About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 03, 2019 260 Nov 22, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 03, 2019 1270 Nov 25, 2019
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec. 03, 2019 11 Nov 18, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher for the week and were led higher by Chicago SRW futures. Minneapolis and HRW markets were weaker on ideas of plentiful supplies of higher protein Wheat in the world market. SRW is finding some support on reduced production but also faces poor demand. Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand. World prices have been weaker in the last couple of weeks and this was seen by the Egyptian tender where even the EU could not compete with Russia and eastern Europe. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures will moderate over he next few days. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal but near to above normal by late this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 548 and 562 March. Support is at 533, 529, and 522 March, with resistance at 554, 561, and 574 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 454, 459, and 464 March. Support is at 444, 436, and 435 March, with resistance at 451, 456, and 457 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 512, 508, and 506 March, and resistance is at 522, 531, and 534 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher on Friday and higher for the week. The weekly charts still display a bullish market and higher prices this week would be positive for the medium term. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was very strong. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but anyone who needs to buy paddy Rice from farmers will be forced to pay higher prices after not finding much selling interest at all.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1252 and 1299 January. Support is at 1236, 1224, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1256, 1264, and 1276 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed back inside the recent trading range after breaking down on Wednesday. The moves seem related to First Notice Day as the market was probably anticipating big deliveries against the December contract but got none. The speculative crowd might not get many deliveries either unless the prices rally by quite a bit. The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding. That means that there I very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market. Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been less, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn. The charts show a new leg down getting started on Wednesday and then rejected on Friday. It was a thin trade over the holiday, but one with potential meaning for bulls and bears.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 373, and 370 March, and resistance is at 383, 387, and 392 March. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 322, 327, and 337 March. Support is at 318, 313, and 311 March, and resistance is at 326, 329, and 332 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower for the week. The US harvest is entering its final stages now and many producers are putting their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic demand was strong in the NOPA data. The market was also affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China. Word most of the week that a Phase One deal was progressing well and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support futures for much of the week. USDA showed that China continued to be a strong buyer in the US market in its weekly reports on Friday. The market has not been that strong given the great export sales reports and news of more sales on the daily system.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 875, 868, and 865 January, and resistance is at 887, 894, and 896 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 292.00 January. Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 January, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 303.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2990 and 2890 January. Support is at 3030, 3010, and 2980 January, with resistance at 3080, 3130, and 3160 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on a lack of trading interest and on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. Prices are still in a range that has held for the week. Demand from crushers is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now. Palm Oil was lower on signs of export weakness amid increased import tariffs being charged by India. The market was expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data and they got it. Price action is very strong. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years on Friday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2770 February. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2470 February, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2710 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week. Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +57 Dec +180 Dec +95 Dec +59 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +57 Dec +102 Dec +57 Jan
January +53 Mar +90 Mar +57 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 15
ICE Canola Cash Close
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Nov. 15 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, Nov. 15
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 432.00 -30.00 Nov 2019 up 0.20
Track Thunder Bay 472.50 10.00 Nov 2019 up 0.50
Track Vancouver 480.50 18.00 Nov 2019 up 0.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 652.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 662.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 677.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 667.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,700.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 204.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1785)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 135,452 lots, or 4.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 3,368 3,385 3,366 3,385 3,366 3,376 10 97,186 139,848
Mar-20 3,425 3,457 3,425 3,440 3,440 3,444 4 16 120
May-20 3,676 3,695 3,676 3,690 3,675 3,684 9 35,908 105,530
Jul-20 – – – 3,735 3,733 3,735 2 0 56
Sep-20 3,765 3,773 3,748 3,769 3,757 3,761 4 2,342 13,880
Nov-20 – – – 3,782 3,782 3,782 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 883,974 lots, or 16.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-20 1,829 1,833 1,817 1,823 1,820 1,824 4 373,362 742,682
Mar-20 1,852 1,854 1,843 1,847 1,845 1,846 1 74,246 609,528
May-20 1,901 1,903 1,885 1,892 1,891 1,893 2 402,912 1,096,884
Jul-20 1,925 1,926 1,918 1,923 1,924 1,921 -3 354 9,528
Sep-20 1,954 1,959 1,944 1,952 1,950 1,951 1 32,928 136,666
Nov-20 1,976 1,976 1,963 1,968 1,967 1,968 1 172 784
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,485,240 lots, or 68.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 2,769 2,769 2,747 2,747 2,808 2,753 -55 16 3,000
Jan-20 2,842 2,844 2,813 2,822 2,837 2,826 -11 407,764 797,482
Mar-20 2,794 2,797 2,763 2,767 2,778 2,774 -4 106,368 466,372
May-20 2,774 2,775 2,736 2,743 2,754 2,750 -4 1,564,796 2,761,210
Jul-20 2,791 2,791 2,761 2,763 2,776 2,766 -10 160 2,082
Aug-20 2,790 2,801 2,775 2,784 2,804 2,790 -14 28 166
Sep-20 2,829 2,836 2,792 2,797 2,813 2,805 -8 406,078 1,228,800
Nov-20 2,825 2,825 2,802 2,802 2,827 2,814 -13 30 38
Palm Oil
Turnover: 3,958,588 lots, or 22.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 – – – 5,500 5,500 5,500 0 0 0
Jan-20 5,556 5,606 5,488 5,552 5,536 5,556 20 2,213,080 472,882
Feb-20 5,656 5,656 5,586 5,600 5,624 5,606 -18 24 712
Mar-20 5,648 5,648 5,648 5,648 5,632 5,648 16 2 16
Apr-20 – – – 5,652 5,652 5,652 0 0 8
May-20 5,746 5,776 5,622 5,692 5,728 5,702 -26 1,707,874 812,572
Jun-20 5,680 5,680 5,680 5,680 5,708 5,680 -28 2 10
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 604
Aug-20 – – – 5,682 5,682 5,682 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,552 5,594 5,456 5,514 5,566 5,524 -42 37,606 69,844
Oct-20 – – – 5,670 5,670 5,670 0 0 6
Nov-20 – – – 5,616 5,658 5,616 -42 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,183,128 lots, or 73.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-19 – – – 6,122 6,122 6,122 0 0 4
Jan-20 6,278 6,286 6,190 6,204 6,260 6,236 -24 265,174 305,976
Mar-20 – – – 6,368 6,368 6,368 0 0 724
May-20 6,276 6,294 6,180 6,204 6,270 6,232 -38 867,172 858,338
Jul-20 – – – 6,236 6,270 6,236 -34 0 530
Aug-20 – – – 6,198 6,234 6,198 -36 0 0
Sep-20 6,218 6,242 6,126 6,150 6,218 6,192 -26 50,782 207,116
Nov-20 – – – 6,280 6,280 6,280 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322