Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with U.S. Trade Balance at 7:30 A.M., ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 9:00 A.M., API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M. and host of many Earnings that could slow this Stock Market down. Earnings could stifle the euphoria but quite frankly this market is pricing in CAPITALISM not communism or socialism. Free Markets For Free Men always work… If you have a problem with that talk to some rich guy in Venezuela ten years ago and now he is a pauper on the street. Bernie Sanders had no LOYALTY to him … GO Figure.
On the Corn front, the market is not keying in on the U.S. market. Technicians have the numbers that 385, if critical support and the funds will pile in and short the market further. I welcome these guys to do so, like I welcome the algorithm traders to trade a headline. Please guys, pile on, so my farmers and foot soldiers will make up their money. Another point is when we close Phase One of the U.S.-China Trade Deal we will have a short covering rally. The USDA Crop Progress showed U.S. Corn harvest at 52% complete, which is below the five-year average of 75% and below the streets expectations of 58%. Minnesota has 44% versus the five-year average of 75%. Good to Excellent in the top 18 Corn producing states remained the same at 58%. Now it does not take a genius to look at these numbers or my Mother and Father did not cheat to get me into Harvard or USC and/or and other Ivy League school. It is plain and simple the numbers DO NOT ADD UP! And they do not work! In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 383 ½ which is a ¼ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 384 ¾ to 383. China let’s close Phase One and let our economies flourish and the U.S. Farmer. That’s an even deal to me.
On the Ethanol front, today is the Last Trading Day in the November contract. Activity is abound as the December and January contract traded, and it looked like a spread. And a bear spread as investors contemplate the U.S.-China trade deal and what they may take advantage of in the wake of false news. In the overnight electronic session the December contract is currently trading at 1.405 which is .009 lower. The market is currently showing 2 bids @ 1.406 and 1 offer @ 1.446 with two contracts traded and Open Interest at 541 contracts.
On the Crude Oil front, “it is in the cards!” The Stock Market is rolling and so is CAPITALISM! Which brings the ingenuity one would find to make a difference and win. Unlike communism and socialism where you have no god but government. Hey Venezuela, Great Britain, and the Third Reich, How did that work out for you. I guess, just ask George Soros, The Hungarian Jew who had skin in the game and did nothing to help his people. Skin in the game is how this nation was formed not by an idealistic idiot that sold his own people down the river. Now Saudi Aramco is going public in December, but the reality of any rally is shortages on Distillates and Gasoline. In the overnight electronic session the December Crude Oil is currently trading at 5703 which is 49 points higher. The trading range has been 5712 to 5630.
On the Natural Gas front Cold weather is enticing the bulls to get off their perch. The rally continues as more forecast of cold weather and the great debate global cooling versus global warming seems serious when the wolf is barking at the door. In the overnight electronic session the December Corn is currently trading at 2.861 which is 4 cents higher. The trading range has been 2.905 to 2.817.
Have a Great Trading Day!
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374