Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We started the day with MBA Mortgage Applications that came in at 9.6% versus the previous -0.1% and the MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate came in at 4.03% versus 3.98 % at 6:00 A.M. We have CPI and Real Earnings at 7:30 A.M., FED Chair Powell Testimony at 10:00 A.M., FED Kashkari Speech at 12:30 P.M., Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M. and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. On the Corn front, yesterday’s Crop Progress showed Corn was 66% harvested but remained the farthest behind in a decade. Farmers are hustling in the field to get most of the crop out of the ground. This is creating more harvest pressure on the market and propane shortages are adding to the harvest challenge. Just to give you an idea of the 66% harvested means DTN Senior Analyst Dana Mantini said, “Notable laggards are Michigan 33% done versus 82% average, Wisconsin 30% compared to a 65% average, South Dakota at 39% versus 82% average, North Dakota just 15% versus a 76% average and Iowa 64% harvested versus 86%”. If that does not paint a picture to what a rough year from the beginning and there seems to be no end in sight. It is like the movie Ground Hog Day. What can happen now? In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 375 ¾ which is 2 cents lower. The trading range has been 377 ½ to 375 ½.
On the Ethanol front, U.S. Ethanol exports topped 100 million gallons in September. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service released November 5th, the U.S. exported 100.31 million gallons of Ethanol and 1.05 million tonnes of distillers grains during the month. The September Ethanol exports were up slightly compared to the 98.56 million gallons exported in August. Erin Voegele with Ethanol Producer Magazine contributed to these numbers. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The December contract settled at 1.433 and the market is currently showing 1 bid @ 1.421 and 1 offer @ 1.437 with Open Interest at 338 contracts.
On the Crude Oil front, the market is playing the range game again. We will need another headline to get the bulls running the table again, and we may get it with tonight’s API Energy Stocks. Although, organizations that have been supplying data from the API, EIA and the USDA have been the target of much scrutiny with numbers supplied just do not seem to add up. In the overnight electronic session the December Crude Oil is currently trading at 5651 which is 29 points lower. The trading range has been 5680 to 5620.
On the Natural Gas front, it looks like the market is pricing in the break in the cold snap as temperatures are expected to reach the balmy 30 degrees Fahrenheit as soon as tomorrow. In the overnight electronic session the December Natural Gas is currently trading at 2.591 which is 3 cents lower. The trading range has been 2.641 to 2.589.
Have a Great Trading Day!
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374