Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in response to weak export sales. The demand is not good right now and the harvest is about to start-up after some big precipitation events in Texas and to the east in the last week. News that China had doubts that a deal that lasts can be made with the US hurt any demand ideas. The US is still planning to sign a phase one deal soon but negotiations after that could be very difficult and might cause the phase one deal to be cancelled in the end. Quality reports have been high until now and the crop yields appear to be in line with the USDA estimates. Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in the Delta and Southeast. There is some concern that quality could be lost as the result of big rains in the last week. Rains and snows are forecast for Texas this week and eastern areas should get more rains. Better harvest conditions should return this weekend.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 61.58 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 30,972 bales, from 25,516 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6400, 6370, and 6220 December, with resistance of 6600, 6680, and 6750 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 31
As of Oct 25. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 23,048 23,965 -917 27,933 29,354 -1,421
Mar 20 28,661 27,823 838 10,803 10,988 -185
May 20 13,297 12,679 618 1,311 1,315 -4
Jul 20 17,084 16,754 330 2,588 2,538 50
Dec 20 12,971 12,458 513 21,561 19,987 1,574
Mar 21 4,063 4,066 -3 632 632 0
May 21 1,634 1,635 -1 0 0 0
Jul 21 2,802 2,806 -4 0 0 0
Dec 21 440 440 0 912 912 0
Mar 22 440 440 0 0 0 0
Total 104,440 103,066 1,374 65,740 65,726 14
Oct 19 0
Dec 19 118,213 124,604 -6,391
Mar 20 74,586 71,917 2,669
May 20 11,751 10,448 1,303
Jul 20 12,140 10,866 1,274
Dec 20 19,840 18,291 1,549
Mar 21 1,077 1,127 -50
May 21 218 205 13
Jul 21 305 319 -14
Dec 21 94 58 36
Mar 22 0 0 0
Total 238,224 237,835 389
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher and the charts suggest a short-term low could be trying to form. Trends are down longer term after the big selling on Tuesday. Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates are bearish. Private sources show that there are less oranges per tree but the oranges are bigger and hold more acid. The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and some irrigation has been used. Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Rains are falling in Brazil and trees are flowering now.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January. Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 100.00, 101.00, and 102.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher as speculators continued to cover short positions amid a lack of offer in origin countries. London closed higher on reports of limited Vietnamese offers. Forecasts for the weekend call for warmer and drier weather in Brazil, but rains should return the next week. The Coffee areas are short on rain although there have been some timely rains to get the flowering going and to give producers the hopes for good crops. Timely rains will be needed to maintain the flowers and keep hopes for good crops alive. Coops and others report less on offer in Brazil right now and some appear to have sold all old crop supplies. This market could stay tight until cherries form and producers can make estimates on production potential. Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers. Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 2.241 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 101.56 ct/lb. Brazil will mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are likely again on Sunday. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 104.00 December. Support is at 97.00, 96.00, and 94.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 103.00 and 105.00 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1350 January. Support is at 1300, 1280, and 1260 January, and resistance is at 1340, 1360, and 1390 January.
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in quiet trading. The charts still show that trends are still trying to turn up. Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that a major storm is moving into eastern parts of the country and into Pakistan and that some cane could be lost. India still has a lot of Sugar in storage from previous crops. However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters. Europe and Russia are probably buying in the world market after poor growing seasons. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. There is some talk that dry weather could hit Brazil growing areas, but this is helping the harvest and is keeping sucrose levels higher.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather until scattered showers appear on Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March. Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1260, 1290, and 1300 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 333.00, and 331.00 December, and resistance is at 343.00, 345.00, and 348.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets and trends are turning down. Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels four weeks into the season. The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will be near to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.358 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 and 2270 December. Support is at 2390, 2370, and 2340 December, with resistance at 2450, 2500, and 2530 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1830, and 1760 December, with resistance at 1900, 1940, and 1950 December.