About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower after trading both sides of unchanged. The market got some good news on Friday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales. China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward. China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil. The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions. Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much. The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks and certified inventories have been steadily growing but will soon start to level off. The market could hold to a sideways to weaker pattern until the tail end of the harvest.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather except for some light to moderate rain on Friday and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast should get mostly dry conditions until some light to moderate rain returns on Friday. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 60.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,257 bales, from 86,133 bales yesterday. ICE said that 25 notices were posted against December contracts and that the total deliveries for the month are now 793 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6480, 6370, and 6270 March, with resistance of 6600, 6610, and 6690 March.

Crop Progress
Date 1-Dec 24-Nov 2018 Avg
Cotton Harvested 83 78 74 81
Corn Harvested 89 84 97 98
Soybeans Harvested 96 94 97 99
Sorghum Harvested 93 88 79 87
Sunflowers Harvested 65 56 81 94

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 232,326
: Positions :
: 29,723 47,005 47,050 54,881 109,084 87,024 16,475 218,678 219,613: 13,648 12,713
: Changes from: November 19, 2019 (Change in open interest: -20,044) :
: 4,538 -3,654 -5,289 -16,796 -9,478 510 900 -17,038 -17,521: -3,006 -2,523
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 20.2 20.3 23.6 47.0 37.5 7.1 94.1 94.5: 5.9 5.5
: Total Traders: 291 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 88 82 47 56 49 21 218 211:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower. Overall chart patterns suggest that the trends are starting to turn down again. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year. Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 35% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and mixed temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 81.00 January. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 103.00, and 104.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,025 :
: Positions :
: 10,599 7,708 1,188 0 70 653 7,520 152 1,756 1,045 2,319 :
: Changes from: November 19, 2019 :
: -134 93 -28 0 0 -16 -165 0 82 1 97 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.4 36.7 5.7 0.0 0.3 3.1 35.8 0.7 8.4 5.0 11.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 85 :
: 24 14 6 0 . . 24 . 17 9 11 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher in New York and a little higher in London. The lack of offer, especially from Brazil but also from Central America, supported the market. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well. Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from. Peru is also too dry right now. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers in the short-term. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.081 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 113.03 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers on Thursday and temperatures on both sides of normal. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas, but trends are a little dryer now. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against December NY Coffee and that total deliveries for the month are now 228 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 113.00 December, and resistance is at 123.00, 125.00 and 127.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1360, 1340, and 1330 January, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1440 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 331,999
: Positions :
: 28,225 35,817 100,666 115,299 168,615 76,075 18,487 320,265 323,586: 11,733 8,413
: Changes from: November 19, 2019 (Change in open interest: 19,122) :
: -1,498 -12,744 20,597 1,973 16,501 5,159 915 26,231 25,269: -7,109 -6,147
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 10.8 30.3 34.7 50.8 22.9 5.6 96.5 97.5: 3.5 2.5
: Total Traders: 423 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 97 139 117 110 46 28 357 321:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower despite rallies in Crude Oil and products and bullish demand ideas. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Demand from Brazil mills could be mostly for Ethanol and that would hurt world Sugar production. There are tight supplies in other countries as well. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1330 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 331.00 March, and resistance is at 346.00, 348.00, and 351.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,130,610
: Positions :
: 120,633 239,020 214,127 396,968 518,466 314,335 96,958 1,046,064 1,068,571: 84,546 62,039
: Changes from: November 19, 2019 (Change in open interest: 36,399) :
: 5,819 -9,188 12,174 17,537 39,209 7,286 1,303 42,817 43,499: -6,417 -7,100
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 21.1 18.9 35.1 45.9 27.8 8.6 92.5 94.5: 7.5 5.5
: Total Traders: 267 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 65 81 80 70 41 28 230 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower again in correction trading. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.164 million bags. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 248 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2530 and 2460 March. Support is at 2510, 2480, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2610, 2670, and 2690 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1850 March. Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 March, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1950 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 369,700
: Positions :
: 77,052 37,834 112,053 103,458 184,291 63,397 24,795 355,959 358,973: 13,741 10,727
: Changes from: November 19, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,731) :
: 5,277 2,067 9,985 -4,099 735 1,247 -876 12,410 11,911: -6,679 -6,180
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 10.2 30.3 28.0 49.8 17.1 6.7 96.3 97.1: 3.7 2.9
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 62 89 37 43 37 22 217 175:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322