About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,602 13,030-13,786 13,779 14,420
Corn Yield 167.3 164.5-170.0 168.4 176.4
Harvested Acres 81.3 79.2-81.8 81.8 81.7
Soybean Production 3,513 3,396-3,609 3,550 4,428
Soybean Yield 46.6 45.9-47.6 46.9 50.6
Harvested Acres 75.4 74.5-77.2 87.6
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 13,365 165.0 81.0 3,501 46.5 75.3
AgriSource 13,786 168.9 81.6 3,526 46.7 75.5
Allendale 13,785 168.5 N/A 3,541 46.8 N/A
DC Analysis 13,690 168.0 81.5 3,502 46.4 75.5
Doane 13,650 166.8 81.8 3,500 46.3 75.6
EDF Man 13,692 168.0 81.5 3,492 46.5 75.1
Farm Futures 13,474 168.3 80.1 3,609 47.6 75.9
Futures International 13,701 167.7 81.7 3,492 46.3 75.4
Grain Cycles 13,646 166.8 81.8 3,570 47.2 75.6
Hueber Report 13,701 167.9 81.6 3,492 46.6 75.3
INTL FCStone 13,702 170.0 80.6 3,539 47.5 74.5
Kapco Futures 13,685 167.3 81.8 3,530 47.0 75.1
Sid Love Consulting 13,496 166.0 81.3 3,447 45.9 75.1
Midland Research 13,650 166.8 81.8 3,510 46.4 75.6
Northstar 13,675 168.0 81.4 3,490 46.3 75.4
RJO Brien 13,644 167.2 N/A 3,501 46.5 N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,468 46.0 75.4
US Commodities 13,372 165.5 80.8 3,396 46.2 75.3
VantageRM 13,717 167.9 81.7 3,526 46.9 75.2
Western Milling 13,030 164.5 79.2 3,591 46.5 77.2
Zaner Ag Hedge 13,642 167.6 81.4 3,558 47.2 75.4

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 1,799 1,479-1,959 1,929
Soybeans 429 306-521 460
Wheat 1,035 995-1,078 1,043
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 1,650 410 1,053
AgriSource 1,935 437 1,040
Allendale 1,959 494 1,022
DC Analysis 1,739 414 1,025
Doane 1,810 395 1005
EDF Man 1,949 422 1,040
Farm Futures 1,816 470 1,073
Futures International 1,900 427 1,043
Grain Cycles 1,821 480 1,043
Hueber Report 1,851 433 1043
INTL FCStone 1,861 521 995
Kapco Futures 1,774 440 1,040
Sid Love Consulting 1,645 380 1,026
Midland Research 1,849 420 1,011
Northstar 1,925 415 1,025
RJO Brien 1,712 401 1,042
RMC 1,910 378 1,042
US Commodities 1,481 306 1,021
VantageRM 1,866 435 1,018
Western Milling 1,479 520 1,078
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,842 418 1,043

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 323.9 322.7-324.4 324.0
Soybeans 110.3 109.9-113.1 109.9
Wheat 277.8 277.6-278.5 277.7
2019-20
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 299.5 291.1-304.1 302.6
Soybeans 95.0 88.0-109.4 95.2
Wheat 286.8 285.4-287.8 287.8
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 324.0 109.9 277.7 295.0 92.8 286.2
Allendale 324.4 110.6 278.5 302.9 95.7 287.6
Doane 324.0 109.9 278.0 300.0 95.0 287.0
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 303.0 94.5 287.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 94.0 287.4
Futures International N/A N/A N/A 300.0 91.8 286.1
Grain Cycles N/A N/A N/A 302.0 95.7 286.0
Hueber Report 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.7 94.8 287.6
INTL FCStone 322.7 113.1 277.6 304.1 109.4 285.5
Kapco Futures N/A N/A N/A 296.0 94.6 287.8
Northstar 324.0 109.9 277.7 300.0 94.2 287.0
RMC 324.0 109.9 277.7 302.0 95.0 287.8
US Commodities 324.0 109.9 277.7 291.1 88.0 287.6
Western Milling 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.5 96.0 286.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 324.0 109.9 277.7 299.2 93.7 285.4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher as the market gets ready for the USDA reports on Friday. Little change is expected for Wheat data or supply and demand estimates. USDA did a new survey of Spring Wheat producers to find final production, so some changes could be made there. These changes would most likely lower production by a little bit. Egypt bough Wheat from France and Russia yesterday at slightly lower prices. Russia continued to dominate the world market even with higher prices, but Europe has been making sales at prices cheaper than Russia in the last couple of weeks. US export sales were on the weaker side once again last week. US Winter crops are being planted now but planting is starting to wind down as progress is over 85% complete. Australia is once again seeing significant yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina, especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has started to suffer. The weaker crops in the south have supported better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rain on Wednesday and Thursday, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 517, 524, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 438, 451, and 455 December. Support is at 421, 416, and 414 December, with resistance at 437, 439, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 and 504 December. Support is at 520, 518, and 514 December, and resistance is at 532, 534, and 536 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was higher and found renewed buying interest after holding the lows from Monday. The Dollar was higher again yesterday but there is not much offer in the market and it looks like someone needs to buy Rice. Ideas were that speculators were buying again to cover short positions or to probe the long side. The harvest is mostly over in all areas. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage. The export sales report was strong again last week and showed good demand for long grain. Export demand has been holding well and this gives hope for higher prices down the road. The best buyer has been Mexico but Central America has been buying in greater volumes as well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1156 January. Support is at 1183, 1174, and 1158 January, with resistance at 1208, 1213, and 1220 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 6
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.39 9.18 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.05 9.41 0.00
Brokens 8.68 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little lower with Corn seeing some light volume selling and very little buying interest for most of the session. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand and charts are starting to look weaker. The harvest was slow in many parts of the Midwest last week due to snow and rain. Activity should be able to increase this week as the weather will be cold but drier. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very good results. A few farmers have reported yield potential above a year ago. These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in central and eastern states have been more varied. Export demand remains bad but ethanol demand should continue to improve as petroleum prices have been firming. USDA will issue its latest production and supply and demand estimates on Friday and many expect the agency to cut export demand again in its projections and to increase ending stocks. Production and yields are expected to be lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 378, 377, and 375 December, and resistance is at 386, 392, and 397 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 295, 294, and 288 December, and resistance is at 305, 307, and 309 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower but Soybean Meal closed slightly higher. The market is starting to focus on the big reports from USDA that will be released on Friday. The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn last week as producers hope to get the Soybeans out before the snow makes it more difficult. Yield reports show that yields are generally better in western areas than to the east with some very good yields reported in the west. The market is keeping a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks, but these forecasts have been around for a while and the rains have not really come yet. USDA will release its next monthly supply and demand and production reports on Friday. USDA need not make any real changes in the supply and demand reports this month. Production might not change that much from last month but the trade expects production and ending stocks to be cut.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 930, 925, and 922 January, and resistance is at 945, 947, and 953 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 301.00, 300.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 305.00, 307.00, and 309.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3200 and 3290 December. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3100 December, with resistance at 3290, 3230, and 3260 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly lower with Chicago. The harvest is starting to wind down with Saskatchewan and Manitoba about 90% done. Alberta is still behind but is harvesting as fast as possible now. The harvest remains active and wire services report that Canola is entering the commercial system. Demand from crushers is reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with stronger world vegetable oils markets and despite reports of strong exports. The market is expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data tomorrow. Price action is very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 451.00 and 443.00 January. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 464.00, 466.00, and 468.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2560 and 2620 January. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2400 January, with resistance at 2550, 2590, and 2620 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +50 Dec +178 Dec +90 Dec +45 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +55 Dec +95 Dec +46 Jan
January +51 Mar +80 Mar +50 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 5
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 432.20 -30.00 Jan 2020 up 4.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.10 10.00 Jan 2020 dn 0.10
Basis: Vancouver 480.10 18.00 Jan 2020 dn 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 615.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 622.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 637.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 617.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 625.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 640.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 612.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 490.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,465.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 163.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1340)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 305,800 lots, or 10.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,276 3,276 3,276 0 0 0
Jan-20 3,388 3,394 3,336 3,390 3,383 3,368 -15 267,378 238,738
Mar-20 – – – 3,442 3,442 3,442 0 0 64
May-20 3,689 3,700 3,655 3,698 3,689 3,684 -5 35,874 89,902
Jul-20 3,736 3,736 3,736 3,736 3,732 3,736 4 2 50
Sep-20 3,762 3,773 3,732 3,773 3,763 3,750 -13 2,546 10,472
Corn
Turnover: 1,525,468 lots, or 28.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 1,821 1,824 1,821 -3 0 12,000
Jan-20 1,873 1,874 1,853 1,854 1,872 1,862 -10 1,058,430 1,325,410
Mar-20 1,901 1,902 1,885 1,885 1,900 1,894 -6 149,248 466,162
May-20 1,955 1,955 1,939 1,940 1,952 1,945 -7 273,256 776,382
Jul-20 1,975 1,978 1,961 1,961 1,977 1,970 -7 666 8,470
Sep-20 1,999 2,001 1,986 1,986 1,999 1,992 -7 43,868 99,802
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,799,554 lots, or 81.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 2,975 2,987 2,917 2,931 3,001 2,938 -63 4,614 4,772
Jan-20 2,960 2,967 2,912 2,921 2,967 2,935 -32 1,745,356 1,776,936
Mar-20 2,880 2,890 2,838 2,846 2,888 2,861 -27 102,932 281,446
May-20 2,855 2,872 2,818 2,827 2,869 2,839 -30 771,538 2,137,806
Jul-20 2,879 2,885 2,838 2,847 2,885 2,859 -26 142 1,562
Aug-20 2,885 2,885 2,860 2,866 2,905 2,867 -38 26 140
Sep-20 2,917 2,922 2,865 2,876 2,919 2,885 -34 174,946 698,306
Palm Oil
Turnover: 3,611,998 lots, or 19.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 5,300 5,380 5,300 5,380 5,274 5,370 96 22 20
Jan-20 5,360 5,434 5,338 5,382 5,410 5,380 -30 3,142,636 884,616
Feb-20 5,446 5,446 5,440 5,440 5,454 5,444 -10 8 706
Mar-20 5,560 5,584 5,552 5,552 5,570 5,564 -6 6 22
Apr-20 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,474 5,510 5,474 -36 2 6
May-20 5,580 5,606 5,528 5,550 5,620 5,564 -56 463,320 407,174
Jun-20 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 8
Jul-20 – – – 5,580 5,580 5,580 0 0 606
Aug-20 – – – 5,276 5,328 5,276 -52 0 2
Sep-20 5,404 5,428 5,362 5,376 5,444 5,392 -52 6,004 28,358
Oct-20 – – – 5,486 5,486 5,486 0 0 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,477,072 lots, or 93.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 6,316 6,316 6,252 6,252 6,284 6,284 0 4 4
Jan-20 6,350 6,380 6,296 6,350 6,410 6,342 -68 1,135,610 816,578
Mar-20 6,362 6,362 6,362 6,362 6,446 6,362 -84 2 706
May-20 6,314 6,318 6,234 6,276 6,344 6,280 -64 324,016 444,958
Jul-20 – – – 6,330 6,340 6,330 -10 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,114 6,176 6,114 -62 0 0
Sep-20 6,252 6,258 6,176 6,212 6,276 6,224 -52 17,440 122,346
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322