About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday on speculative selling. The weekly export sales report was very strong but in line with trade expectations. It was mostly another profit taking session after the recent run to higher prices. The markets continued to note the dryer than normal conditions in Kansas. However, the rest of this week is expected to be warm and a little wetter. World prices have been weaker in the last couple of weeks but have turned a little higher with the new Argentine export taxes. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should trend to near to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather but light snow is possible in northern areas tomorrow and in all areas late in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal by the middle of this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 534, and 530 March, with resistance at 557, 567, and 573 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 478 and 525 March. Support is at 456, 451, and 444 March, with resistance at 468, 470, and 482 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 548 March. Support is at 539, 531, and 521 March, and resistance is at 546, 549, and 551 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher again yesterday as demand for US Rice runs into a lack of farm selling. The export sales report was moderately strong but good for the time of the year as most of the market has shut down for the holidays. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive as the western nations have been buying. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but anyone who needs to buy paddy Rice from farmers will be forced to pay higher prices. Brazil prices are also sharply higher and this is supporting Chicago. There is plenty of Rice in the eastern part of the world, but not so much in the west.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1265 January. Support is at 1263, 1256, and 1249 January, with resistance at 1282, 1288, and 1300 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower on what was termed speculative profit taking. The weekly export dales report was very strong but in line with analyst projections. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding and speculators have been selling. They have been forced to cover these shorts due to the Chinese demand potential but have been selling the last couple of days. Farmers are still holding onto the vast majority of their supplies although they did sell some earlier in the week. There is still very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been at lower prices, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn. The charts show a new up move has started and the move could last until 395 or 400 March.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 398 and 411 March. Support is at 385, 380, and 378 March, and resistance is at 390, 392, and 393 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 297, 291, and 288 March, and resistance is at 303, 309, and 312 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the Soybean Meal were lower yesterday. Soybean Oil was higher. The US-China trade deal became a reality over the weekend and has led to higher prices for the US. The lack of any news since then hurt the price action over the last two days. The deal calls for the Chinese to sharply ramp up purchases of US ag products including Soybeans and products. However, US prices are about the same as those in Brazil for nearby needs and will need to stay there in order to maximize purchase potential from the Chinese and anyone else. The US harvest is over now and many producers have put their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. The charts show that strong resistance lies just overhead at about 930 January and the market might have trouble rallying much further without some concrete action on the art of the Chinese. China will buy but will also buy a lot of pork and products and beef and products as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 921, 917, and 910 January, and resistance is at 931, 939, and 942 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 297.00, 293.00, and 290.00 January, and resistance is at 304.00, 306.00, and 310.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3600 January. Support is at 3320, 3290, and 3260 January, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3490 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysia Palm Oil. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but the daily chart price trends are up. Demand from crushers is reported to be good and crush margins are reported to be strong. Palm Oil was lower on some profit taking. Ideas are that Palm has moved higher faster than the demand. Ideas are that the rally can continue after a pause. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years in its recent reports.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 837.873 tons, from 933,321 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 475.00 January. Support is at 464.00, 463.00, and 461.00 January, with resistance at 469.00, 471.00, and 473.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2810, 2780, and 2740 March, with resistance at 2920, 2940, and 2970 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow today, then mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December +42 mr +165 Mar +95 Mar +59 Jan +12 JN N/A
January +53 MR +100 Mar +59 Jan
February +57 Mar +100 Mar +44 mR
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 19
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Dec. 19, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 435.80 -26.00 Jan 2020 dn 4.60
Track Thunder Bay 484.10 7.00 Mar 2020 up 8.50
Track Vancouver 492.10 15.00 Mar 2020 up 8.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 727.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 727.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 730.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 712.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 730.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 730.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 732.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 715.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 727.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 630.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,950.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 242.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1415)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,040 lots, or 4.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,420 3,420 3,365 3,369 3,413 3,388 -25 16,838 35,784
Mar-20 3,472 3,472 3,418 3,418 3,463 3,420 -43 666 2,074
May-20 3,836 3,849 3,820 3,838 3,845 3,834 -11 96,396 156,486
Jul-20 3,892 3,892 3,892 3,892 3,898 3,892 -6 2 60
Sep-20 3,882 3,888 3,866 3,878 3,886 3,876 -10 2,126 20,970
Nov-20 3,774 3,788 3,773 3,788 3,788 3,780 -8 12 132
Corn
Turnover: 801,078 lots, or 15.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,825 1,832 1,825 1,831 1,829 1,827 -2 36,082 81,660
Mar-20 1,843 1,850 1,839 1,845 1,844 1,841 -3 114,806 602,238
May-20 1,881 1,887 1,873 1,885 1,883 1,879 -4 597,792 1,312,544
Jul-20 1,909 1,914 1,903 1,914 1,913 1,906 -7 930 9,096
Sep-20 1,924 1,928 1,917 1,926 1,926 1,922 -4 51,006 229,212
Nov-20 1,939 1,943 1,932 1,943 1,947 1,936 -11 462 4,380
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,877,304 lots, or 51.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 2,722 2,734 2,714 2,718 2,743 2,724 -19 67,458 165,604
Mar-20 2,703 2,711 2,689 2,692 2,713 2,698 -15 122,058 507,722
May-20 2,743 2,752 2,733 2,737 2,752 2,741 -11 1,417,702 3,238,648
Jul-20 2,768 2,769 2,762 2,762 2,777 2,764 -13 840 2,498
Aug-20 2,795 2,810 2,795 2,810 2,803 2,800 -3 6 156
Sep-20 2,809 2,819 2,802 2,806 2,820 2,809 -11 268,708 1,615,752
Nov-20 2,834 2,838 2,833 2,835 2,844 2,834 -10 522 284
Dec-20 2,835 2,841 2,834 2,841 2,847 2,837 -10 10 24
Palm Oil
Turnover: 4,115,818 lots, or 24.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,038 6,200 6,030 6,184 5,994 6,138 144 268,928 159,642
Feb-20 6,058 6,122 6,048 6,086 6,000 6,082 82 94 530
Mar-20 6,094 6,188 6,084 6,156 6,048 6,124 76 152 300
Apr-20 – – – 5,980 5,980 5,980 0 0 12
May-20 5,954 6,080 5,946 6,052 5,912 6,018 106 3,772,334 1,339,826
Jun-20 5,638 6,008 5,638 6,008 5,862 5,966 104 214 12
Jul-20 – – – 5,938 5,836 5,938 102 0 606
Aug-20 – – – 5,864 5,762 5,864 102 0 12
Sep-20 5,660 5,796 5,660 5,768 5,636 5,728 92 74,096 115,814
Oct-20 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 4
Nov-20 – – – 5,624 5,624 5,624 0 0 10
Dec-20 – – – 5,736 5,644 5,736 92 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,476,454 lots, or 97.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 6,580 6,646 6,538 6,602 6,584 6,584 0 47,896 40,604
Mar-20 6,726 6,780 6,720 6,776 6,666 6,742 76 40 580
May-20 6,576 6,656 6,560 6,622 6,572 6,610 38 1,346,430 1,290,436
Jul-20 – – – 6,570 6,570 6,570 0 0 532
Aug-20 – – – 6,520 6,484 6,520 36 0 0
Sep-20 6,494 6,558 6,470 6,520 6,480 6,516 36 82,088 255,668
Nov-20 – – – 6,406 6,406 6,406 0 0 18
Dec-20 – – – 6,368 6,368 6,368 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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