About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday as the demand both now and in the future looks to be much improved. The market got some good news on Thursday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales. China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.15 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 11,699 bales, from 12,550 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6780, 6700, and 6620 March, with resistance of 6870, 6880, and 6920 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday in the January contract, but a little lower in the other months. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range and that prices are now ready to test the upper end of the range. USDA showed strong production last month at more than 77 million boxes of Oranges from Florida and demand remains weaker. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish but now are part of the market. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 100.00 and 102.00 January. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 102.00, 104.00, and 107.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday in New York and lower in London. The market has entered into a correction of the big rally that ended about a week ago. However, the price positive fundamentals are still around. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.028 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 117.00 and 104.00 March. Support is at 124.00, 121.00, and 119.00 March, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1280 January. Support is at 1290, 1270, and 1230 January, and resistance is at 1350, 1400, and 1420 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed a little lower yesterday. Futures mostly remain in a trading range but have had trouble lately trying to rally despite ideas of lower production in India and Thailand. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well. Thailand has reported smaller crops due to reduced planted area and lower prices.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers until dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 360.00, 363.00, and 366.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in London and mixed in New York. The market acts weak as the next main crop harvest is a reality in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. Drier weather is now more important due to harvest activities. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.702 million bags. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 972,000 tons of Cocoa, up 1.5% from the same time last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2320 March. Support is at 2380, 2280, and 2240 March, with resistance at 2440, 2510, and 2550 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1730 and 1690 March. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1690 March, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322