About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 05, 2019 319 Nov 29, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 05, 2019 658 Dec 03, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec. 05, 2019 11 Dec 03, 2019
CORN December Dec. 05, 2019 129 Aug 05, 2019
OATS December Dec. 05, 2019 10 Nov 11, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and were led lower by some speculative long liquidation in Chicago. Minneapolis and HRW markets were weaker on ideas of plentiful supplies of higher protein Wheat in the world market. SRW was weaker as ideas are that US Wheat is too high-priced to compete in the world market. Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand. World prices have been stronger in the last couple of weeks but have not rallied nearly as much as the US futures market has. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above of normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow this weekend. Temperatures will average above over he next few days, than below normal starting on Sunday. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather this week and some snow this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 522, 511, and 507 March, with resistance at 534, 539, and 546 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 436, 435, and 428 March, with resistance at 446, 451, and 456 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 508, 506, and 500 March, and resistance is at 522, 531, and 534 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on some speculative long liquidation. Futures have run a long way in just over a week. The weekly charts are bullish but also show the chance for some selling to develop in the short-term. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was very strong. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but there is very little on offer from producers even with the current rally.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1219, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1242, 1256, and 1264 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed to slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged. Futures held well considering the bad export demand news tweeted out by the president. He said that any China deal could wait until after the elections and that a delay might be preferable to an agreement now. He also threatened a trade war with France, Brazil, and Argentina. But the market held support and traded to new highs before backing down. The moves helped support ideas that the market action of late last week was a sign of an exhausted down move. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there I very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been less, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn. The charts show a new leg down getting started on Wednesday and then rejected on Friday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 373, and 370 March, and resistance is at 385, 387, and 389 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 295 March. Support is at 301, 298, and 293 March, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 318 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher yesterday. Soybeans have been working sharply lower for the past month as the market is tired of hearing about the potential US-China trade deal and wants to see the real thing. The president said that any China deal could wait until after the elections and that a delay might be preferable to an agreement now. He also threatened a trade war with France, Brazil, and Argentina. There does not seem to be any other news of interest to traders in the entire complex. The US harvest is entering its final stages now and many producers are putting their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight News: Morocco bought 20,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 868, 865, and 856 January, and resistance is at 883, 887, and 894 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 292.00 January. Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 January, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 303.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2990, 2930, and 2890 January. Support is at 3010, 2980, and 2950 January, with resistance at 3050, 3080, and 3130 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but trends have started to turn down. Demand from crushers is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with the outside markets. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years in its recent reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 451.00, 448.00, and 445.00 January, with resistance at 459.00, 466.00, and 468.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2770 February. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2470 February, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2710 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week. Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +54 Dec +180 Dec +95 Dec +62 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +55 Dec +95 Dec +60 Jan
January +55 Mar +90 Mar +57 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 2
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 426.60 -30.00 Jan 2020 dn 1.30
Basis: Thunder Bay 462.10 10.00 Jan 2020 dn 4.50
Basis: Vancouver 470.10 18.00 Jan 2020 dn 4.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.comm, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 667.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 670.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 677.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 672.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 670.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 550.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,750.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 212.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 392,068 lots, or 14.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,452 3,485 3,431 3,478 3,407 3,457 50 175,568 110,768
Mar-20 3,505 3,549 3,499 3,537 3,481 3,524 43 144 168
May-20 3,811 3,866 3,795 3,848 3,758 3,826 68 202,216 144,220
Jul-20 3,850 3,885 3,850 3,885 3,810 3,870 60 8 48
Sep-20 3,860 3,926 3,857 3,917 3,822 3,890 68 14,102 16,394
Nov-20 3,850 3,856 3,832 3,847 3,850 3,844 -6 30 30
Corn
Turnover: 1,019,478 lots, or 19.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,831 1,833 1,820 1,829 1,827 1,825 -2 269,174 610,470
Mar-20 1,849 1,852 1,840 1,848 1,844 1,843 -1 145,180 612,246
May-20 1,898 1,900 1,885 1,896 1,892 1,891 -1 573,222 1,139,198
Jul-20 1,926 1,927 1,916 1,923 1,923 1,921 -2 720 9,772
Sep-20 1,956 1,958 1,943 1,954 1,949 1,950 1 29,372 140,056
Nov-20 1,963 1,970 1,961 1,965 1,964 1,965 1 1,810 1,394
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,266,136 lots, or 62.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 2,780 2,780 2,780 2,780 2,780 2,780 0 100 3,000
Jan-20 2,855 2,858 2,831 2,834 2,830 2,839 9 346,702 679,940
Mar-20 2,778 2,792 2,772 2,775 2,770 2,778 8 111,712 470,932
May-20 2,765 2,768 2,736 2,740 2,747 2,747 0 1,552,626 2,835,992
Jul-20 2,774 2,775 2,756 2,756 2,769 2,768 -1 288 2,038
Aug-20 – – – 2,796 2,796 2,796 0 0 166
Sep-20 2,809 2,818 2,786 2,787 2,801 2,796 -5 254,654 1,336,428
Nov-20 2,807 2,808 2,796 2,802 2,814 2,803 -11 54 92
Palm Oil
Turnover: 4,129,316 lots, or 23.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 – – – 5,500 5,500 5,500 0 0 0
Jan-20 5,604 5,678 5,566 5,640 5,548 5,618 70 1,202,626 440,082
Feb-20 5,678 5,786 5,676 5,786 5,586 5,680 94 394 1,016
Mar-20 5,664 5,786 5,598 5,732 5,642 5,648 6 228 28
Apr-20 – – – 5,652 5,652 5,652 0 0 8
May-20 5,728 5,784 5,680 5,724 5,666 5,722 56 2,881,354 935,830
Jun-20 5,722 5,728 5,716 5,716 5,680 5,722 42 16 12
Jul-20 – – – 5,742 5,700 5,742 42 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,682 5,682 5,682 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,536 5,568 5,472 5,512 5,484 5,506 22 44,694 73,946
Oct-20 5,600 5,600 5,598 5,598 5,620 5,598 -22 4 4
Nov-20 – – – 5,484 5,504 5,484 -20 0 22
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,025,498 lots, or 63.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 – – – 6,122 6,122 6,122 0 0 4
Jan-20 6,244 6,274 6,216 6,244 6,206 6,242 36 166,036 258,002
Mar-20 6,334 6,354 6,310 6,338 6,368 6,334 -34 20 724
May-20 6,232 6,278 6,208 6,240 6,202 6,238 36 819,568 888,784
Jul-20 – – – 6,236 6,236 6,236 0 0 530
Aug-20 – – – 6,198 6,198 6,198 0 0 0
Sep-20 6,186 6,224 6,152 6,196 6,142 6,190 48 39,874 214,082
Nov-20 – – – 6,176 6,176 6,176 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322