Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. September Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Nov 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2019—- —-Aug 2019—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 116,035,733 255,858,791 134,734,058 297,088,598
coffee, roasted 8,603,618 18,970,978 8,485,474 18,710,470
instant 3,969,551 8,752,860 4,231,869 9,331,271
cocoa beans 12,971,016 28,601,090 17,500,874 38,589,427
10 lbs or over 1,806,795 3,983,983 2,207,768 4,868,128
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,417,165 20,764,849 8,974,785 19,789,401
not defatted 5,165,039 11,388,911 5,091,327 11,226,376
defatted 4,544,098 10,019,736 4,243,026 9,355,872
unsweetened 8,020,556 17,685,326 9,464,139 20,868,426
sweetened 85,246 187,967 103,711 228,683
coating 3,114,251 6,866,923 2,894,459 6,382,282
chocolate 10,055,884 22,173,224 10,161,184 22,405,411
General Comments: Cotton was mostly a little lower as the trade started to look ahead to the next round of USDA production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Friday. USDA showed very good harvest progress in its reports last night and the harvest is now slightly ahead of last year and the five-year average. Some buying interest came from talk that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Both sides are reporting good progress but there has been no indication that China is interested in buying US Cotton in the short term. Cotton producers hope that China will buy some Cotton from the US but China has not been doing this. Export demand for the US has not been real strong as world economies are turning softer. The harvest is active. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather except for some rain late in the week and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions but rain is possible on Thursday and Sunday. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 60.80 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,105 bales, from 33,212 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 53% harvested, from 46%last week, 48% last year, and 51% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6340, 6290, and 6220 December, with resistance of 6500, 6550, and 6570 December.
DJ U.S. September Cotton Exports-Nov 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 11,899,443 15,401,672 21,551,203 6,769,938
1 to 1 1/8 inch 60,388,842 72,957,500 113,187,977 70,438,363
upland 1 1/8 and over 86,702,652 131,233,969 169,366,064 73,570,068
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 39,145,920 5,597,167 7,351,582 4,900,664
All cotton 198,136,857 225,190,308 311,456,826 155,679,033
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 54,654 70,739 98,984 31,094
1 to 1 1/8 inch 277,364 335,091 519,868 323,521
upland 1 1/8 and over 398,222 602,753 777,892 337,905
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 179,796 25,708 33,766 22,509
All cotton 910,035 1,034,291 1,430,510 715,028
General Comments: FCOJ was mixed yesterday. Futures are starting to look for lower prices and new demand as the US crop appears to be more than big enough. Demand remains a problem as many now prefer to get Vitamin C in other ways. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year and USDA could increase production estimates again on Friday. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above last year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 100.00, 101.00, and 102.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in both markets as the US Dollar held chart support and started to rally again. Some speculators were selling based on the Dollar strength while others were buying based on reports of less offer from Brazil and Vietnam. The has been stronger overall despite ideas of big new crop production in both Brazil and Vietnam as exporters are running tight on supplies. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Rains are expected to start again in Brazil Coffee areas this week for good flowering and initial development potential. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil next year despite stressful conditions earlier. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.235 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.63 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers starting tomorrow and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 104.00 December. Support is at 102.00, 100.00, and 99.00 December, and resistance is at 105.00, 106.00 and 108.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1350 January. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1260 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1390 January.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and higher in London. London December led the way as traders close out positions before the contract goes into delivery at the middle of the month. Overall chart trends are still trying to turn up for the medium term but ideas of big supplies have hurt rally efforts. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Brazil is starting to produce a little more Sugar and a little less Ethanol as mills react to prices and market conditions. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather until scattered showers return tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal. USDA said that Sugar beets are now 70% harvested, from 58% last week, 90% last year and 91% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 and 348.00 March. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 327.00 March, and resistance is at 339.00, 343.00, and 345.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading. Harvest is active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. Chart trends are mixed in New York but still mostly down in London. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa into the world market.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.316 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2390 December, with resistance at 2510, 2530, and 2550 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1850, 1790, and 1660 December. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1990 December.