About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was slightly lower and closed near the lows of the week. Some buying interest came from talk that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Both sides are reporting good progress but there has been no indication that China is interested in buying US Cotton in the short term. Cotton producers hope that China will buy some Cotton from the US but China has not been doing this. China reported that imports from all sources was down 38% from last year in September. Export demand for the US has not been real strong as world economies are turning softer. The harvest is active. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 61.37 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,212 bales, from 30,972 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6370, 6220, and 6180 December, with resistance of 6550, 6570, and 6600 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 312,492
: Positions :
: 25,960 37,463 79,355 105,895 153,841 85,055 28,321 296,265 298,980: 16,227 13,511
: Changes from: October 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,663) :
: -1,717 -1,100 -2,435 7,069 5,050 1,040 2,023 3,957 3,538: 706 1,125
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 12.0 25.4 33.9 49.2 27.2 9.1 94.8 95.7: 5.2 4.3
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 93 101 60 66 48 26 249 231:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and trends turned down on the daily and weekly charts. Futures had held the same range for months but now are starting to look for lower prices and new demand as the US crop appears to be more than big enough. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above last year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 100.00, 101.00, and 102.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 21,656 :
: Positions :
: 11,205 8,196 1,164 0 70 673 7,473 225 1,142 1,047 2,351 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2019 :
: 31 203 -203 0 0 -54 781 46 255 127 108 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.7 37.8 5.4 0.0 0.3 3.1 34.5 1.0 5.3 4.8 10.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 78 :
: 22 12 6 0 . . 23 . 16 5 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week in New York. London was higher for the week and unchanged on Friday. The rally is coming despite ideas of big new crop production in both Brazil and Vietnam as exporters are running tight on supplies. The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell. The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected to start again in Coffee areas on Monday. Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil next year despite stressful conditions earlier. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.234 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 102.74 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 104.00 December. Support is at 97.00, 96.00, and 94.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 103.00 and 105.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1350 January. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1260 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1390 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 368,630
: Positions :
: 31,585 82,362 93,298 142,314 145,108 75,102 31,457 342,299 352,226: 26,331 16,404
: Changes from: October 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: -3,016) :
: 546 -4,050 -4,039 -3,047 1,766 199 -116 -6,341 -6,439: 3,325 3,423
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.6 22.3 25.3 38.6 39.4 20.4 8.5 92.9 95.5: 7.1 4.5
: Total Traders: 469 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 128 144 120 107 46 26 386 342:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
157,116 99,665 61,451 13,750 5,006 2,280
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.4% 39.1% 8.8% 3.2% 1.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 52 38 14 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,703 58,538 12,408 5,065 3,213 11,521
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.0% 37.3% 7.9% 3.2% 2.0% 7.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 40 13 13 9 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,723 2,700
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 1.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and in London last week. Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. A major storm was reported in western India and in Pakistan last week that could have affected Sugar and Cotton. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather until scattered showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 341.00 and 348.00 March. Support is at 334.00, 331.00, and 327.00 March, and resistance is at 339.00, 343.00, and 345.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,100,352
: Positions :
: 93,088 304,588 220,163 413,894 403,204 286,487 102,091 1,013,632 1,030,046: 86,720 70,306
: Changes from: October 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 40,097) :
: 7,487 3,447 26,283 7,683 7,074 -2,346 6,126 39,106 42,931: 991 -2,834
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 27.7 20.0 37.6 36.6 26.0 9.3 92.1 93.6: 7.9 6.4
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 74 85 81 66 39 23 225 207:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,748 45,422 64,699 12,827 891 1,653
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 46.0% 65.5% 13.0% 0.9% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
135 45 44 7 4 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,762 14,308 7,806 2,806 1,530 4,599
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.0% 14.5% 7.9% 2.8% 1.5% 4.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 22 14 6 11 15
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,873 3,262
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 3.3%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher after a big rally on Friday. The market had turned trends down on Thursday but could not follow through and bulls bought and pushed the market through the losses. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The quarterly grind data was mixed and left people wondering how good the demand for chocolate will be. Chart trends are mixed in New York but still mostly down in London. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa into the world market.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.339 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2420, 2390, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2500, 2530, and 2550 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1850, 1790, and 1660 December. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1900, 1940, and 1950 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 347,896
: Positions :
: 47,278 38,894 87,325 129,317 179,548 65,248 27,063 329,168 332,830: 18,728 15,067
: Changes from: October 22, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,795) :
: 2,588 1,652 -1,781 321 1,503 3,830 4,413 4,958 5,787: 837 7
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.6 11.2 25.1 37.2 51.6 18.8 7.8 94.6 95.7: 5.4 4.3
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 64 90 42 43 35 20 202 177:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/29/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
423,417 200,887 299,813 39,380 14,773 28,687
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 47.4% 70.8% 9.3% 3.5% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
157 46 48 15 8 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
72,681 3,543 34,267 3,288 1,153 39,463
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.2% 0.8% 8.1% 0.8% 0.3% 9.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
40 7 15 10 15 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,764 1,718
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322