About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher as USDA cut production and ending stocks for the US in its reports on Friday. The reports also showed less ending stocks in the world data with exporter nations producing less and China also with smaller ending stocks. The report was considered supportive to higher prices. The charts do not necessarily show a bull market but prices have already moved higher for much of the second half of the year. USDA showed lower yields to account for the lower production as harvested area was left unchanged. Demand estimates were left unchanged. US Cotton producers have faced difficult weather all year. The Texas Panhandle in particular has seen drought and now is seeing very cold and freezing temperatures. The Southeast has seen rain and then a drought and now is getting below normal temperatures. The difficult trading conditions are the reason for the lower yields. Export demand has not been real strong but has been better in recent weeks. The market still hopes for positive news from the US-China trade talks as US Cotton producers want to sell to China and China has indicated it could buy. It is currently buying from Brazil to cover some high quality needs.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 61.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 42,441 ba1es, from 39,233 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6340, and 6290 December, with resistance of 6500, 6550, and 6570 December.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Nov 8
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2018/2019 2019/2020
prev Nov 8 prev Nov 8
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 14.10 14.10 13.76 13.76
Harvested 10.21 10.21 12.51 12.51
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 864 864 833 799
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.20 4.20 4.85 4.85
Production 18.37 18.37 21.71 20.82
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 22.57 22.57 26.56 25.67
Domestic use 2.98 2.98 3.00 3.00
Exports 14.76 14.76 16.50 16.50
Use, total 17.74 17.74 19.50 19.50
Unaccounted 2/ -0.02 -0.02 0.06 0.07
Ending stocks 4.85 4.85 7.00 6.10
Avg. farm price 3/ 70.50 70.30 58.00 61.00
==========================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per
pound for upland cotton.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Nov 8
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Oct 80.73 124.77 42.90 121.61 42.91 0.19 83.69
Nov 80.55 121.94 44.03 121.49 44.03 0.20 80.80
World Less China
Oct 45.06 97.02 33.40 82.11 42.74 0.19 50.45
Nov 44.88 94.69 34.53 81.99 43.85 0.20 48.06
United States
Oct 4.85 21.71 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.06 7.00
Nov 4.85 20.82 0.01 3.00 16.50 0.07 6.10
Total foreign
Oct 75.88 103.07 42.90 118.61 26.41 0.13 76.69
Nov 75.70 101.12 44.03 118.49 27.53 0.13 74.70
Major exporters 4/
Oct 29.23 57.09 2.28 33.94 22.43 0.02 32.21
Nov 28.95 56.44 2.48 33.75 23.13 0.02 30.97
Central Asia 5/ Oct 2.52 5.40 3/ 3.99 1.53 0.00 2.40
Nov 2.47 5.25 3/ 4.04 1.53 0.00 2.15
Afr Fr Z 6/ Oct 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.41 0.00 1.71
Nov 1.37 5.89 3/ 0.14 5.66 0.00 1.46
S Hemis 7/ Oct 15.09 14.82 0.18 4.40 11.19 0.01 14.49
Nov 14.82 14.82 0.18 4.38 11.54 0.01 13.89
Australia Oct 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
Nov 1.57 1.20 3/ 0.04 1.70 0.00 1.04
Brazil Oct 12.01 11.60 0.03 3.40 8.30 0.00 11.94
Nov 11.78 11.60 0.03 3.40 8.60 0.00 11.41
India Oct 10.03 30.50 1.60 24.75 4.00 0.00 13.38
Nov 10.01 30.00 1.80 24.50 4.10 0.00 13.21
Major importers 8/
Oct 44.89 42.93 38.13 80.49 2.70 0.11 42.64
Nov 44.80 41.63 38.97 80.54 2.84 0.11 41.90
Mexico Oct 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
Nov 0.77 1.58 0.85 2.00 0.45 0.03 0.72
China Oct 35.67 27.75 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 33.25
Nov 35.67 27.25 9.50 39.50 0.18 0.00 32.75
EU-27 9/ Oct 0.24 1.76 0.68 0.71 1.67 0.03 0.27
Nov 0.23 1.86 0.65 0.69 1.76 0.03 0.26
Turkey Oct 1.69 4.10 3.20 6.90 0.35 0.00 1.74
Nov 1.59 3.80 3.80 7.10 0.35 0.00 1.74
Pakistan Oct 2.50 7.60 3.10 10.70 0.05 0.03 2.42
Nov 2.50 7.00 3.60 10.70 0.10 0.03 2.27
Indonesia Oct 0.51 3/ 3.30 3.20 0.01 0.00 0.61
Nov 0.53 3/ 3.10 3.10 0.01 0.00 0.53
Thailand Oct 0.18 3/ 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.03 0.18
Nov 0.18 3/ 1.05 1.03 0.00 0.03 0.18
Bangladesh Oct 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Nov 1.78 0.14 7.30 7.40 0.00 0.01 1.81
Vietnam Oct 1.19 3/ 7.50 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.29
Nov 1.19 3/ 7.50 7.40 0.00 0.00 1.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally
reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Cote d’Ivoire Mali Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina Australia Brazil Lesotho South
Africa Tanzania Zambia and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and regions listed includes Japan Russia South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes intra-EU trade.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 317,135
: Positions :
: 24,415 48,308 74,267 112,311 156,855 90,787 24,052 301,780 303,482: 15,355 13,653
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,644) :
: -1,545 10,845 -5,088 6,417 3,014 5,732 -4,269 5,515 4,502: -872 142
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.7 15.2 23.4 35.4 49.5 28.6 7.6 95.2 95.7: 4.8 4.3
: Total Traders: 302 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 85 103 56 65 47 25 247 228:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week in narrow range trading. Overall chart patterns are not strong and it is possible that weaker prices are coming. Futures had held the same range for months but now are starting to look for lower prices and new demand as the US crop appears to be more than big enough. USDA did not update its production estimates this month but showed strong production last month. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 32% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather but showers about Friday. Temperatures will average mostly above normal but below normal this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 206 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 104.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 5, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,325 :
: Positions :
: 11,253 7,761 1,185 0 77 762 7,895 150 1,522 1,013 2,335 :
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 :
: 49 -435 20 0 7 90 422 -75 380 -33 -16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.8 36.4 5.6 0.0 0.4 3.6 37.0 0.7 7.1 4.8 10.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 84 :
: 23 13 6 0 . . 26 . 17 6 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week in both markets. It looks like offers are not appearing for nearby shipments from Brazil and Vietnam so the market is rallying looking for business. The rally continued last week even though CECAFE said that Brazil exported more than 3.0 million bags of Coffee last month.. The rally is coming despite ideas of big new crop production in both Brazil and Vietnam. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil next year despite stressful conditions earlier. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. A tropical system hit production areas last week but so far there have not been reports of damage or losses.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.224 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 107.32 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 104.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00, 114.00 and 116.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1410 January. Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1300 January, and resistance is at 1390, 1410, and 1430 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 376,077
: Positions :
: 31,343 71,224 98,449 146,742 162,855 77,565 27,975 354,099 360,503: 21,978 15,575
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: 7,448) :
: -242 -11,138 5,151 4,428 17,747 2,464 -3,482 11,801 8,277: -4,353 -829
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 18.9 26.2 39.0 43.3 20.6 7.4 94.2 95.9: 5.8 4.1
: Total Traders: 456 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133 124 146 118 110 44 27 377 343:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
153,819 96,332 58,909 12,684 4,980 3,016
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.6% 38.3% 8.2% 3.2% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 53 40 15 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,965 55,422 11,402 5,331 2,132 12,419
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 36.0% 7.4% 3.5% 1.4% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 34 15 13 10 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,670 5,539
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 3.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and lower in London last week. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term in New York but are indicating price weakness in London. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. A major storm was reported in western India and in Pakistan last week that could have affected Sugar and Cotton. Reports indicate that the worst of the storm did not get into production areas and that any losses or damage should be relatively minor. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1270, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 331.00, 327.00, and 324.00 March, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 345.00 March.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 30.7% at 32.6M Tons in 2H Oct. — Unica
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of October compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 32.6 million metric tons of cane in the period, a rise of 30.7% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 1.5 million tons of sugar, up 57.8%, and made 2.05 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 45.4%.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 32.1% sugar to 67.9% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 30.1% sugar and 69.9% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through Nov. 1, mills in the region crushed 542.9 million tons of cane, up 6.3% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 3.3% to 25.2 million tons, and ethanol output rose 8% to 29.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Nov. 1 was 35.1% sugar to 64.9% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 35.8% sugar and 64.2% ethanol.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,118,280
: Positions :
: 96,932 296,600 221,291 403,329 424,216 303,105 104,373 1,024,657 1,046,480: 93,623 71,801
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: 17,929) :
: 3,844 -7,989 1,129 -10,565 21,012 16,619 2,282 11,026 16,434: 6,903 1,494
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 26.5 19.8 36.1 37.9 27.1 9.3 91.6 93.6: 8.4 6.4
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 72 83 77 66 40 22 225 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
91,549 40,582 62,171 11,489 1,140 1,484
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 44.3% 67.9% 12.5% 1.2% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 46 44 7 4 8
Reportable Positions ===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,165 12,944 5,457 3,083 1,329 3,164
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
23.1% 14.1% 6.0% 3.4% 1.5% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 22 15 7 9 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,125 3,859
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 4.2%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and the weekly charts imply that a significant rally is possible over the next few weeks. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The quarterly grind data was mixed and left people wondering how good the demand for chocolate will be. Ideas are that demand could turn out to be very good due to the current price action. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices.
Overnight News: Dry conditions or light showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.281 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2410, and 2390 December, with resistance at 2510, 2530, and 2550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1870 December, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1990 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 335,153
: Positions :
: 54,952 42,627 77,159 120,649 173,846 64,930 27,440 317,690 321,071: 17,463 14,082
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: -12,743) :
: 7,674 3,733 -10,166 -8,669 -5,702 -317 376 -11,478 -11,759: -1,266 -985
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 12.7 23.0 36.0 51.9 19.4 8.2 94.8 95.8: 5.2 4.2
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 53 81 40 39 34 20 199 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
422,591 195,725 294,702 42,278 14,341 29,013
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.3% 69.7% 10.0% 3.4% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 46 49 16 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
70,465 4,181 34,882 3,206 1,197 42,785
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.7% 1.0% 8.3% 0.8% 0.3% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 10 20 18 9 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,237 1,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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