About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

JAN BEANS

 

After a near-vertical 70 cent up move from early December, Jan Beans are finally correcting their overbought condition with a 10-12 cent correction today! The mkt sniffed out the phase one trade agreement a few weeks before it became reality – and has surged higher off the positive trade news despite benign Brazilian weather & a record crop forecast.

 

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  1. EXPORTS – Fri Sales – 747,000 (700-1,500) & Mon Inspections – 1,083,866
  2. US/CHINA PHASE ONE TRADE DEAL – many thought it would never happen but Trump obviously needed it politically & China needed it economically So it made sense! Finally, the mkt is holding early gains & actually increasing them – in a “melt-up” type of mkt action!
  3. JAN CROP REPORT – final #’s will be issued on Friday Jan 10 – & will update the November #’s – at 3.550 BB & 46.9 BU/AC
  4. SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER – Brazil is on pace for a record crop – particularly in light of the very benign rainfalls that country has had
  5. PRODUCER SELLING – no producers are selling at these price levels and the mkt will have to rally if it wants grain
  6. BIG SHORT OPEN INTEREST – even though a lot of shorts have already covered there are still many that haven’t
  7. THE US DOLLAR – is down 50 points today & is sitting on 2-week lows – whereas the Brazilian Real is on a 7-week high – very favorable for exports
  8. HISTORICALLY CHEAP – many traders eschew supply/demand fundamentals & only look at where the mkt is on historical charts buying or selling only the bottom or top 10%

Just over 10 year lows, the “down potential” is very small – leaving sideways-to-up! As a trader/analyst, that scenario is seems very receptive to a call strategy!

MAR CORN

 

They say “a rising tide floats all boats” and indeed that has been the case for Mar Corn – up 20 cents while Mar Beans were up 70 cents Mar Wht – 45 cents since the phase one trade deal was agreed to!  Rain in Argentina has put  the cap on rallies lately – as the mkt anxiously awaits the WADSE REPORT on Jan 10 & the formal signing of the US/China trade – expected in Mid-Jan!  It’s hard to imagine further down from here – as we’re already sitting on 10 year lows!!

 

MAR WHT

 

Mar Wht has rocketed up 20 cents in the past two trading sessions (540-560) as rumors of Chinese Wht Purchases being part of the US/China Trade Deal – bubbled to the surface!  Also underpinning the mkt is Russia’s poor wht crop!  Finally the US Dollar’s 200 point plummet in the past week implies a big up-tick foreign exports!!

 

FEB CAT

 

 

The charts look great & Feb Cat are at an unseasonable $7-8 premium to cash – But the recent Cattle-On-Feed reports portend a cautionary tale as placements have continuously been over the previous year – and those #’s will eventually come home to roost! Meanwhile, the current mkt is feeding off stellar demand – as the DJI scores new all-time highs almost every day!

 

FEB HOGS

 

 

Feb Hogs appear to have bottomed but they sure are taking their sweet time rallying – given all the positive news – first the trade deal has been agreed on – which should translate into big pork exports to China & second – the production seems to have peaked – meaning   less supplies down the road! We’ve been waiting a long time for the US/China Pork connection & it finally seems to be coming to fruition! Finally,the Dec pig crop reflected  3% more all hogs – but exactly within trade expectations – so the mkt took it well!

 

 

141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920  Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (855) 264-6673 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Orders must be entered via direct verbal communication with a representative of our firm. We cannot be held responsible for orders left in any other manner.  PAST RESULTS ARE NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. Member NIBA, NFA.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The PRICE Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

To SUBSCRIBE to the AGMASTER please go to http://bit.ly/xIGR6x.

To Unsubscribe from the AGMASTER please send an email to offers@pricegroup.com.

 

View the AGMASTER Archives at http://blog.pricegroup.com/tag/agmaster.

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337        
Social Media Auto Publish Powered By : XYZScripts.com