About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 06, 2019 1 Oct 31, 2019
SOYBEAN November Nov. 06, 2019 3 Oct 29, 2019

DJ U.S. September Grain Imports-Nov 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2019—- —-Aug 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 19,051 42,007 159,051 350,707
spring wheat 7,301,901 16,100,692 6,750,538 14,884,936
winter wheat 10,786,328 23,783,853 811,678 1,789,750
wheat/meslin 48,736,909 107,464,884 54,138,313 119,374,980
TOTAL WHEAT 66,844,189 147,391,437 61,859,580 136,400,374
barley 3,307,261 7,292,511 7,084,699 15,621,761
oats 548,204 1,208,790 335,575 739,943
corn 37,059,628 81,716,480 69,226,475 152,644,377
other corn 2,838,053 6,257,907 4,073,436 8,981,926
TOTAL CORN 39,897,681 87,974,387 73,299,911 161,626,304

DJ U.S. Sep Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Nov 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Sep 2019—- —-Aug 2019—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 28,595,425 63,052,912 37,563,188 82,826,830
palm kernel oil 19,783,848 43,623,385 26,549,569 58,541,800
palm oil 123,156,131 271,559,269 118,299,091 260,849,496
soybean 31,298,445 69,013,071 28,188,393 62,155,407
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 11,451,359 25,250,247 14,984,410 33,040,624
rapeseed oil
edible 151,488,391 334,031,902 162,379,582 358,046,978
rapeseed oil,
inedible 1,032 2,276 0 0

DJ U.S. September Grain Exports-Nov 5
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
Barley 3,622,005 3,755,000 5,650,340 2,929,000
Corn /1 2,028,505,000 2,825,045,000 2,882,194,000 5,255,568,000
Sorghum 203,701,000 312,340,000 160,368,000 73,155,000
Oats 2,472,120 1,437,887 2,042,983 2,430,834
Rye 1,415,090 1,220,900 151,100 630,908
Wheat /1 2,312,813,585 2,571,064,128 1,943,232,013 1,847,652,914
wheat flour /1 24,081,850 25,214,831 23,524,471 25,047,393
Malt 34,236,170 29,265,120 29,026,195 34,389,121
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
Barley 166,356 172,464 259,515 134,527
Corn /1 79,857,895 111,215,968 113,465,801 206,900,449
Sorghum 8,019,272 12,296,156 6,313,344 2,879,956
Oats 170,314 99,061 140,749 167,469
Rye 55,709 48,064 5,948 24,837
Wheat /1 84,980,480 94,469,465 71,400,821 67,888,926
wheat flour /1 530,914 555,892 518,626 552,201
Malt 75,477,848 64,518,557 63,991,817 75,815,047
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. September Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Nov 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
soybeans 3,890,013,028 4,931,169,572 3,680,451,200 3,237,330,427
soyoil 22,016,767 75,108,975 79,071,812 55,188,088
crude 13,938,865 62,810,085 68,326,636 41,653,346
refined 96,396 176,713 60,647 82,871
other/1 7,756,026 11,902,338 10,413,526 13,184,233
hydrogenated 225,480 219,839 271,003 267,638
cottonseed oil 4,383,277 1,474,727 1,411,674 1,883,489
crude 304,859 105,728 0 73,422
refined 2,617,235 336,228 671,731 791,737
other/1 1,461,183 1,032,771 739,943 1,018,330
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 81,329 105,088 3,559,356 19,619
sunseed oil 3,316,099 4,629,145 3,923,345 3,874,096
rapeseed 20,900,442 12,157,364 13,022,019 25,286,358
rapeseed oil 7,885,744 9,518,519 8,296,136 9,868,291
crude 2,652,235 3,935,316 3,457,492 4,522,333
refined 5,233,509 5,583,203 4,838,644 5,345,958
linseed meal 153,563 96,500 0 264,390
cottonseed meal 12,515,041 11,125,597 7,131,502 6,067,990
soymeal 684,757,972 806,359,325 716,627,482 822,935,166
soymeal/flour 180,481,283 124,273,876 85,008,540 213,621,344
soymeal hulls 16,092,000 9,154,000 22,254,000 16,529,000
lard 1,655,938 1,717,399 1,587,791 1,113,281
edible tallow 11,783,842 9,632,277 9,228,080 8,579,447
inedible tallow 18,509,048 19,136,835 22,259,805 24,181,430
ch white grease 0 49,544 0 11,951
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Sep 19 Aug 19 Jul 19 Sep 18(*)
soybeans 142,932,044 181,187,606 135,232,044 118,950,310
soyoil 48,538,671 165,586,974 174,323,535 121,668,928
crude 30,729,942 138,472,558 150,634,473 91,829,925
refined 212,517 389,586 133,704 182,699
other/1 17,099,113 26,240,168 22,957,899 29,066,263
hydrogenated 497,098 484,662 597,459 590,041
cottonseed oil 9,663,473 3,251,217 3,112,209 4,152,383
crude 672,099 233,090 0 161,868
refined 5,770,016 741,256 1,480,914 1,745,482
other/1 3,221,358 2,276,871 1,631,295 2,245,034
hydrogenated 0 0 0 0
sunseeds 179,300 231,679 7,847,038 43,252
sunseed oil 7,310,748 10,205,520 8,649,497 8,540,921
rapeseed 46,077,595 26,802,404 28,708,643 55,746,886
rapeseed oil 17,385,093 20,984,746 18,289,852 21,755,861
crude 5,847,178 8,675,888 7,622,466 9,970,039
refined 11,537,914 12,308,858 10,667,386 11,785,822
linseed meal 169 106 0 291
cottonseed meal 13,795 12,264 7,861 6,689
soymeal 754,809 888,850 789,938 907,121
soymeal flour/me 198,945 136,987 93,705 235,475
soymeal hulls 17,738 10,090 24,531 18,220
lard 3,650,719 3,786,217 3,500,481 2,454,365
edible tallow 25,978,929 21,235,539 20,344,437 18,914,446
inedible tallow 40,805,473 42,189,507 49,074,478 53,310,937
ch white grease 0 109,226 0 26,347

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 4
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 31, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/31/2019 10/24/2019 11/01/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 3,134 49 318 11,808 5,090
CORN 275,575 391,231 1,284,425 3,753,082 9,980,411
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 172 194
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 798 1,294
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 67,000 58,320 22,797 375,482 159,744
SOYBEANS 1,480,632 1,578,604 1,245,862 9,552,517 8,621,105
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 293,360 558,015 340,564 10,930,347 8,955,187
Total 2,119,701 2,586,219 2,893,966 24,624,206 27,723,025
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 3-Nov 27-Oct 2018 Avg
Cotton Harvested 53 46 48 51
Corn Mature 96 93 100 100
Corn Harvested 52 41 74 75
Soybeans Harvested 75 62 81 87
Sorghum Harvested 78 65 62 72
Sugar beets Harvested 70 58 90 91
Sunflowers Harvested 31 17 49 62
Peanuts Harvested 84 77 74 78
Winter Wheat Planted 89 85 83 88
Winter Wheat Emerged 71 63 69 74

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Corn This Week 3 10 29 47 11
Corn Last Week 3 9 30 47 11
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 48 20

Winter Wheat This Week 4 9 30 45 12
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 9 31 44 12
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 9 37 42 9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower as Chicago. Futures found support on Friday on talk that China was interested in buying high protein Wheat in the US. However, there was no confirmation of business over the weekend or on Monday morning. China has already bought some US Wheat this year as Australia has big production problems again due to drought. They could easily buy more as both sides in the trade negotiations seem to be moving to a positive resolution for both sides. Russia continued to dominate the world market even with higher prices, but Europe has been making sales at prices cheaper than Russia in the last couple of weeks. US export sales were on the weaker side once again last week. US Winter crops are being planted now under uneven conditions. It has been cold but not cold enough to stop fieldwork. There was some rain seen in the Midwest, but it should now be drier. Australia is once again seeing significant yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina, especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has started to suffer. The weaker crops in the south have supported better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get rain on Wednesday and Thursday, then mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 517, 524, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 438, 451, and 455 December. Support is at 421, 416, and 414 December, with resistance at 427, 437, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 and 504 December. Support is at 520, 518, and 514 December, and resistance is at 532, 534, and 536 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to the US Dollar movements. The Dollar held against a previous support area and started to turn higher. The harvest is mostly over in all areas and USDA has stopped reporting progress. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage. The export sales report was strong again last week and showed good demand for long grain. Export demand has been holding well and this gives hope for higher prices down the road. The best buyer has been Mexico but Central America has been buying in greater volumes as well.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather except for some rain on Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1156 January. Support is at 1174, 1158, and 1150 January, with resistance at 1196, 1208, and 1213 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with Corn seeing some light volume selling and very little buying interest for most of the session. Oats look ready to rally more in the coming weeks based on the charts. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand and really did not seem interested in going too far in either direction. The harvest was slow in many parts of the Midwest last week due to snow and rain. Activity should be able to increase this week as the weather will be cold but drier. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very good results. A few farmers have reported yield potential above a year ago. These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in central and eastern states have been more varied. Export demand remains bad but ethanol demand should continue to improve as petroleum prices have been firming. USDA will issue its latest production and supply and demand estimates on Friday and many expect the agency to cut export demand again in its projections and to increase ending stocks. Production is more difficult to estimate due to the uneven crops, but USDA might not drop yield estimates very much or it could leave them about unchanged.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 382, 378, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 397, and 399 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 310 and 320 December. Support is at 295, 294, and 288 December, and resistance is at 300, 305, and 307 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher and Soybean Oil was sharply higher. Soybean Meal was lower. Soybeans and Soybean Oil found support from reports of good progress by both sides in the trade talks with China. China and the US both say that the chance for a trade truce and increased Chinese buying of US Agricultural goods is real. The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn last week as producers hope to get the Soybeans out before the snow makes it more difficult. Yield reports show that yields are generally better in western areas than to the east with some very good yields reported in the west. The market is keeping a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks, but these forecasts have been around for a while and the rains have not really come yet. USDA will release its next monthly supply and demand and production reports on Friday. USDA need not make any real changes in the supply and demand reports this month. Production might not change that much from last month, either.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 930, 925, and 922 January, and resistance is at 945, 947, and 953 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 301.00, 300.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3200 and 3290 December. Support is at 3150, 3130, and 3100 December, with resistance at 3190, 3200, and 3230 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on some speculative buying tied to the strength in Chicago markets. The harvest is starting to wind down with Saskatchewan and Manitoba about 90% done. Alberta is still behind but is harvesting as fast as possible now. The harvest remains active and wire services report that Canola is entering the commercial system. Demand from crusher is reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with stronger world vegetable oils markets and despite reports of strong exports. Price action is very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 451.00 and 443.00 January. Support is at 458.00, 455.00, and 454.00 January, with resistance at 464.00, 466.00, and 468.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2560 and 2620 January. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2400 January, with resistance at 2550, 2580, and 2600 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow tomorrow and late in the week. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +49 Dec +176 Dec +90 Dec +48 Jan +12 Dec N/A
December +51 Dec +95 Dec +49 Jan
January +51 Mar +80 Mar +50 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 4
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 428.20 -30.00 Jan 2020 up 6.59
Basis: Thunder Bay 472.20 10.00 Jan 2020 up 4.00
Basis: Vancouver 480.20 18.00 Jan 2020 up 4.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 607.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 617.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 632.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 637.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 610.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 620.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 635.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 640.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 605.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 487.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,440 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 163.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1300)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 177,108 lots, or 6.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,276 3,271 3,276 5 2 100
Jan-20 3,386 3,398 3,363 3,388 3,384 3,383 -1 141,226 230,200
Mar-20 3,442 3,442 3,442 3,442 3,425 3,442 17 2 64
May-20 3,689 3,700 3,678 3,697 3,664 3,689 25 34,062 85,170
Jul-20 – – – 3,732 3,717 3,732 15 0 50
Sep-20 3,761 3,775 3,752 3,773 3,738 3,763 25 1,816 10,120
Corn
Turnover: 1,362,050 lots, or 25.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,824 1,837 1,824 -13 2 12,000
Jan-20 1,876 1,882 1,865 1,874 1,884 1,872 -12 941,512 1,329,064
Mar-20 1,902 1,908 1,894 1,903 1,908 1,900 -8 120,608 443,614
May-20 1,952 1,960 1,946 1,955 1,960 1,952 -8 266,662 768,342
Jul-20 1,980 1,981 1,972 1,977 1,984 1,977 -7 1,292 8,376
Sep-20 2,002 2,006 1,995 1,999 2,005 1,999 -6 31,974 102,562
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,067,612 lots, or 60.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 3,009 3,027 2,978 2,987 3,009 3,001 -8 3,906 5,536
Jan-20 2,972 2,983 2,954 2,963 2,969 2,967 -2 1,269,186 1,815,526
Mar-20 2,901 2,908 2,880 2,886 2,898 2,888 -10 115,964 220,722
May-20 2,875 2,884 2,855 2,865 2,871 2,869 -2 554,074 2,112,208
Jul-20 2,882 2,899 2,873 2,880 2,888 2,885 -3 132 1,596
Aug-20 2,894 2,907 2,894 2,907 2,899 2,905 6 14 136
Sep-20 2,927 2,934 2,908 2,917 2,925 2,919 -6 124,336 693,486
Palm Oil
Turnover: 4,124,988 lots, or 22.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 – – – 5,274 5,274 5,274 0 0 2
Jan-20 5,328 5,456 5,314 5,404 5,248 5,410 162 3,457,324 881,586
Feb-20 5,418 5,484 5,418 5,424 5,276 5,454 178 32 712
Mar-20 5,654 5,654 5,502 5,564 5,444 5,570 126 8 24
Apr-20 5,510 5,514 5,510 5,514 5,422 5,510 88 6 8
May-20 5,546 5,676 5,534 5,608 5,478 5,620 142 652,612 398,158
Jun-20 – – – 5,600 5,460 5,600 140 0 8
Jul-20 5,470 5,622 5,470 5,570 5,406 5,580 174 16 606
Aug-20 – – – 5,328 5,328 5,328 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,392 5,484 5,380 5,424 5,336 5,444 108 14,982 26,834
Oct-20 5,398 5,554 5,398 5,554 5,374 5,486 112 8 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 2,052,706 lots, or 13.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 6,330 6,330 6,262 6,300 6,222 6,284 62 16 6
Jan-20 6,346 6,490 6,340 6,378 6,306 6,410 104 1,618,836 858,394
Mar-20 6,356 6,502 6,356 6,410 6,356 6,446 90 34 706
May-20 6,314 6,408 6,286 6,328 6,250 6,344 94 401,184 435,868
Jul-20 – – – 6,340 6,264 6,340 76 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,176 6,176 6,176 0 0 0
Sep-20 6,226 6,330 6,226 6,272 6,196 6,276 80 32,636 119,450
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322