About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 04, 2019 110 Oct 31, 2019
SOYBEAN November Nov. 04, 2019 1426 Oct 29, 2019

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as USDA reported better export demand and as the US Dollar showed some weakness. Much of the buying came late in the day. US Winter crops are being planted now under generally cold conditions. Australia and Argentina have both been very dry and these conditions are expected to continue. The Bolsa de Buenos Aires cut its production estimates yesterday for Argentine Wheat due to the adverse weather conditions. Australia is once again seeing significant yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina, especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has started to suffer. The weaker crops in the south have supported better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 497 and 489 December. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 517, 524, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 410, and 401 December, with resistance at 427, 437, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 516 and 504 December. Support is at 518, 514, and 510 December, and resistance is at 529, 531, and 534 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher as export sales reports continued to hold fairly strong. Domestic demand is called quiet but farmers don’t appear real interested in selling. The harvest is mostly over in all areas and field yields appear to be generally below last year but still stronger than some analysts had expected. Milling quality is said to be lower on later harvested Rice but was good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1190, 1186, and 1174 January, with resistance at 1208, 1213, and 1220 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower. The export sales report showed bad demand once again. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and reports of somewhat better than expected yields. Harvest is now delayed due to rains and snows in growing areas and might not get started again until next week. Producers have been concentrating on Soybeans but some producers are also harvesting Corn. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very good results. A few farmers have reported yield potential above a year ago. These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in other states have been more varied. Some farmers are waiting for crops to dry down more before beginning the harvest. Harvest conditions were variable last week with some rain around and some very significant rains reported in the Midwest over the weekend. It is cool and the grounds will be slow to dry enough for further harvesting as some rain and snow showers are expected for the rest of this week
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 382, and 378 December, and resistance is at 392, 397, and 399 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 295, 294, and 288 December, and resistance is at 301, 305, and 309 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were near unchanged to higher after trading lower for much of the day. Cash markets are firm as commercials look for product and farmers hold back from sales. The export sales report was lower than in the last few weeks. Farmers are more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn but have had to stop due to big rains last weekend and rains and snows now appearing in much of the Midwest. Yield reports show that yields are generally better in western areas than to the east with some very good yields reported in the west. The two sides are still talking about a trade deal and hope to have a Phase One deal ready in November. There will be more meetings to find a more comprehensive deal that can be signed by both presidents but that deal will be much harder to put together. The market is keeping a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 930 and 913 January. Support is at 925, 922, and 918 January, and resistance is at 940, 945, and 947 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 302.00 and 296.00 December. Support is at 301.00, 300.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 306.00, 307.00, and 309.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3050, 3020, and 3000 December, with resistance at 3100, 3130, and 3150 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on some speculative long liquidation and some commercial selling as the harvest continues. Weaker Soybean Oil prices in Chicago hurt interest in Canola. The harvest is starting to wind down with Saskatchewan and Manitoba about 90% done. Some of the selling came in sympathy with the price action in Chicago Soybeans. The harvest remains active and wire services report that Canola is entering the commercial system. Slower progress is likely the rest of this week as the Prairies should see rain and snow. Demand from crusher is reported to be good. Palm Oil was lower in sympathy with weaker world vegetable oils markets and despite reports of strong exports.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.522 million tons, up 15.6% from September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 451.00 and 443.00 January. Support is at 455.00, 454.00, and 449.00 January, with resistance at 461.00, 464.00, and 466.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2450, 2400, and 2380 January, with resistance at 2520, 2550, and 2580 January.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Oct 31
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Oct. 27, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2283.5 627.6 197.5 413.1 30.0 1461.1 299.2 15.6 6088.4
Week Ago 2310.4 633.8 179.2 419.1 23.3 1313.8 332.5 22.0 5889.9
Year Ago 2841.5 708.6 203.8 398.2 58.2 1450.3 319.8 175.0 7260.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 426.8 132.1 79.5 85.2 11.0 515.5 35.2 6.2 1370.3
Week Ago 496.6 105.5 63.2 113.2 5.7 600.6 34.6 6.0 1476.7
To Date 4864.9 1047.8 739.7 938.3 35.5 4785.5 1259.2 91.5 14450.9
Year Ago 5251.0 788.7 610.7 780.3 51.8 4546.6 936.2 147.4 14231.7
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 355.5 106.3 13.5 58.1 0.7 271.3 43.4 0.3 1172.0
Week Ago 361.2 129.8 8.3 51.8 0.1 216.8 32.5 0.0 1095.7
To Date 4474.4 1448.9 151.1 351.8 2.0 2316.6 877.5 7.5 11040.7
Year Ago 5683.8 784.0 128.8 415.8 21.2 2325.4 552.6 133.3 11616.0
EXPORTS
This Week 357.7 94.1 46.6 82.6 0.4 285.2 72.9 0.0 1012.0
Week Ago 351.4 124.8 65.3 53.1 0.3 201.2 39.1 0.0 926.1
To Date 3794.8 1139.4 447.1 333.7 9.0 2014.6 848.5 12.5 9479.7
Year Ago 4455.7 663.2 475.7 354.5 48.0 1980.9 539.9 270.8 9621.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 95.1 9.0 12.4 27.7 0.4 203.9 5.0 11.9 412.5
Week Ago 62.5 15.3 9.0 28.0 0.2 222.1 3.7 9.8 368.4
To Date 989.6 82.6 86.2 308.2 8.0 2462.5 42.6 202.9 4505.4
Year Ago 1004.0 63.0 65.5 258.7 10.4 1923.8 45.2 281.5 4053.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier and cold into next week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November +53 Dec +175 Dec +90 Dec +57 Nov +12 Dec N/A
December +55 Dec +85 Dec +60 Nov
January +51 Mar +80 Mar +49 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 31
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Oct. 31, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 421.81 -28.09 Nov 2019 dn 0.90
Track Thunder Bay 467.40 10.00 Jan 2019 dn 2.20
Track Vancouver 475.40 18.00 Jan 2019 dn 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 585.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 615.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 622.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 587.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 617.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 625.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 585.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 470.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,380 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 160.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1630)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 143,060 lots, or 4.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 3,271 3,271 3,271 0 0 106
Jan-20 3,388 3,405 3,372 3,395 3,393 3,389 -4 130,014 216,512
Mar-20 – – – 3,425 3,425 3,425 0 0 36
May-20 3,653 3,668 3,642 3,665 3,656 3,654 -2 12,024 72,566
Jul-20 – – – 3,720 3,720 3,720 0 0 54
Sep-20 3,733 3,739 3,714 3,739 3,730 3,726 -4 1,022 9,152
Corn
Turnover: 1,477,016 lots, or 28.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,838 1,838 1,830 1,838 1,839 1,837 -2 940 12,580
Jan-20 1,873 1,888 1,869 1,887 1,881 1,877 -4 1,095,804 1,386,622
Mar-20 1,898 1,909 1,893 1,906 1,903 1,900 -3 63,448 407,086
May-20 1,953 1,963 1,948 1,961 1,955 1,955 0 267,904 759,580
Jul-20 1,975 1,984 1,973 1,984 1,979 1,978 -1 4,066 8,538
Sep-20 2,000 2,007 1,995 2,005 2,003 2,000 -3 44,854 99,008
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,769,328 lots, or 80.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 2,982 2,982 2,982 0 0 128
Dec-19 2,990 3,008 2,973 3,004 3,021 2,990 -31 33,986 7,622
Jan-20 2,959 2,971 2,938 2,968 2,982 2,954 -28 1,679,610 1,893,170
Mar-20 2,898 2,906 2,863 2,895 2,922 2,886 -36 109,010 98,140
May-20 2,853 2,872 2,830 2,867 2,884 2,853 -31 765,314 1,985,302
Jul-20 2,878 2,885 2,850 2,884 2,900 2,869 -31 176 1,588
Aug-20 2,888 2,911 2,888 2,911 2,908 2,899 -9 8 126
Sep-20 2,907 2,926 2,883 2,922 2,931 2,906 -25 181,224 662,506
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,747,464 lots, or 92.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 4,990 4,990 4,990 0 0 0
Dec-19 5,336 5,336 5,226 5,260 5,132 5,274 142 6 2
Jan-20 5,216 5,278 5,192 5,222 5,242 5,236 -6 1,516,300 745,952
Feb-20 – – – 5,264 5,264 5,264 0 0 708
Mar-20 5,440 5,442 5,440 5,442 5,410 5,440 30 4 22
Apr-20 – – – 5,420 5,420 5,420 0 0 6
May-20 5,430 5,506 5,412 5,448 5,476 5,462 -14 228,420 344,920
Jun-20 – – – 5,446 5,446 5,446 0 0 8
Jul-20 – – – 5,392 5,404 5,392 -12 0 606
Aug-20 – – – 5,314 5,314 5,314 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,320 5,370 5,292 5,316 5,354 5,332 -22 2,734 24,716
Oct-20 – – – 5,370 5,370 5,370 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,109,862 lots, or 69.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 – – – 6,334 6,334 6,334 0 0 0
Dec-19 6,182 6,182 6,182 6,182 6,218 6,182 -36 2 10
Jan-20 6,228 6,336 6,216 6,268 6,252 6,278 26 901,618 803,090
Mar-20 6,386 6,386 6,308 6,308 6,274 6,328 54 16 704
May-20 6,162 6,260 6,162 6,210 6,206 6,216 10 195,916 371,104
Jul-20 – – – 6,230 6,220 6,230 10 0 526
Aug-20 – – – 6,144 6,136 6,144 8 0 0
Sep-20 6,128 6,192 6,124 6,162 6,160 6,160 0 12,310 112,912
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322