About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week. The market got some good news on Thursday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales. China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see showers today and then drier weather. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 12,550 bales, from 13,068 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6700, 6620, and 6600 March, with resistance of 6870, 6880, and 6920 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 242,834
: Positions :
: 29,219 33,177 57,381 52,739 121,993 87,184 18,398 226,522 230,949: 16,311 11,885
: Changes from: December 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: 13,178) :
: -15 -8,361 9,317 2,301 13,107 73 -504 11,677 13,559: 1,501 -381
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 13.7 23.6 21.7 50.2 35.9 7.6 93.3 5.1: 6.7 4.9
: Total Traders: 311 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 89 91 51 61 50 28 238 230:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week. Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range and that prices are now ready to test the upper end of the range. USDA showed strong production last month at more than 77 million boxes of Oranges from Florida and demand remains weaker. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 37% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 100.00 and 102.00 January. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 104.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 25,464 :
: Positions :
: 11,195 8,237 1,146 0 70 954 8,804 280 2,471 1,043 4,465 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2019 :
: 15 304 -39 0 0 119 -160 -1 191 -91 1,030 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.0 32.3 4.5 0.0 0.3 3.7 34.6 1.1 9.7 4.1 17.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 90 :
: 24 16 6 0 . . 24 . 20 6 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher for the week in New York and lower in London. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.027 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 116.09 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Mostly dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 117.00 and 104.00 March. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 121.00 March, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1280 January. Support is at 1340, 1300, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 353,833
: Positions :
: 41,067 21,018 111,821 113,619 198,235 75,935 13,683 342,442 344,756: 11,391 9,076
: Changes from: December 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -10,638) :
: 1,136 -4,421 -4,226 -5,856 562 -1,370 -1,413 -10,317 -9,498: -321 -1,140
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 5.9 31.6 32.1 56.0 21.5 3.9 96.8 97.4: 3.2 2.6
: Total Traders: 437 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 92 149 119 114 50 28 389 321:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
124,701 70,713 60,501 8,024 13,292 2,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.7% 48.5% 6.4% 10.7% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 51 41 13 6 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,732 14,789 8,450 3,269 4,080 16,480
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.4% 11.9% 6.8% 2.6% 3.3% 13.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 25 17 15 6 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
8,544 4,619
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.9% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher for the week. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers until dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 360.00, 363.00, and 366.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,169,175
: Positions :
: 157,111 162,097 255,298 356,750 617,736 307,142 79,236 1,076,301 1,114,366: 92,874 54,809
: Changes from: December 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -38,441) :
: 2,466 -18,827 -7,744 -24,329 -501 -4,269 -8,574 -33,876 -35,647: -4,565 -2,795
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 13.9 21.8 30.5 52.8 26.3 6.8 92.1 95.3: 7.9 4.7
: Total Traders: 278 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 55 96 80 78 41 29 249 216:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
78,738 32,818 52,415 7,526 1,963 3,806
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 41.7% 66.6% 9.6% 2.5% 4.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
125 46 38 9 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,236 8,550 3,959 3,763 2,338 3,041
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.2% 10.9% 5.0% 4.8% 3.0% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
25 12 13 6 10 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,589 2,665
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London. The market acts weak as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest has started and drier weather is now more important. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.717 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2420 and 2320 March. Support is at 2380, 2280, and 2240 March, with resistance at 2440, 2510, and 2550 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1730 and 1690 March. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 March, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 361,925
: Positions :
: 74,302 38,987 114,854 93,666 173,854 65,645 24,152 348,468 351,848: 13,457 10,077
: Changes from: December 10, 2019 (Change in open interest: -7,311) :
: 1,413 2,570 -2,780 -5,179 -6,857 266 -74 -6,280 -7,142: -1,031 -168
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 10.8 31.7 25.9 48.0 18.1 6.7 96.3 97.2: 3.7 2.8
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 56 87 39 44 38 20 207 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 12/17/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
363,596 170,400 259,294 50,663 12,539 15,335
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.9% 71.3% 13.9% 3.4% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 48 48 15 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
==============================================================================
54,684 9,108 24,536 5,043 1,204 40,006
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.0% 2.5% 6.7% 1.4% 0.3% 11.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
32 16 13 16 8 26
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,929 1,573
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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