About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on mostly speculative buying. Short term trends are up in the market after a relentless move lower since April. The export sales report was considered positive for futures. The market got a small lift from the less than expected production but could not really hold the gains. The selling has been curbed even so. That seems to be due to the lack of Chinese demand for anyone who produces Cotton and weaker world prices against those of the US. Even so, the export sales reports on a weekly basis have been relatively strong as most of the traditional buyers get bought before China or someone else can come in and change the market. The world market remains quiet.
Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast should see dry conditions this week and showers this weekend. Temperatures should be mostly near to above normal. Texas will have showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average price is now 63.12 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 15,855 bales, from 19,163 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7070 and 7510 March. Support is at 6700, 6620, and 6600 March, with resistance of 6720, 6780, and 6870 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Dec 19
As of Dec 13. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 19 0 0 0 0 12 -12
Mar 20 36,919 37,023 -104 24,417 26,348 -1,931
May 20 17,562 15,893 1,669 1,900 2,056 -156
Jul 20 21,979 19,236 2,743 3,312 3,264 48
Oct 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 14,175 14,132 43 18,226 19,258 -1,032
Mar 21 4,959 4,961 -2 967 967 0
May 21 2,059 2,061 -2 147 147 0
Jul 21 3,569 3,595 -26 220 243 -23
Dec 21 740 740 0 1,357 1,285 72
Mar 22 440 440 0 0 0 0
Dec 22 0 0 0 7 7 0
Dec 23 0 0 0 7 7 0
Total 102,402 98,081 4,321 50,560 53,594 -3,034
Open Change
Int
Dec 19 0 3 -3
Mar 20 120,276 120,790 -514
May 20 38,039 33,706 4,333
Jul 20 17,177 16,235 942
Oct 20 7 7 0
Dec 20 25,239 24,221 1,018
Mar 21 1,097 1,050 47
May 21 176 192 -16
Jul 21 442 412 30
Dec 21 219 219 0
Mar 22 2 0
Dec 22 0 0 0
Dec 23 0 0 0
Total 202,674 199,846 2,828

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher once again in range trading. Chart patterns have turned mixed to up in the short-term and maintain a sideways bias longer term. The weather in Florida had been good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in development in the fruit. Inventories in Florida are still well above a year ago. Fruit for the next crop is developing and are as big as baseballs. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week and scattered showers this weekend with biggest amounts and coverage on Sunday. Dry again next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal but near to below normal next week. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 100.00 and 102.00 January. Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 100.00, 101.00, and 102.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Dec 19
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING:
12/7/2019 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/7/2019 12/8/2018 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 276.15 206.20 33.9%
Retail/Institutional 5.91 5.22 13.2%
Total 282.06 211.42 33.4%
Pack
Bulk 5.40 4.83 11.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.59 1.04 52.2%
Total Pack 6.98 5.88 18.8%
Reprocessed -1.84 -1.87 -1.9%
Pack from Fruit 5.14 4.00 28.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.03 -0.10 -65.8%
Imports – Foreign 9.46 3.27 189.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.00 0.15 -100.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.00 0.00 NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 1.59 0.00 NA
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.01 0.01 -3.5%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 290.73 212.50 36.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.50 6.26 19.7%
Total 298.23 218.76 36.3%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.10 4.86 4.9%
Exports 0.37 0.34 8.4%
Total (Bulk) 5.47 5.20 5.2%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.25 1.10 13.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.25 1.10 13.5%
Total Movement 6.72 6.30 6.6%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 285.26 207.30 37.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.25 5.16 21.0%
Ending Inventory 291.51 212.46 37.2%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
7-Dec-19 8-Dec-18 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 311.95 237.21 31.5%
Retail/Institutional 5.82 5.92 -1.6%
Total 317.77 243.13 30.7%
Pack
Bulk 8.82 14.57 -39.4%
Retail/Institutional 12.57 11.12 13.1%
Total Pack 21.40 25.69 -16.7%
Reprocessed -15.65 -17.92 -12.6%
Pack from Fruit 5.74 7.77 -26.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.31 -0.87 -64.3%
Imports – Foreign 15.81 24.00 -34.1%
Domestic Receipts 1.56 0.20 668.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.13 0.04 257.3%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 5.79 0.24 2360.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.14 0.18 -19.4%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 328.23 257.65 27.4%
Retail/Institutional 18.40 17.03 8.0%
Total 346.63 274.68 26.2%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 39.74 47.72 -16.7%
Domestic 3.23 2.63 22.9%
Exports 42.97 50.35 -14.7%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 12.15 11.87 2.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 12.15 11.87 2.3%
Total Movement 55.12 62.22 -11.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 285.26 207.30 37.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.25 5.16 21.0%
Ending Inventory 291.51 212.46 37.2%

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower on speculative and come producer selling. There has not been any news to push prices higher lately so a correction is underway. The market knows about smaller crops from Brazil for the current harvest and has seen projections for smaller crops next year as well. However, there are many who think the next crop will be good and could total 70 million bags or more. Current growing conditions in Brazil are called good after recent rains. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains. Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer level, but production has been able to increase at a faster rate. The weaker production this year should help to hold prices from going much lower.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.024 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 115.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Mostly dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Vietnam will see scattered showers and storms mostly in the north.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 117.00 and 104.00 March. Support is at 124.00, 121.00, and 119.00 March, and resistance is at 132.00, 135.00 and 141.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1280 January. Support is at 1340, 1300, and 1270 January, and resistance is at 1400, 1420, and 1450 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on speculative buying. Recent statements from analysts have been bearish but the market continues to try to push higher. India reported very good monsoon rains and production prospects for this year have improved after a slow start to the season. India still has some supplies from a year ago to export as well. Brazil mills are refining mostly for ethanol right now as has been the case all season. The fundamentals still suggest big supplies. The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season. Better weather was seen in early August then it turned hot and dry again.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers until dry weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1340, 1320, and 1300 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1380, and 1400 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 362.00 and 368.00 March. Support is at 352.00, 350.00, and 348.00 March, and resistance is at 360.00, 363.00, and 366.00 March.

DJ Brazil Raises Estimates of Sugarcane, Ethanol Output for 2019-2020
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecasts for sugarcane production and ethanol output for the 2019-2020 season as good weather boosted productivity.
The country will grow 642.7 million metric tons of sugarcane, Conab said Thursday. In August, the agency forecast a crop of 622.3 million tons and in the 2018-2019 season Brazilian farmers grew 620.4 million tons. Ethanol output will rise to 35.5 billion liters in the season, from 33.1 billion liters in the previous season. Conab forecast ethanol output of 31.6 billion liters in August.
A global sugar production surplus has put downward pressure on the price of the sweetener, and encouraged Brazilian sugar mills to cut output in favor of making more ethanol. Conab cut its forecast for sugar output to 30.1 million metric tons, from 31.8 million tons in August. In 2018-2019 Brazil produced 29 million tons of sugar.
The South American country has the world’s biggest fleet of flex-fuel cars, which can run on either gasoline or ethanol, and the government actively promotes the use of ethanol as an alternative fuel.
The country is also boosting production of ethanol from corn. Brazil will produce 1.7 billion liters of ethanol from corn in 2019-2020, up from 741,431 liters in 2018-2019, Conab said. The agency forecast corn ethanol production of 1.3 billion liters in August.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in New York and in London. The market acts weak as the next main crop harvest comes closer to reality in West Africa. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be good. The harvest has started and drier weather is now more important. The harvest is ongoing amid showers, but good progress in the harvest is expected at this time. The weather in Asia is also called good. More and more Asian Cocoa has been staying at home and processed in Indonesia for export in the region. Demand in Asia has been growing and Indonesia has been eager to be the primary source of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.717 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2420 and 2320 March. Support is at 2420, 2340, and 2280 March, with resistance at 2510, 2550, and 2580 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1730 and 1690 March. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 March, with resistance at 1770, 1800, and 1820 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322