for much of the week. China joined the US in stating that the agreement is in front of the lawyers and the translators for final review and analysis.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 941 and 952 January. Support is at 929, 921, and 917 January, and resistance is at 942, 947, and 953 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 297.00, 293.00, and 290.00 January, and resistance is at 300.00, 304.00, and 306.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3470, 3550, and 3600 January. Support is at 3390, 3350, and 3320 January, with resistance at 3460, 3490, and 3520 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but the daily chart price trends are mostly up. Demand from crusher is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was a little higher in holiday market trading. The rally came on the back of ideas that December production will drop 15% from the previous month. Such production would be bullish given the demand potential for Palm Oil. Demand has been a problem in India due to government tariffs there. Demand has also been weaker in Europe.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 January. Support is at 464.00, 463.00, and 461.00 January, with resistance at 469.00, 471.00, and 473.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3030 and 3140 March. Support is at 2920, 2880, and 2850 March, with resistance at 3030, 3060, and 3090 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +42 mr +165 Mar +100 Mar +6` Jan +12 Jan N/A
January +46 MR +105 Mar +58 Jan
February +57 Mar +100 Mar +54 mR
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 23
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Dec. 23 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, Dec. 23.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 438.50 -29.80 Jan 2020 up 0.40
Track Thunder Bay 483.80 7.00 Jan 2020 dn 0.70
Track Vancouver 491.80 16.00 Jan 2020 dn 0.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 765.00 +24.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 767.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 767.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 750.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 767.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 770.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 770.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 752.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 760.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 655.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,040 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 263.00 +13.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1250)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,086 lots, or 4.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,354 3,362 3,335 3,347 3,346 3,347 1 6,402 23,714
Mar-20 3,395 3,417 3,390 3,390 3,397 3,405 8 88 2,220
May-20 3,820 3,852 3,809 3,831 3,819 3,828 9 106,354 152,552
Jul-20 – – – 3,871 3,870 3,871 1 0 58
Sep-20 3,865 3,900 3,859 3,883 3,867 3,880 13 3,242 22,808
Nov-20 – – – 3,771 3,771 3,771 0 0 140
Corn
Turnover: 735,346 lots, or 14.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,836 1,840 1,832 1,833 1,834 1,836 2 9,708 35,066
Mar-20 1,866 1,876 1,863 1,865 1,863 1,869 6 101,132 594,086
May-20 1,916 1,922 1,911 1,913 1,911 1,916 5 532,576 1,440,838
Jul-20 1,942 1,946 1,937 1,938 1,937 1,941 4 1,612 9,318
Sep-20 1,965 1,974 1,961 1,962 1,959 1,968 9 81,586 287,138
Nov-20 1,971 1,987 1,971 1,974 1,970 1,981 11 8,732 4,202
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,462,112 lots, or 40.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,673 2,688 2,662 2,667 2,683 2,673 -10 48,318 63,420
Mar-20 2,663 2,678 2,663 2,676 2,662 2,672 10 84,922 503,582
May-20 2,737 2,743 2,731 2,735 2,734 2,737 3 1,053,736 3,304,670
Jul-20 2,765 2,767 2,760 2,760 2,760 2,763 3 60 3,078
Aug-20 2,810 2,816 2,792 2,799 2,785 2,809 24 98 180
Sep-20 2,812 2,822 2,811 2,814 2,812 2,816 4 274,840 1,713,648
Nov-20 2,835 2,840 2,833 2,836 2,831 2,837 6 56 376
Dec-20 2,844 2,845 2,835 2,843 2,837 2,841 4 82 138
Palm Oil
Turnover: 4,681,850 lots, or 29.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,222 6,394 6,202 6,392 6,156 6,304 148 85,816 62,782
Feb-20 6,278 6,342 6,164 6,332 6,112 6,248 136 50 516
Mar-20 6,248 6,432 6,238 6,432 6,186 6,330 144 400 680
Apr-20 – – – 6,268 6,078 6,268 190 0 12
May-20 6,168 6,306 6,154 6,302 6,064 6,228 164 4,474,684 1,610,860
Jun-20 6,098 6,186 6,072 6,148 5,968 6,102 134 14 30
Jul-20 6,054 6,100 6,054 6,090 5,998 6,084 86 12 612
Aug-20 5,982 5,982 5,982 5,982 5,850 5,982 132 2 14
Sep-20 5,832 5,978 5,832 5,976 5,770 5,920 150 120,840 129,768
Oct-20 5,860 5,990 5,860 5,986 5,764 5,944 180 14 8
Nov-20 5,900 5,900 5,880 5,900 5,674 5,896 222 16 16
Dec-20 5,914 5,914 5,914 5,914 5,756 5,914 158 2 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,532,950 lots, or 10.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,570 6,694 6,560 6,678 6,522 6,626 104 10,186 15,608
Mar-20 6,740 6,750 6,722 6,722 6,628 6,736 108 10 898
May-20 6,648 6,780 6,646 6,768 6,604 6,714 110 1,392,892 1,311,608
Jul-20 – – – 6,684 6,576 6,684 108 0 832
Aug-20 – – – 6,532 6,522 6,532 10 0 0
Sep-20 6,546 6,662 6,546 6,646 6,510 6,614 104 129,860 241,990
Nov-20 6,542 6,542 6,542 6,542 6,406 6,542 136 2 420
Dec-20 – – – 6,614 6,478 6,614 136 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322